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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 13 at Las Vegas Raiders 17. Final.
Raiders -1 ✓U 45 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
Las Vegas Raiders 17, Packers 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:51, 3rd and 10, on Amik Robertson — 29.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:51 · 3rd and 10
Amik Robertson
Raiders
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
Dome
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Las Vegas Raiders 17–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, Raiders +29.1% win probability on one snap.
29.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Christian WatsonPackersQ3 7:15(7:15) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson to LV 6 for 77 yards (24-M.Peters). PENALTY on LV-24-M.Peters, Horse Collar Tackle, 3 yards, enforced at LV 6.
19.0pts
Daniel CarlsonPackersQ4 2:00(2:00) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
18.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — -0.07 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Packers152 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
Swing +29.1 for RaidersExpected points +2.54 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 4 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:51GB +29% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
3rd · 7:15LV +19% win prob(7:15) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson to LV 6 for 77 yards (24-M.Peters). PENALTY on LV-24-M.Peters, Horse Collar Tackle, 3 yards, enforced at LV 6.
4th · 2:00GB +19% win prob(2:00) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
2nd · 4:09GB +16% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left intended for 87-R.Doubs INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane at GB 31. 41-R.Spillane pushed ob at GB 7 for 24 yards (11-J.Reed).
3rd · 12:57GB +12% win prob(12:57) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 16-J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Ford at LV 46. 20-R.Ford to LV 37 for 9 yards (81-A.Hooper).
4th · 9:19GB +11% win prob(9:19) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 41-R.Spillane (24-M.Peters) at LV 38. 41-R.Spillane to LV 42 for 4 yards (27-P.Taylor).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st2:41Anders Carlson·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
2nd4:13Jakobi Meyers·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Jimmy Garoppolofrom Jimmy Garoppolo+73–7
2nd2:35Daniel Carlson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–10
3rd5:19Anders Carlson·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+313–10
4th15:00Josh Jacobs·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryRaiders
Packers3–5Raiders
285Total yards281
5.0Yards per play4.6
46%Success rate48%
33%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays4
16First downs19
2Sacks taken4
3Turnovers1
The read
Raiders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Packers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.39Packers: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.07Raiders: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Packers: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Raiders: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Raiders 3.
NotePackers outgained Raiders 285-281 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's play-action rate turned over: 14.3% in week 4 against 35.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 8.7% in week 4 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders5.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.5 pts, 9.9 points below their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
Q4 0:51 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at LV 35 · gained nothing · -2.54 EP · −25.7% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 79 yards from the GB 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
41%
Yards
564
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0166%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2071%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0443%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3423%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3057%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Raiders 47
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 47
Packers3Raiders0
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 7 to the Raiders 18
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Packers 40
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 22
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers3Raiders6
Packers3Raiders7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Packers 9
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Packers3Raiders10
Field goal4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
The period ended13 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Packers 35
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 40
Packers9Raiders10
Packers10Raiders10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 5
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 32
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Packers13Raiders10
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Raiders 3
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Packers 9
4th quarter44 plays
Packers13Raiders16
Packers13Raiders17
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Raiders 40
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 42 to the Raiders 49
Punt5 plays
No good10 plays, from the Raiders 33 to the Packers 34
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Raiders 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
