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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 9, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 5
It turned at Q4 0:51, 3rd and 10, on Amik Robertson — 29.1 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Las Vegas Raiders 17–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:51, Raiders +29.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:51 · 3rd and 10
Amik Robertson
Raiders
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
29.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Raiders won this one — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 3 giveaways.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — -0.07 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.39 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Jacobs's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 15:00 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Raiders’s 61 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Raiders 3.
Packers outgained Raiders 285-281 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's pass rate over expected, −9.5 pts, is past their previous low of −5.2 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
GB's blitz rate sent, 37.1%, is past their previous high of 32.3% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
LV's sack or hit rate, 5.9%, is past their previous low of 7.7% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
GB's play-action rate turned over: 14.3% in week 4 against 35.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
LV's play-action rate turned over: 8.7% in week 4 against 28.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-9.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.9 vs their 0.4 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 57 snaps
Raiders-2.7 ptsright on their number · −0.5 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers54.5%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 44 early downs
Raiders51.1%right on their number · −3.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Packers35.3%leaned — faked the run · +12.1 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Raiders28.6%inside their normal wobble · +6.9 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Packers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 41.7%.
Raiders33.3%right on their number · +7.4 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 51%
Tendencies room →Packers37.1%leaned — sent pressure · +14.8 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders17.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 32%
Tendencies room →Packers17.1%right on their number · +0.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Raiders5.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
GB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.5 pts, 9.9 points below their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LV
22/31, 208 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-0.7 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected
Passing · GB
16/30, 182 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-14.8 expected points added · -16.0% completion over expected
Receiving · GB
3/7 for 91 yds, 0 TD
24% of team targets · -2.8 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Davante Adams banked 1.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +1.3 | 95% | 94% | 34% | 61% | 1 car, 0 yd · 7/10, 75 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.9 | +0.1 | 84% | 75% | 17% | 0% | 20 car, 69 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 20 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.6 | −0.6 | 64% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 20 car, 76 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Featured Receiver | 11.6 | −3.5 | 84% | 85% | 24% | 73% | 1 car, -5 yd · 3/7, 91 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 10.7 | −1.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/31, 208 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 4 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Featured Receiver | 9.4 | −0.8 | 69% | 76% | 24% | 4% | 6/7, 34 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.5 | +1.7 | 94% | 94% | 14% | 7% | 4/4, 45 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +1.1 | 66% | 50% | 10% | 17% | 2/3, 39 yd |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 5.0 | −8.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/30, 182 yd, 3 INT · 2 car, 37 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.1 | 56% | 53% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.5 | 26% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Patrick TaylorRB · Receiving Back | 2.7 | −5.3 | 36% | 56% | 17% | 0% | 2 car, 2 yd · 2/5, 5 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 2.5 | +0.4 | 17% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 4 yd · 1/1, 11 yd |
| Ben SimsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | 16% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 12 yd |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.6 | 22% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.2 | 50% | 59% | 7% | 13% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −1.4 | 30% | 39% | 7% | 8% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −6.4 | 86% | 97% | 14% | 7% | 1/4, 4 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.3 | −3.5 | 28% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 2 car, 3 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:51) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left intended for 9-C.Watson INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Robertson at LV -6. Touchback.
Q4 0:51 · Packers · 3rd & 10 at LV 35 · gained nothing · -2.54 EP · −25.7% win probability
150 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 79 yards from the GB 17 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers3
Raiders0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Packers3Raiders6Packers3Raiders7How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Packers3Raiders10Packers9Raiders10Packers10Raiders10How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Packers13Raiders10Packers13Raiders16Packers13Raiders17How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/30 | 182 | 0 | 3 | 2 | −14.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 1 | +4.4 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Patrick Taylor |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 3 | 7 | 91 | 0 | 24% | −2.8 |
| Luke Musgrave | 6 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McDuffie | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 22/31 | 208 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_05_GB_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -1 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 45; the game landed 30 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| 24% |
| +0.4 |
| Josiah Deguara | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +0.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | −1.8 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17% | −2.4 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 14% | −8.1 |
| A.J. Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Keisean Nixon | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 1 | −3.6 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 10 | 75 | 1 | 34% | +0.9 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 14% | +5.1 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 17% | −0.9 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +2.5 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7% | +0.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Divine Deablo | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Spillane | 2 | 7 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Hall | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Nichols | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roderic Teamer | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
