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2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Houston Texans

19

Atlanta FalconsWinner

21

ATL -2.5 no coverU 42 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:54, ATL +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ATL ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 1:54HOU 18 — ATL 18HOU ball · 3rd & 9ATL 72%

(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:54ATL +21% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 0:02ATL +21% win prob(:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
  3. Q4 · 0:55ATL +20% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 5-D.London to HOU 26 for 23 yards (5-J.Pitre).
  4. Q3 · 4:50HOU +20% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 81-J.Smith to HOU 13 for 10 yards (25-G.Arnold). FUMBLES (25-G.Arnold), touched at HOU 12, RECOVERED by HOU-5-J.Pitre at HOU 8. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 30 for 22 yards (9-D.Ridder).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:42HOU Field goal

    (10:42) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — ATL 0
  2. Q1 · 6:53ATL Touchdown

    (6:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — ATL 7
  3. Q2 · 14:15HOU Field goal

    (14:15) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 6 — ATL 7
  4. Q2 · 0:06HOU Field goal

    (:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 9 — ATL 7
  5. Q3 · 9:39HOU Field goal

    (9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — ATL 7
  6. Q4 · 12:17ATL Touchdown

    (12:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 7-B.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — ATL 15
  7. Q4 · 7:00ATL Field goal

    (7:00) 6-Y.Koo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: HOU 12 — ATL 18
  8. Q4 · 1:54HOU Touchdown

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — ATL 18
  9. Q4 · 0:02ATL Field goal

    (:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

    Score after this play: HOU 19 — ATL 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansFalcons
Offensive plays5873
Total yards313451 (edge)
Yards per play5.46.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.07-0.01 (edge)
Success rate38%48% (edge)
Dropback rate60%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.31 (edge)-0.33
Third downs4/137/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)69 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1628 (edge)
Sacks taken00
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

28/37, 329 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

15.2 expected points added · +7.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

20/35, 249 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

3.3 expected points added · -7.7% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

20 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

-5.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

14 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-8.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

7/11 for 87 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

6/9 for 78 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1ATLATL 11541:26Punt
2HOUATL 476282:56Field goal +3
3ATLATL 259753:50Touchdown +7
4HOUHOU 256152:16Punt
5ATLATL 225192:23Punt
6HOUHOU 267492:59Field goal +3
7ATLATL 25521:12Punt
8HOUHOU 305231:46Punt
9ATLATL 118443:15Punt
10HOUHOU 20451:22Punt
11ATLATL 3210344:50Punt
12HOUHOU 1110691:42Field goal +3
13ATL—100:03End of half
14HOUHOU 259313:19Punt
15ATLATL 173120:47Fumble
16HOUATL 30461:19Field goal +3
17ATLATL 259725:01Fumble
18HOUHOU 30440:41Punt
19ATLATL 2614776:41Touchdown +8
20HOUHOU 25581:00Punt
21ATLATL 279594:15Field goal +3
22HOUHOU 2513755:08Touchdown +7
23ATLATL 2511531:49Field goal +3

9 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 77 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud20/352491003.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Dameon Pierce20663.30-5.9
C.J. Stroud122.000.4
Tank Dell2-4-2.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dalton Schultz71065131%3.8
Tank Dell3457013%3.0
Nico Collins3439013%0.2
Robert Woods3930028%-3.5
Teagan Quitoriano112203%1.3
John Metchie222006%1.1
Dameon Pierce111603%1.8
Devin Singletary01003%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Pitre750.001
Henry To'oTo'o560.000
Blake Cashman340.000
Jimmie Ward510.001
Steven Nelson510.000
Ka'dar Hollman130.000
Grayland Arnold400.000
Jerry Hughes210.000
Khalil Davis210.000
Will Anderson120.000

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Desmond Ridder28/3732910015.2
Drake London1/1220001.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson14463.30-8.3
Tyler Allgeier17402.40-3.3
Desmond Ridder4102.51-0.5
KhaDarel Hodge100.00-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kyle Pitts71187029%1.9
Drake London6978024%2.3
Jonnu Smith6767018%-4.4
Mack Hollins222905%2.2
Keith Smith112803%1.8
MyCole Pruitt112203%2.2
Bijan Robinson221215%2.1
KhaDarel Hodge111103%1.1
Scott Miller221005%0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson11703%0.7
Tyler Allgeier01003%0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nate Landman440.000
Kaden Elliss420.000
Dee Alford420.002
Jeff Okudah310.000
Grady Jarrett130.001
Arnold Ebiketie210.000
Calais Campbell300.000
Liam McCullough110.000
A.J. Terrell110.000
David Onyemata200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Closing total
42
HOU moneyline
+120
ATL moneyline
-142

Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
HOU 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Arthur Smith