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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Atlanta Falcons 21, Texans 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:54, 3rd and 9, on Dalton Schultz — 21.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:54 · 3rd and 9
Dalton Schultz
Texans
(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 21–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:54, Texans +21.3% win probability on one snap.
21.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Drake LondonFalconsQ4 0:55(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 5-D.London to HOU 26 for 23 yards (5-J.Pitre).
20.4pts
Younghoe KooFalconsQ4 0:02(:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
21.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Falcons at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Falcons won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 13 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Texans at 6 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Texans173 of 185 plays carry both curves
(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.3 for FalconsExpected points −3.56 for FalconsThe model had Texans 3 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:54ATL +21% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:02ATL +21% win prob(:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
4th · 0:55ATL +20% win prob(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 5-D.London to HOU 26 for 23 yards (5-J.Pitre).
3rd · 4:50HOU +20% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 81-J.Smith to HOU 13 for 10 yards (25-G.Arnold). FUMBLES (25-G.Arnold), touched at HOU 12, RECOVERED by HOU-5-J.Pitre at HOU 8. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 30 for 22 yards (9-D.Ridder).
3rd · 11:01HOU +16% win prob(11:01) 7-B.Robinson left end to ATL 29 for 1 yard (94-K.Davis). FUMBLES (94-K.Davis), RECOVERED by HOU-92-D.Horton at ATL 30.
2nd · 0:41ATL +10% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 3-N.Dell to ATL 29 for 29 yards (1-J.Okudah). HOU-3-N.Dell was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 37-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:42Ka'imi Fairbairn·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+33–0
4th0:02Younghoe Koo·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+319–21
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryFalcons
Texans1–7Falcons
313Total yards451
5.4Yards per play6.2
38%Success rate48%
31%Third-down rate54%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays9
16First downs28
0Sacks taken0
0Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Texans: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.01Falcons: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Texans: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.26Falcons: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Texans: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.33Falcons: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 58 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Falcons’s 73 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's play-action rate turned over: 35.5% in week 4 against 17.1% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Falcons5.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteHOU's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.8 points below their season mean of 31.8% and 1.2 times their own 27.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo+28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:02) 6-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on HOU-25-G.Arnold, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
Q4 0:02 · Falcons · 4th & 3 at HOU 19 · gained nothing · +0.31 EP · +27.8% win probability
171 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 79 yards from the HOU 11 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
762
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.0966%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.3279%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.0844%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.1638%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.3762%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.4236%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 15
Texans3Falcons0
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Falcons 19
Texans3Falcons6
Texans3Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Texans 7
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 47
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Falcons 25
2nd quarter57 plays
Texans6Falcons7
Field goal3 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 25
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 32
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Falcons 47
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Texans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 25
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 32 to the Texans 32
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Texans9Falcons7
Field goal15 plays, from the Texans 11 to the Falcons 10
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Falcons 44
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 28
Texans12Falcons7
Field goal4 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 24
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Texans 23
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 34
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Texans 44
4th quarter51 plays
Texans12Falcons13
Texans12Falcons15
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 5
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 33
Texans12Falcons18
Field goal9 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Texans 13
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Texans18Falcons18
Texans19Falcons18
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Falcons 18
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Texans19Falcons21
Field goal16 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Texans 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -2.5
Closing total
42
Texans moneyline
+120
Falcons moneyline
-142
Falcons closed -2.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Texans 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Arthur Smith
2nd · 2:00HOU +9% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to HOU 29 for 5 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o). PENALTY on ATL-67-D.Dalman, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 29.
2nd · 3:30ATL +9% win prob(3:30) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 8-K.Pitts to HOU 37 for 18 yards (5-J.Pitre).
