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2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

25

Buffalo Bills

20

BUF -5.5 upsetU 48.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 25–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:08, BUF +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑JAX ↓
Q4 · 4:08JAX 18 — BUF 13BUF ball · 2nd & 19JAX 91%

(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 4:08BUF +14% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
  2. Q4 · 14:58JAX +12% win prob(14:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 30 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver) [91-E.Oliver], touched at BUF 29, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Dodson at BUF 32. Fumble Forced by BUF-59-K.Jonathan.
  3. Q2 · 0:17JAX +11% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 22 for -10 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at BUF 23.
  4. Q4 · 3:15BUF +10% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BUF 37 for 32 yards (23-M.Hyde) [25-T.Dodson].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:04JAX Touchdown

    (7:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 8 — BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 1:17JAX Field goal

    (1:17) 10-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 11 — BUF 0
  3. Q2 · 1:19BUF Touchdown

    (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 11 — BUF 7
  4. Q4 · 7:50JAX Touchdown

    (7:50) 1-T.Etienne right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 18 — BUF 7
  5. Q4 · 4:08BUF Touchdown

    (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

    Score after this play: JAX 18 — BUF 13
  6. Q4 · 3:04JAX Touchdown

    (3:04) 1-T.Etienne left guard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 25 — BUF 13
  7. Q4 · 2:18BUF Touchdown

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 25 — BUF 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsBills
Offensive plays8254
Total yards477 (edge)389
Yards per play5.87.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.130.19 (edge)
Success rate46%52% (edge)
Dropback rate57%80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.190.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.25
Third downs10/18 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)11 (edge)4
First downs gained on snaps27 (edge)18
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers22

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

27/40, 359 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

14.0 expected points added · +13.4% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

25/37, 315 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.4 expected points added · +2.1% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

26 att, 136 yds, 2 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

7 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Calvin RidleyWR

7/8 for 122 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 11.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

8/11 for 121 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 156252:26Punt
2BUFBUF 20481:25Punt
3JAXJAX 2710704:10Touchdown +8
4BUFBUF 25591:56Punt
5JAXJAX 309443:50Field goal +3
6BUFBUF 258182:05Punt
7JAXJAX 229303:53Punt
8BUFBUF 75192:24Punt
9JAXJAX 214132:07Punt
10BUFBUF 1412864:30Touchdown +7
11JAXJAX 258521:04Fumble
12BUFBUF 23100:10End of half
13BUFBUF 256141:26Punt
14JAXJAX 68304:04Punt
15BUFBUF 105481:34Punt
16JAXJAX 817638:07Fumble
17BUFBUF 324191:43Interception
18JAXJAX 711715:22Touchdown +7
19BUFBUF 2511813:41Touchdown +6
20JAXJAX 257751:07Touchdown +7
21BUFBUF 256750:45Touchdown +7
22JAXBUF 49541:49Punt
23BUFBUF 61120:09Fumble
24JAXBUF 18100:13End of game

7 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 86 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence25/373151058.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne261365.225.2
Trevor Lawrence7314.40-2.3
Calvin Ridley2147.000.4
Tank Bigsby382.70-2.1
Christian Kirk166.00-0.6
Jamal Agnew111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Ridley78122022%11.2
Christian Kirk6878022%4.9
Travis Etienne4548014%2.4
Evan Engram4828022%0.0
Zay Jones3523114%1.7
Luke Farrell111603%1.2
Tim Jones01003%-0.7
Brenton Strange01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foyesade Oluokun420.000
Darious Williams600.011
Tyson Campbell320.001
Rayshawn Jenkins500.001
Andre Cisco310.000
Chad Muma310.000
Tre Herndon200.000
Josh Hines-Allen100.000
Tyler Lacy100.000
Adam Gotsis100.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen27/4035921014.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Allen4143.512.3
Damien Harris3134.300.6
Latavius Murray263.00-0.4
James Cook5-4-0.80-3.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Stefon Diggs811121131%5.5
Gabe Davis68100122%8.9
Deonte Harty226206%4.3
James Cook3425011%-0.6
Dalton Kincaid221906%0.4
Dawson Knox3617017%-4.8
Khalil Shakir111103%0.3
Trent Sherfield11303%1.1
Latavius Murray11103%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Terrel Bernard680.000
Kaiir Elam730.000
Dane Jackson620.001
Ed Oliver341.000
Dorian Williams230.001
Micah Hyde410.000
A.J. Epenesa222.003
Tyrel Dodson210.001
Jordan Poyer120.000
Matt Milano300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -5.5
Closing total
48.5
JAX moneyline
+205
BUF moneyline
-250

Bills closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 45 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
JAX 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Sean McDermott