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2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville25
BY 5final margin
BillsBuffalo20
Jacksonville Jaguars 25 at Buffalo Bills 20. Final.
Bills -5.5 upsetU 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
Jacksonville Jaguars 25, Bills 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 4:08, 2nd and 19, on Gabe Davis — 14.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 4:08 · 2nd and 19
Gabe Davis
Bills
(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Bills closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 25–20. Biggest swing: Q4 4:08, Bills +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trevor LawrenceBillsQ2 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 22 for -10 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at BUF 23.
11.3pts
Trevor LawrenceBillsQ4 14:58(14:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 30 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver) [91-E.Oliver], touched at BUF 29, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Dodson at BUF 32. Fumble Forced by BUF-59-K.Jonathan.
11.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Bills at 4 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 10 of 18 on third down, against Bills at 5 of 12 on third down.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Jaguars178 of 190 plays carry both curves
(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Swing +14.2 for BillsExpected points +3.83 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:08BUF +14% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 14:58JAX +12% win prob(14:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 30 for -6 yards (91-E.Oliver). FUMBLES (91-E.Oliver) [91-E.Oliver], touched at BUF 29, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Dodson at BUF 32. Fumble Forced by BUF-59-K.Jonathan.
2nd · 0:17JAX +11% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at BUF 22 for -10 yards (57-A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (57-A.Epenesa) [57-A.Epenesa], RECOVERED by BUF-57-A.Epenesa at BUF 23.
4th · 3:15BUF +10% win prob(3:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley pushed ob at BUF 37 for 32 yards (23-M.Hyde) [25-T.Dodson].
2nd · 1:19BUF +10% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:04BUF +8% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zay Jones's 6-yard touchdown catch with 7:04 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:04Zay Jones·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor Lawrence · two-point goodLead never changed again+88–0
1st1:17Brandon McManus·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+311–0
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Bills, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Jaguars: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.19Bills: +0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Jaguars: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.30Bills: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Jaguars: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.25Bills: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 82 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bills’s 54 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Bills 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, is past their previous high of 68.5% in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Bills17.0%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
NoteJAX's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 14.7 points above their season mean of 27.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%88 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%88 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%88 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%88 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Full-time97%85 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyG · Full-time88%77 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time85%75 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Full-time85%75 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time83%73 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Full-time83%73 snaps
7Zay JonesWR · Rotational43%38 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational38%33 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational27%24 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Rotational26%23 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Situational15%13 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Situational13%11 snaps
72Walker LittleT · Situational13%11 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational3%3 snaps
25D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational1%1 snap
22Jamycal HastyRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 4
Christian BraswellCBCole Van LanenGDevin LloydILBElijah CooksWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
C.J. BeathardQB
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%60 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%60 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%60 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%60 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Full-time98%59 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time90%54 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time87%52 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation62%37 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation53%32 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational32%19 snaps
11Deonte HartyWR · Rotational25%15 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational18%11 snaps
22Damien HarrisRB · Situational18%11 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Situational18%11 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational12%7 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Situational10%6 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Situational5%3 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Christian BenfordCBPoona FordDEShaq LawsonDEGregory RousseauDEGermain IfediGDamar HamlinSSAlec AndersonT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Allen pass+12% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on JAX-32-Ty.Campbell, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 4:08 · Bills · 2nd & goal at JAX 19 · gained 19 · +3.83 EP · +12.0% win probability
176 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 185. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 93 yards from the JAX 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
45%
Yards
864
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1865%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0668%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2235%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0193%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.2110%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6880%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 40
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 28
Jaguars6Bills0
Jaguars8Bills0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Bills 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 34
Jaguars11Bills0
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Bills 25
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 36
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Bills 43
Punt12 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Jaguars 46
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Bills 31
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Jaguars 29
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Jaguars11Bills6
Jaguars11Bills7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Jaguars 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bills 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Bills 38
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Jaguars 42
The period ended16 plays, from the Jaguars 8 to the Bills 23
4th quarter61 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Jaguars 49
Jaguars17Bills7
Jaguars18Bills7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Bills 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Jaguars18Bills13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jaguars 9
Jaguars24Bills13
Jaguars25Bills13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Bills 35
Jaguars25Bills19
Jaguars25Bills20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Jaguars 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 49 to the Bills 45
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
