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2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

27

Minnesota Vikings

20

KC -3.5 ✓U 52.5 ✓Dome

Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:43, MIN +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑KC ↓
Q2 · 1:43KC 10 — MIN 12MIN ball · 2nd & 5KC 63%

(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:43MIN +14% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 13:45MIN +12% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to 50 for 33 yards (24-C.Bynum) [22-H.Smith]. MIN-21-A.Evans was injured during the play.
  3. Q3 · 10:13MIN +10% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 5:06MIN +10% win prob(5:06) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 44-J.Metellus. 32-T.Chandler right end pushed ob at KC 33 for 15 yards (23-D.Tranquill).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:06KC Touchdown

    (10:06) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-44-J.Metellus, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 7 — MIN 0
  2. Q1 · 4:06MIN Field goal

    (4:06) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: KC 7 — MIN 3
  3. Q2 · 12:49KC Field goal

    (12:49) 7-H.Butker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 10 — MIN 3
  4. Q2 · 8:05MIN Field goal

    (8:05) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: KC 10 — MIN 6
  5. Q2 · 1:43MIN Touchdown

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 10 — MIN 13
  6. Q2 · 0:04KC Field goal

    (:04) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: KC 13 — MIN 13
  7. Q3 · 10:13KC Touchdown

    (10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 20 — MIN 13
  8. Q3 · 2:48KC Touchdown

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 27 — MIN 13
  9. Q4 · 12:15MIN Touchdown

    (12:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Mattison for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: KC 27 — MIN 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChiefsVikings
Offensive plays6367
Total yards333 (edge)329
Yards per play5.3 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play0.17 (edge)0.00
Success rate44% (edge)43%
Dropback rate67%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.35 (edge)-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.190.17 (edge)
Third downs9/15 (edge)6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps2020
Sacks taken2 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

29/47, 284 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.6 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

31/41, 281 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.8 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

16 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

8 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

10/11 for 67 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

6/9 for 64 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 6.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 252150:10Fumble
2KCMIN 4510454:50Touchdown +7
3MINMIN 2515485:58Field goal +3
4KCKC 2513556:16Field goal +3
5MINMIN 2510384:44Field goal +3
6KCKC 25540:59Punt
7MINMIN 4413565:24Touchdown +7
8KCKC 2511581:39Field goal +3
9KCKC 2513754:50Touchdown +7
10MINMIN 25530:58Punt
11KCKC 2612586:27Touchdown +7
12MINMIN 2516755:34Touchdown +7
13KCKC 287193:16Punt
14MINMIN 2010664:06Turnover on downs
15KCKC 256193:42Punt
16MINMIN 197281:07End of game

9 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes31/4128120214.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco16553.41-2.4
Jerick McKinnon177.000.5
Clyde Edwards-Helaire341.30-1.5
Kadarius Toney111.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce101167128%5.1
Justin Watson235608%4.1
Rashee Rice4533113%3.9
Justyn Ross2428010%1.7
Kadarius Toney5626015%1.1
Noah Gray222105%0.6
Jerick McKinnon231808%1.5
Marquez Valdes-Scantling121205%-0.5
Skyy Moore221105%-0.0
Isiah Pacheco11903%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill630.000
L'Jarius Sneed610.002
Willie Gay420.000
Justin Reid510.001
Trent McDuffie600.003
Jaylen Watson400.000
Joshua Williams220.000
Michael Danna211.000
Bryan Cook110.000
Chris Jones111.001

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins29/472842032.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison8263.30-1.6
Cam Akers5153.00-0.6
Ty Chandler11515.003.2
Brandon Powell199.000.6
Kirk Cousins351.701.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jordan Addison6964120%6.9
T.J. Hockenson5851017%-1.0
K.J. Osborn5949020%-2.3
Brandon Powell4643013%1.8
Justin Jefferson3628013%0.1
Alexander Mattison232017%1.9
Josh Oliver121504%-5.3
Johnny Mundt111102%0.7
Cam Akers22304%-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Hicks440.001
Harrison Smith440.000
Harrison Phillips150.000
Camryn Bynum510.001
Josh Metellus400.000
Mekhi Blackmon400.001
Ivan Pace220.000
Byron Murphy210.001
D.J. Wonnum120.000
Danielle Hunter111.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -3.5
Closing total
52.5
KC moneyline
-180
MIN moneyline
+150

Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
KC 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Kevin O'Connell