For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
ChiefsKansas City27
BY 7final margin
VikingsMinnesota20
Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Minnesota Vikings 20. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 ✓U 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Vikings 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:43, 2nd and 5, on Jordan Addison — 14.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:43 · 2nd and 5
Jordan Addison
Vikings
(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:43, Vikings +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin WatsonChiefsQ3 13:45(13:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to 50 for 33 yards (24-C.Bynum) [22-H.Smith]. MIN-21-A.Evans was injured during the play.
12.1pts
Rashee RiceChiefsQ3 10:13(10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Vikings at 6 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Chiefs167 of 176 plays carry both curves
(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.2 for VikingsExpected points +1.94 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 17 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:43MIN +14% win prob(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:45MIN +12% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 84-Ju.Watson to 50 for 33 yards (24-C.Bynum) [22-H.Smith]. MIN-21-A.Evans was injured during the play.
3rd · 10:13MIN +10% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:06MIN +10% win prob(5:06) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 44-J.Metellus. 32-T.Chandler right end pushed ob at KC 33 for 15 yards (23-D.Tranquill).
4th · 4:54KC +8% win prob(4:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 3-J.Addison (22-T.McDuffie) [22-T.McDuffie].
4th · 6:21MIN +8% win prob(6:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 17-K.Osborn to KC 22 for 27 yards (38-L.Sneed).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashee Rice's 8-yard touchdown catch with 10:13 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.00Vikings: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Chiefs: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.06Vikings: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Chiefs: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.17Vikings: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 63 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Vikings 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.4% in week 4.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.3% in week 4 against 70.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.1% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Vikings21.4%
leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteKC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 11.3 points below their season mean of 16.1% and 1.5 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%66 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%66 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%66 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%66 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation65%43 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:13 · Chiefs · 3rd & goal at MIN 8 · gained 8 · +2.96 EP · +13.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
662
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.1379%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3974%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0960%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2164%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.3857%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Chiefs6Vikings0
Chiefs7Vikings0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 1
Chiefs7Vikings3
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chiefs 22
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Vikings 44
2nd quarter53 plays
Chiefs10Vikings3
Field goal5 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 20
Chiefs10Vikings6
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chiefs 11
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 29
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Offense on the fieldOne corner, one fullback, one free safety, one inside linebacker, one long snapper, one outside linebacker, one punter, one back, one strong safety and two tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and three backs
Chiefs10Vikings12
Chiefs10Vikings13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Chiefs 5
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Chiefs13Vikings13
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Vikings 22
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Chiefs19Vikings13
Chiefs20Vikings13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Vikings 8
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
Chiefs26Vikings13
Chiefs27Vikings13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Vikings 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Chiefs 35
4th quarter45 plays
Chiefs27Vikings19
Chiefs27Vikings20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 9
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 47
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Chiefs 19
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 44
The period ended9 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Chiefs 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -3.5
Closing total
52.5
Chiefs moneyline
-180
Vikings moneyline
+150
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Kevin O'Connell
2nd · 2:00
MIN +8% win prob
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison to KC 6 for 15 yards (2-J.Williams).
2nd · 0:32MIN +7% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-Ju.Watson to MIN 36 for 23 yards [91-P.Jones]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
