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live · 12s tick · as of 1:16 PM ET · 7 h ago · 1 live · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 5
It turned at Q2 1:43, 2nd and 5, on Jordan Addison — 14.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Kansas City Chiefs 27–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:43, Vikings +14.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:43 · 2nd and 5
Jordan Addison
Vikings
(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Vikings at 6 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Vikings at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(1:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashee Rice's 8-yard touchdown catch with 10:13 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Harrison Butker38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+310–3Harrison Butker40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+313–13Rashee Rice8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+720–139 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryVikings
Chiefs ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 63 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Vikings’s 67 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Vikings 4.
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's play-action rate, 4.8%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
MIN's sack or hit rate, 21.4%, is past their previous high of 15.4% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
MIN's play-action rate, 18.4%, is past their previous low of 23.9% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.3% in week 4 against 70.8% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
KC's early-down pass rate turned over: 48.1% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · +0.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -11 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs6.8 ptsright on their number · −0.0 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 63 snaps
Vikings1.4 ptsright on their number · −0.7 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 89%
Tendencies room →Chiefs66.7%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 48 early downs
Vikings70.8%inside their normal wobble · +11.0 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 50%
Tendencies room →Chiefs4.8%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.53× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Vikings18.4%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.2 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.47× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.4%.
Vikings75.0%leaned — went for it · +38.1 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 97%
Tendencies room →Chiefs40.8%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Vikings40.5%inside their normal wobble · −12.0 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chiefs24.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Vikings21.4%leaned — got home · +8.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
KC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 4.8%, 11.3 points below their season mean of 16.1% and 1.5 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
29/47, 284 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2.6 expected points added · -3.4% completion over expected
Passing · KC
31/41, 281 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
14.8 expected points added · +10.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Alexander Mattison banked 3.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis KelceTE · Alpha Receiver | 22.7 | +3.0 | 59% | 53% | 28% | 21% | 10/11, 67 yd, 1 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 19.9 | −2.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/47, 284 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 5 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 19.2 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/41, 281 yd, 2 TD |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Featured Receiver | 18.4 | +0.4 | 75% | 82% | 20% | 29% | 6/9, 64 yd, 1 TD |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.4 | −0.8 | 59% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 16 car, 55 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +2.9 | 30% | 23% | 13% | 10% | 4/5, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 12.6 | +3.6 | 51% | 52% | 7% | 0% | 8 car, 26 yd · 2/3, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.1 | −2.8 | 79% | 76% | 17% | 21% | 5/8, 51 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Featured Receiver | 9.9 | −5.1 | 89% | 92% | 20% | 15% | 5/9, 49 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | −2.8 | 31% | 34% | 13% | 19% | 1 car, 9 yd · 4/6, 43 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | −1.7 | 38% | 40% | 15% | 1% | 1 car, 1 yd · 5/6, 26 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +3.1 | 44% | 53% | 8% | 35% | 2/3, 56 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −4.3 | 71% | 64% | 13% | 13% | 3/6, 28 yd |
| Justyn RossWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −3.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 4.5 | −0.9 | 27% | 40% | 8% | 0% | 1 car, 7 yd · 2/3, 18 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | +1.2 | 65% | 70% | 5% | 6% | 2/2, 21 yd |
| Cam AkersRB | 3.8 | −1.2 | 29% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 5 car, 15 yd · 2/2, 3 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +0.1 | 56% | 53% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 11 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.6 | 65% | 67% | 5% | 11% | 1/2, 12 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.7 | 14% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 1.5 | +1.0 | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −3.4 | 35% | 30% | 4% | 4% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 0.4 | −1.3 | 14% | 14% | 0% | — | 3 car, 4 yd |
| Montrell WashingtonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 4-R.Rice for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 10:13 · Chiefs · 3rd & goal at MIN 8 · gained 8 · +2.96 EP · +13.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 75 yards from the KC 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs6
Vikings0Chiefs7Vikings0Chiefs7Vikings3Chiefs10Vikings3Chiefs10Vikings6How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Chiefs10Vikings12Chiefs10Vikings13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the receiver created it himself.
Chiefs13Vikings13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs19Vikings13Chiefs20Vikings13Chiefs26Vikings13Chiefs27Vikings13Chiefs27Vikings19Chiefs27Vikings20How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/41 | 281 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +14.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 1 | −2.4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 11 | 67 | 1 | 28% | +5.1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Willie Gay |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/47 | 284 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_05_KC_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 47 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 1.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +4.1 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 13% | +3.9 |
| Justyn Ross | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +1.7 |
| Kadarius Toney | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 8% | +1.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaylen Watson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joshua Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +3.2 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 9 | 64 | 1 | 20% | +6.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 17% | −1.0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 9 | 49 | 0 | 20% | −2.3 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 13% | +1.8 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 13% | +0.1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 4% | −5.3 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2% | +0.7 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivan Pace | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
