2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

New England Patriots

NE -2.5 upsetU 38.5 ✓Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New Orleans Saints 34–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, NO +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 7:11NO 6 — NE 0NE ball · 3rd & 6NE 55%

(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 7:11NO +17% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 5:47NE +9% win prob(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas to NE 48 for 24 yards (23-M.Lattimore). PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 48. New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Q1 · 3:45NO +9% win prob(3:45) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Q1 · 2:03NE +7% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to NE 37 for 26 yards (2-J.Mills).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:11NO Touchdown
(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — NE 0
Q2 · 14:27NO Touchdown
(14:27) NO 4-Carr now at QB. 73-M.Garcia reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — NE 0
Q2 · 10:53NO Touchdown
(10:53) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 21 — NE 0
Q3 · 11:40NO Field goal
(11:40) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 24 — NE 0
Q4 · 13:10NO Touchdown
(13:10) NO 4-Carr now at QB. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 31 — NE 0
Q4 · 5:47NO Field goal
(5:47) 19-B.Grupe 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 34 — NE 0

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Patriots
Offensive plays	66	51
Total yards	309 (edge)	156
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	3.1
Expected points added / play	0.02 (edge)	-0.78
Success rate	38% (edge)	20%
Dropback rate	45%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.15 (edge)	-0.80
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.76
Third downs	5/15 (edge)	1/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	5
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.78.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

18/26, 183 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.4 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

12/22, 110 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-18.7 expected points added · -12.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

22 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Kendre MillerRB

12 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-3.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

4/7 for 65 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Kendre MillerRB

4/4 for 53 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 22	10	24	4:39	Punt
2	NE	NE 6	4	8	0:56	Punt
3	NO	NE 40	4	6	1:36	Punt
4	NE	NE 20	3	4	0:47	Defensive touchdown
5	NE	NE 21	8	34	3:23	Missed field goal
6	NO	NO 38	9	67	4:16	Touchdown +7
7	NE	NE 17	5	4	1:01	Punt
8	NO	NO 41	6	59	2:35	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 25	8	14	4:03	Punt
10	NO	NO 16	10	48	5:41	Punt
11	NE	NE 18	6	12	0:58	Punt
12	NO	NO 14	1	0	0:05	End of half
13	NE	NE 25	4	9	1:00	Fumble
14	NO	NE 29	4	-1	2:26	Field goal +3
15	NE	NE 25	6	35	1:46	Punt
16	NO	NO 13	4	8	1:56	Punt
17	NE	NE 35	4	-2	1:13	Punt
18	NO	NO 5	12	42	5:26	Punt
19	NE	NE 10	1	0	0:06	Interception
20	NO	NE 31	7	31	3:04	Touchdown +7
21	NE	NE 25	5	6	1:27	Punt
22	NO	NO 18	4	12	2:37	Punt
23	NE	NE 24	4	14	1:44	Turnover on downs
24	NO	NE 33	4	3	1:32	Field goal +3
25	NE	NE 25	5	13	1:36	Punt
26	NO	NO 29	5	10	1:51	Punt
27	NE	NE 12	4	5	0:26	Turnover on downs
28	NO	NE 17	3	0	1:50	End of game

5 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 67 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	18/26	183	2	0	2	3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	22	80	3.6	1	0.8
Kendre Miller	12	37	3.1	0	-3.5
Taysom Hill	3	19	6.3	0	0.7
Derek Carr	2	4	2.0	0	0.2
Jameis Winston	3	-4	-1.3	0	-4.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	4	7	65	0	28%	5.6
Kendre Miller	4	4	53	0	16%	3.1
Rashid Shaheed	2	2	28	0	8%	1.7
Alvin Kamara	3	3	17	0	12%	0.6
Chris Olave	2	5	12	1	20%	-1.2
Foster Moreau	1	1	6	1	4%	2.0
Taysom Hill	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.7
Keith Kirkwood	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.4
Jimmy Graham	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alontae Taylor	4	2	0.0	0	0
Demario Davis	3	3	0.0	0	1
Carl Granderson	3	1	1.0	0	0
Marshon Lattimore	3	1	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Abram	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Roach	0	2	0.0	0	1
Pete Werner	1	1	0.0	1	1
Paulson Adebo	2	0	0.0	0	2
D'Marco Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	0	2	0.5	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	12/22	110	0	2	2	-18.7
Bailey Zappe	3/9	22	0	0	0	-7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	8	24	3.0	-4.8
Ezekiel Elliott	8	21	2.6	-2.6
Mac Jones	1	0	0.0	-5.8
Ty Montgomery	1	0	0.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	2	5	43	16%	-0.5
Demario Douglas	1	2	24	6%	3.2
DeVante Parker	2	4	20	13%	-2.1
Ezekiel Elliott	4	4	17	13%	-1.0
Mike Gesicki	2	4	17	13%	-1.8
JuJu Smith-Schuster	3	4	6	13%	-3.4
Ty Montgomery	1	4	5	13%	-7.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	0	2	0	6%	-7.7
Hunter Henry	0	2	0	6%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Ja'Whaun Bentley	4	6	1.0
Deatrich Wise	4	3	0.0
Kyle Dugger	1	5	0.0
Myles Bryant	4	1	1.0
Jahlani Tavai	2	2	0.0
Anfernee Jennings	2	2	0.0
Davon Godchaux	1	3	0.0
Mack Wilson	2	1	0.0
Christian Barmore	2	1	0.0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -2.5
Closing total: 38.5
NO moneyline: +114
NE moneyline: -135

Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38.5; the game landed 34 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: NO 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Bill Belichick