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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
New Orleans Saints 34 at New England Patriots 0. Final.
Patriots -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
New Orleans Saints 34, Patriots 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 7:11, 3rd and 6, on Tyrann Mathieu — 16.6 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 7:11 · 3rd and 6
Tyrann Mathieu
Saints
(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 38.5 ✓
Patriots closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 34–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 7:11, Saints +16.6% win probability on one snap.
16.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Demario DouglasPatriotsQ1 5:47(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas to NE 48 for 24 yards (23-M.Lattimore). PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 48. New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
9.1pts
Chad RylandSaintsQ1 3:45(3:45) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
8.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.78 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.80 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Saints won this one — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.76 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Patriots at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Saints166 of 173 plays carry both curves
(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.6 for PatriotsExpected points −6.90 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 3 points higher than the market did.play 25
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 7:11NO +17% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:47NE +9% win prob(5:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 81-D.Douglas to NE 48 for 24 yards (23-M.Lattimore). PENALTY on NO-23-M.Lattimore, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NE 48. New Orleans challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
1st · 3:45NO +9% win prob(3:45) 37-C.Ryland 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
1st · 2:03NE +7% win prob(2:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to NE 37 for 26 yards (2-J.Mills).
1st · 10:28NE +7% win prob(10:28) 39-L.Hedley punts 53 yards to NE 6, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 5-J.Peppers.
1st · 11:23NO +6% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at NO 46 for -9 yards (8-J.Bentley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyrann Mathieu's 27-yard touchdown with 7:11 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th5:47Blake Grupe·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+334–0
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryPatriots
Saints8–0Patriots
309Total yards156
4.7Yards per play3.1
38%Success rate20%
33%Third-down rate7%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays2
17First downs5
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers3
The read
Saints ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.80 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Saints: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.78Patriots: −0.78 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Saints: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.80Patriots: −0.80 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Saints: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.76Patriots: −0.76 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 66 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Patriots’s 51 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Patriots 0.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.78.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate, 39.2%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 4.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots6.7%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.2%, 14.1 points below their season mean of 53.3% and 1.2 times their own 11.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 38-R.Stevenson INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu [96-C.Granderson] at NE 27. 32-T.Mathieu for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 7:11 · Patriots · 3rd & 6 at NE 24 · gained nothing · -6.90 EP · −19.6% win probability
164 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 62 yards from the NO 38 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.28
Success rate
29%
Yards
460
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.7871%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.1345%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.8546%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1217%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR12+0.1267%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1250%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Patriots 45
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 14
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 34
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints6Patriots0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 24
Saints7Patriots0
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Saints 30
The period ended9 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Patriots 8
2nd quarter46 plays
Saints13Patriots0
Saints14Patriots0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 2
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 17 to the Patriots 21
Saints20Patriots0
Saints21Patriots0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 41 to the Patriots 5
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 39
Punt11 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Patriots 41
The period ended9 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Saints 41
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Saints24Patriots0
Field goal5 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 24
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Saints 40
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 21
Punt4 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Saints 5 to the Saints 47
Intercepted1 play
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 31 to the Patriots 26
4th quarter45 plays
Saints30Patriots0
Saints31Patriots0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Patriots 6
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 31
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 21
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 33
Saints34Patriots0
Field goal5 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Patriots 30
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Saints 37
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Patriots 17
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
