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live · 12s tick · as of 1:15 PM ET · 7 h ago · 1 live · 15 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 5
It turned at Q2 1:55, 3rd and 4, on Jason Pinnock — 9.6 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 31–16. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, Giants +9.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:55 · 3rd and 4
Jason Pinnock
Giants
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.46 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaylen Waddle's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:16 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Jaylen Waddle2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–79 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 52 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Dolphins 5.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's sack or hit rate, 27.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
MIA's play-action rate, 41.9%, is past their previous high of 35.7% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
NYG's blitz rate sent, 9.7%, is past their previous low of 34.4% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.6 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent, 18.6%, is past their previous low of 30.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-9.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 68 snaps
Dolphins6.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.3 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 90%
Tendencies room →Giants57.1%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 58.2%, and they swing ±12.3 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 49 early downs
Dolphins53.3%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 47%
Tendencies room →Giants23.3%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Dolphins41.9%off script — faked the run · +17.0 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+2.05× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -53% to 146%
Fourth Down room →Giants25.0%inside their normal wobble · −21.3 vs their 46.3%, and they swing ±39.0 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.2%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 91%
Tendencies room →Giants9.7%leaned — sat back · −33.5 vs their 43.2%, and they swing ±18.6 week to week (−1.80× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Dolphins18.6%leaned — sat back · −9.7 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Giants6.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Dolphins27.9%leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
MIA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 24.9% and 2.1 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
22/30, 308 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-1.8 expected points added · +9.3% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
14/20, 119 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-4.6 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyreek Hill banked 17.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 32.1 | +17.0 | 46% | 56% | 32% | 52% | 8/9, 181 yd, 1 TD |
| Devon AchaneRB · Committee Back | 21.5 | +11.8 | 48% | 47% | 4% | 0% | 11 car, 151 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 16.9 | −0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/30, 308 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Alpha Receiver | 16.6 | −0.8 | 92% | 91% | 37% | 57% | 8/11, 86 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | +3.6 | 59% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 10 car, 65 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.5 | −9.3 | 81% | 84% | 36% | 25% | 5/10, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.9 | 54% | 41% | 14% | 27% | 4/4, 52 yd |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 7.2 | −0.3 | 68% | — | 0% | — | 14/20, 119 yd · 4 car, 24 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.9 | −1.2 | 67% | 49% | 20% | 7% | 1 car, 1 yd · 5/6, 18 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.5 | −0.3 | 68% | 74% | 13% | 22% | 2/4, 35 yd |
| Tyrod TaylorQB | 4.8 | −1.4 | 32% | — | 0% | — | 9/12, 86 yd · 3 car, 14 yd |
| Parris CampbellWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +1.5 | 22% | 26% | 7% | 5% | 2/2, 23 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +1.1 | 39% | 28% | 7% | 4% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Eric GrayRB · Committee Back | 3.6 | −3.3 | 42% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 25 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Matt BreidaRB | 3.4 | −3.0 | 58% | 56% | 3% | 1% | 9 car, 21 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +0.3 | 37% | 56% | 7% | 4% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −0.3 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 5% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.4 | 38% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:55 · Dolphins · 3rd & goal at NYG 4 · gained nothing · -11.46 EP · −18.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 94 yards from the MIA 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Dolphins6Giants0Dolphins7How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Giants0Dolphins13Giants0Dolphins14Giants3Dolphins14How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Giants9Dolphins14Giants10Dolphins14Giants10Dolphins17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Giants10Dolphins23Giants10Dolphins24Giants13Dolphins24Giants13Dolphins30Giants13Dolphins31Giants16Dolphins31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 14/20 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 6 | −4.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 9/12 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Gray | 12 | 25 | 2.1 | 0 | −7.3 |
| Daniel Jones | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 8 | 11 | 86 | 0 | 37% | +6.1 |
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Okereke | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Isaiah Simmons | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/30 | 308 | 2 | 2 | 1 | −1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_05_NYG_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 47 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
| Matt Breida | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| +2.8 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 7% | +1.8 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 7% | +1.3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 5 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 20% | −3.3 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | +1.2 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Eric Gray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Jason Pinnock | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Dane Belton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kayvon Thibodeaux | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tre Hawkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deonte Banks | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Carter Coughlin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Achane | 11 | 151 | 13.7 | 1 | +4.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 9 | 181 | 1 | 32% | +14.3 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 4 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 14% | +2.8 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 5 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 36% | −17.7 |
| Devon Achane | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 7% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 4 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long Jr. | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 7 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShon Elliott | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 0 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavien Howard | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
