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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York16
BY 15final margin
DolphinsMiami31
New York Giants 16 at Miami Dolphins 31. Final.
Dolphins -12.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
Miami Dolphins 31, Giants 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:55, 3rd and 4, on Jason Pinnock — 9.6 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:55 · 3rd and 4
Jason Pinnock
Giants
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 15.
Miami Dolphins 31–16. Biggest swing: Q2 1:55, Giants +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Devon AchaneGiantsQ2 13:00(13:00) 28-D.Achane left tackle to NYG 35 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney). FUMBLES (29-X.McKinney), RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at NYG 38.
5.7pts
Tyreek HillDolphinsQ3 14:15(14:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.46 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 3 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Giants159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.6 for DolphinsExpected points −11.46 for DolphinsThe model had Giants 6 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:55NYG +10% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:00NYG +6% win prob(13:00) 28-D.Achane left tackle to NYG 35 for 8 yards (29-X.McKinney). FUMBLES (29-X.McKinney), RECOVERED by NYG-5-K.Thibodeaux at NYG 38.
3rd · 14:15MIA +5% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 11:35MIA +4% win prob(11:35) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to MIA 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.
2nd · 10:12MIA +3% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:31MIA +3% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 11-C.Wilson to NYG 16 for 23 yards (29-X.McKinney).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaylen Waddle's 2-yard touchdown catch with 7:16 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:16Jaylen Waddle·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+70–7
4th8:56Graham Gano·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+316–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryDolphins
Giants1–8Dolphins
268Total yards525
3.9Yards per play10.1
38%Success rate60%
29%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays10
13First downs22
7Sacks taken1
0Turnovers3
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Giants: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.10Dolphins: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Giants: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.46Giants: −0.46 expected points added per play
+0.34Dolphins: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 52 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Dolphins 5.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 27.9%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 18.6%, is past their previous low of 30.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Dolphins27.9%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteMIA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 41.9%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 24.9% and 2.1 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive
73Evan NealT · Every snap100%72 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%72 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Full-time96%69 snaps
12Darren WallerTE · Full-time92%66 snaps
75Joshua EzeuduG · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
8Daniel JonesQB · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Heavy rotation68%49 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation67%48 snaps
62Jalen MayfieldG · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
31Matt BreidaRB · Heavy rotation58%42 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Rotational46%33 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Rotational42%30 snaps
18Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational39%28 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Rotational38%27 snaps
60Marcus McKethanT · Rotational38%27 snaps
74Matt PeartT · Rotational33%24 snaps
2Tyrod TaylorQB · Rotational32%23 snaps
3Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational28%20 snaps
0Parris CampbellWR · Situational22%16 snaps
71Jaylon ThomasT · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
John Michael SchmitzCGervarrius OwensFSShane LemieuxGMicah McFaddenMLBJordon RileyNTSaquon BarkleyRBAndrew ThomasT
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:55) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left intended for 17-J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Pinnock (58-B.Okereke) at NYG -2. 27-J.Pinnock for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:55 · Dolphins · 3rd & goal at NYG 4 · gained nothing · -11.46 EP · −18.2% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 94 yards from the MIA 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
792
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1063%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27+0.2244%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.1990%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.3142%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Dolphins 49
Giants0Dolphins6
Giants0Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Giants 2
The period ended14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Dolphins 30
2nd quarter55 plays
No good1 play
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Giants 43
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 45
Giants0Dolphins13
Giants0Dolphins14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 6 to the Dolphins 24
Giants3Dolphins14
Field goal18 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Dolphins 25
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Giants9Dolphins14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Giants 4
Giants10Dolphins14
Giants10Dolphins17
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Giants 22
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Giants10Dolphins23
Giants10Dolphins24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 31
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Dolphins 44
Intercepted5 plays, from the Dolphins 10 to the Dolphins 27
Giants13Dolphins24
Field goal5 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 16
Giants13Dolphins30
Giants13Dolphins31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Giants 2
4th quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 32
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Dolphins 31
Giants16Dolphins31
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Dolphins 29
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Dolphins 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
