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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 5
It turned at Q4 0:41, 2nd and 10, on Russell Wilson — 26.2 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:41 · 2nd and 10
Russell Wilson
Jets
(:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 34 for -7 yards (56-Qu.Williams). FUMBLES (56-Qu.Williams) [56-Qu.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Bry.Hall at DEN 39. 37-Bry.Hall for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
New York Jets 31–21. Biggest swing: Q4 0:41, Jets +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.24 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 5 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.00 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.22 expected points per snap.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 10 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 12 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 34 for -7 yards (56-Qu.Williams). FUMBLES (56-Qu.Williams) [56-Qu.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Bry.Hall at DEN 39. 37-Bry.Hall for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Breece Hall's 72-yard rushing touchdown with 13:39 left in the 3rd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Jetssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+25–712 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryBroncos
Jets ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 62 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Broncos’s 57 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Jets 7, Broncos 4.
Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's play-action rate, 10.0%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate, 67.4%, is past their previous high of 63.8% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
NYJ's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.8 pts in week 4 against −9.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-9.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.7 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 62 snaps
Broncos-0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.8 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.72× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 97%
Tendencies room →Jets42.0%leaned — ran early · −18.8 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 50 early downs
Broncos67.4%leaned — passed early · +11.1 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 44%
Tendencies room →Jets12.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Broncos10.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.1 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.7%.
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 64%
Tendencies room →Jets15.0%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Broncos15.2%leaned — sat back · −16.7 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Jets17.5%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Broncos15.2%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
DEN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 15.2%, 16.7 points below their season mean of 31.9% and 1.3 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
19/26, 199 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-7.2 expected points added · +7.2% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
20/31, 196 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
-10.4 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Breece Hall banked 13.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 28.4 | +13.4 | 52% | 30% | 12% | 0% | 22 car, 177 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 17 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 18.7 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/31, 196 yd, 2 TD · 7 car, 49 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Committee Back | 17.9 | +6.0 | 33% | 22% | 15% | 0% | 9 car, 68 yd · 3/4, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Featured Receiver | 12.6 | +2.4 | 90% | 73% | 19% | 21% | 4/5, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Samaje PerineRB · Committee Back | 11.5 | +1.7 | 60% | 61% | 19% | 2% | 6 car, 22 yd · 4/5, 73 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | −0.2 | 86% | 83% | 26% | 37% | 6/7, 50 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | +2.2 | 55% | 64% | 19% | 20% | 4/5, 67 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 8.6 | −4.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/26, 199 yd, 1 INT · 3 car, 26 yd |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.4 | −5.1 | 83% | 88% | 27% | 59% | 3/7, 54 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +0.9 | 92% | 85% | 15% | 20% | 3/4, 33 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Receiving Back | 5.2 | +0.7 | 31% | 52% | 12% | 0% | 1 car, 8 yd · 3/3, 14 yd |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.3 | 45% | 36% | 8% | 1% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −2.4 | 86% | 78% | 11% | 23% | 1/3, 13 yd |
| Dalvin CookRB | 2.3 | −0.8 | 17% | 9% | 0% | — | 6 car, 23 yd |
| Michael BurtonRB | 2.0 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 51% | 54% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.6 | 32% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.4 | 29% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 35% | 52% | 4% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Nick BawdenRB | 0.0 | — | 26% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at DEN 34 for -7 yards (56-Qu.Williams). FUMBLES (56-Qu.Williams) [56-Qu.Williams], RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Bry.Hall at DEN 39. 37-Bry.Hall for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:41 · Broncos · 2nd & 10 at DEN 41 · lost 2 · -7.94 EP · −25.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets3
Broncos0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Jets3Broncos6Jets3Broncos7Jets5Broncos7Jets5Broncos10Jets8Broncos10Jets8Broncos13How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
Jets14Broncos13Jets15Broncos13Jets18Broncos13How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Jets21Broncos13Jets24Broncos13Jets24Broncos19Jets24Broncos21How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Jets30Broncos21Jets31Broncos21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/26 | 199 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −7.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 22 | 177 | 8.0 | 1 | +7.5 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 19% | +3.9 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 27% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Mosley | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 5 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Adams | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Gardner |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/31 | 196 | 2 | 0 | 4 | −10.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_05_NYJ_DEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 52 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
| Michael Carter | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 15% | +1.6 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 12% | −1.8 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 8% | −3.4 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Bryce Hall | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Johnson | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
| 68 |
| 7.6 |
| 0 |
| +1.2 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 | −7.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 | 19% | +3.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 26% | +3.1 |
| Adam Trautman | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 19% | +1.9 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 15% | −0.3 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 11% | −1.3 |
| Brandon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.2 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.9 |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damarri Mathis | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Allen | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
