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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 23 at Los Angeles Rams 14. Final.
Eagles -3.5 ✓U 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 5
Philadelphia Eagles 23, Rams 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:38, 3rd and 10, on Puka Nacua — 18.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:38 · 3rd and 10
Puka Nacua
Rams
(:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Eagles closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 9.
Philadelphia Eagles 23–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:38, Rams +18.1% win probability on one snap.
18.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.J. BrownEaglesQ2 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown to LA 28 for 38 yards (1-D.Kendrick). PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Horse Collar Tackle, 14 yards, enforced at LA 28.
12.3pts
Jalen HurtsEaglesQ2 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 14 - No Play.
16.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Eagles won this one — 13 of 18 on third down, against Rams at 6 of 14 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Rams at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.28 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Eagles158 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.1 for RamsExpected points +3.62 for RamsThe model had Rams 18 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:38LA +18% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-P.Nacua for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:07LA +16% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 13 yards, enforced at LA 14 - No Play.
2nd · 0:17LA +12% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle to 11-A.Brown to LA 28 for 38 yards (1-D.Kendrick). PENALTY on LA-1-D.Kendrick, Horse Collar Tackle, 14 yards, enforced at LA 28.
3rd · 7:41PHI +10% win prob(7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 44-A.Witherspoon at LA -1. Touchback.
2nd · 1:38LA +9% win prob(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at PHI 22 for 39 yards (2-D.Slay).
3rd · 13:52LA +9% win prob(13:52) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LA 20 for 11 yards (24-J.Bradberry). PENALTY on PHI-52-Z.Cunningham, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at LA 20.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jalen Hurts's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:02 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
1st2:04Tutu Atwell·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–7
2nd2:19Jake Elliott·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+310–7
2nd0:38Puka Nacua·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+710–14
2nd0:02Jalen Hurts·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–14
4th12:33Jake Elliott·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+320–14
4th4:09Jake Elliott·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+323–14
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryRams
Eagles8–1Rams
454Total yards249
5.8Yards per play4.5
49%Success rate40%
72%Third-down rate43%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays3
25First downs15
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Rams, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Eagles: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.00Rams: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.28Eagles: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Eagles: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.17Rams: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 78 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Rams 2.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 4.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 5 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 10.0% in week 3.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
LA's play-action rate, 4.9%, is past their previous low of 8.5% in week 2 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 4.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +5.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Rams4.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.7%, 20.3 points above their season mean of 53.4% and 1.8 times their own 11.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 44-A.Witherspoon at LA -1. Touchback.
Q3 7:41 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at LA 20 · gained nothing · -6.20 EP · −13.5% win probability
156 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 9 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59+0.1058%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0075%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.4236%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.030%
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Eagles6Rams0
Eagles7Rams0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Rams 5
Eagles7Rams6
Eagles7Rams7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Eagles 3
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 40
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 41 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 27
Eagles10Rams7
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 28 to the Rams 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Eagles10Rams13
Eagles10Rams14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Eagles 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles16Rams14
Eagles17Rams14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Rams 1
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Eagles 45
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Rams 20
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Eagles 43
The period ended12 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Rams 21
4th quarter51 plays
Eagles20Rams14
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 8
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 42
Eagles23Rams14
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Rams 8
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 43
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
