2023 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 8, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

TEN -2.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Indianapolis Colts 23–16. Biggest swing: Q1 0:50, IND +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:50TEN 3 — IND 6IND ball · 3rd & 1TEN 69%

(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:50IND +18% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:09TEN +17% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to IND 5 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 44-Z.Franklin).
Q2 · 11:56IND +13% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs to TEN 16 for 38 yards (24-E.Molden).
Q4 · 3:03IND +12% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 35 for 10 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting) [96-D.Autry].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:17TEN Field goal
(3:17) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — IND 0
Q1 · 0:50IND Touchdown
(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 3 — IND 7
Q2 · 9:36IND Field goal
(9:36) 7-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: TEN 3 — IND 10
Q2 · 4:44TEN Field goal
(4:44) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 6 — IND 10
Q3 · 12:56TEN Touchdown
(12:56) 32-T.Spears right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 13 — IND 10
Q3 · 8:04IND Touchdown
(8:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TEN 13 — IND 17
Q3 · 2:06TEN Field goal
(2:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Score after this play: TEN 16 — IND 17
Q4 · 13:26IND Field goal
(13:26) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: TEN 16 — IND 20
Q4 · 1:03IND Field goal
(1:03) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: TEN 16 — IND 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Colts
Offensive plays	56	60
Total yards	349	430 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	7.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.10	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	43% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	64%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	8/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

23/34, 264 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

9.3 expected points added · +2.9% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

11/14, 155 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.4 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

23 att, 165 yds, 2 TD

6.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

13 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

8/11 for 140 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

6/6 for 97 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 20	8	31	3:16	Punt
2	TEN	TEN 16	16	70	8:31	Field goal +3
3	IND	IND 25	7	75	2:32	Touchdown +7
4	TEN	TEN 25	5	2	1:03	Punt
5	IND	IND 35	10	50	5:06	Field goal +3
6	TEN	TEN 17	11	53	4:53	Field goal +3
7	IND	IND 25	13	70	4:28	Turnover on downs
8	TEN	TEN 5	1	0	0:11	End of half
9	TEN	TEN 25	6	75	2:12	Touchdown +7
10	IND	IND 25	11	53	4:48	Touchdown +7
11	TEN	TEN 25	12	69	5:58	Field goal +3
12	IND	IND 25	8	73	3:40	Field goal +3
13	TEN	TEN 25	10	70	5:19	Turnover on downs
14	IND	IND 6	14	78	7:03	Field goal +3
15	TEN	TEN 25	8	10	0:50	Interception
16	IND	TEN 48	1	0	0:10	End of game

9 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	23/34	264	0	1	1	9.3
Derrick Henry	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	13	43	3.3	0	-5.4
Tyjae Spears	7	34	4.9	1	1.2
Ryan Tannehill	2	12	6.0	0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	8	11	140	32%	8.8
Tyjae Spears	4	5	35	15%	1.1
Chigoziem Okonkwo	5	9	33	26%	-1.2
Trevon Wesco	1	1	21	3%	1.7
Derrick Henry	3	3	19	9%	-0.2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	1	3	9	9%	-0.4
Josh Whyle	1	1	7	3%	0.8
Kyle Philips	0	1	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Azeez Al-Shaair	6	8	0.0	0
Kristian Fulton	6	1	0.0	1
Kevin Byard	1	6	0.0	0
Jack Gibbens	3	3	0.0	0
Roger McCreary	5	1	1.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	2	1	0.0	0
Jeffery Simmons	1	2	0.0	0
Elijah Molden	1	2	0.0	0
Amani Hooker	1	2	0.0	0
Harold Landry	1	2	0.0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	11/14	155	0	0	0	7.4
Anthony Richardson	9/12	98	0	0	1	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	23	165	7.2	2	6.2
Jonathan Taylor	6	18	3.0	0	-1.7
Anthony Richardson	2	5	2.5	0	-0.5
Isaiah McKenzie	1	4	4.0	0	0.1
Gardner Minshew	2	1	0.5	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Downs	6	6	97	25%	8.1
Michael Pittman	5	7	52	29%	0.2
Zack Moss	2	2	30	8%	2.4
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	17	4%	1.6
Jonathan Taylor	1	1	16	4%	1.0
Andrew Ogletree	2	2	16	8%	1.7
Kylen Granson	2	3	15	13%	-2.9
Alec Pierce	1	2	10	8%	1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zaire Franklin	5	5	0.0	0	1
Kenny Moore	7	2	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	2	4	0.0	0	1
Julian Blackmon	4	1	0.0	1	1
Julius Brents	3	1	0.0	0	1
Grant Stuard	2	0	0.0	0	0
Rodney Thomas	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	1	1.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -2.5
Closing total: 43.5
TEN moneyline: -142
IND moneyline: +120

Titans closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 39 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.