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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans153 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +18.0 for ColtsExpected points +4.79 for ColtsThe model had Colts 14 points higher than the market did.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:50IND +18% win prob(:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:09TEN +17% win prob(8:09) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to IND 5 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 44-Z.Franklin).
2nd · 11:56IND +13% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass deep left to 1-J.Downs to TEN 16 for 38 yards (24-E.Molden).
4th · 3:03IND +12% win prob(3:03) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 14-A.Pierce to TEN 35 for 10 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting) [96-D.Autry].
3rd · 13:43IND +12% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins to IND 19 for 36 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
4th · 11:31IND +12% win prob(11:31) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins pushed ob at IND 27 for 25 yards (29-J.Brents).
4th · 6:41
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zack Moss's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 8:04 left in the 3rd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:17Nick Folk·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+33–0
3rd8:04Zack Moss·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+713–17
3rd2:06Nick Folk·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder R.Stonehouse · snap M.Cox+316–17
4th13:26Matt Gay·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–20
4th1:03Matt Gay·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Titans1–6Colts
349Total yards430
6.2Yards per play7.2
43%Success rate42%
42%Third-down rate62%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays9
18First downs19
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Titans: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Titans: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.29Colts: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Titans: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.13Colts: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 56 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Colts’s 60 at 47%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Colts 6.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.6% in week 4 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Colts22.2%
leaned — got home · +6.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 37.0%, 16.8 points below their season mean of 53.7% and 1.3 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
71Andre DillardT · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Christopher HubbardT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Peter SkoronskiT · Every snap100%60 snaps
60Daniel BrunskillC · Every snap100%60 snaps
55Aaron BrewerG · Every snap100%60 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Full-time83%50 snaps
15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Henry right−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:09) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right tackle to IND 5 for no gain (99-D.Buckner; 44-Z.Franklin).
Q4 8:09 · Titans · 4th & 1 at IND 5 · gained nothing · -4.00 EP · −20.0% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 84 yards from the IND 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
38%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3651%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.1846%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0887%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5018%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5950%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Titans 49
Titans3Colts0
Field goal17 plays, from the Titans 16 to the Colts 9
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Titans3Colts6
Titans3Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 44
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Titans3Colts10
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Titans 15
Titans6Colts10
Field goal12 plays, from the Titans 17 to the Colts 35
The period ended17 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 5
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Titans12Colts10
Titans13Colts10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 19
Titans13Colts16
Titans13Colts17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 3
Titans16Colts17
Field goal13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 14
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 20
4th quarter45 plays
Titans16Colts20
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 12
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linemen, one linebacker and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 5
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
Titans16Colts23
Field goal20 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Titans 10
Intercepted8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
