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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q2 13:38, 4th and 11 — 14.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:38 · 4th and 11
Unnamed on the sheet
Cardinals
(13:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 16 for 1 yard (26-B.Price, 32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), touched at LA 16, RECOVERED by ARI-26-B.Price at LA 17.
Los Angeles Rams 26–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 13:38, Cardinals +14.2% win probability on one snap.
14.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(13:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 16 for 1 yard (26-B.Price, 32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), touched at LA 16, RECOVERED by ARI-26-B.Price at LA 17.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cooper Kupp's 13-yard touchdown catch with 9:01 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Cooper Kupp13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+79–139 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 72 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Rams’s 53 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Rams 5.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's blitz rate sent, 4.3%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
LA's early-down pass rate, 40.5%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points.
LA's sack or hit rate, 21.7%, is past their previous high of 17.2% in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
ARI's blitz rate sent, 7.7%, is past their previous low of 11.1% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
LA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 5 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals-5.0 ptsright on their number · +1.4 vs their -6.4 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 72 snaps
Rams-7.6 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 53 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Cardinals53.8%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 52 early downs
Rams40.5%leaned — ran early · −13.0 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Cardinals8.7%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.8 vs their 21.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Rams11.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.73× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals66.7%inside their normal wobble · +18.8 vs their 47.9%, and they swing ±25.3 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Rams0.0%leaned — took the kick · −33.6 vs their 33.6%, and they swing ±28.5 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 58%
Tendencies room →Cardinals7.7%leaned — sat back · −12.1 vs their 19.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Rams4.3%off script — sat back · −23.9 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−2.09× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 28%
Tendencies room →Cardinals11.5%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Rams21.7%leaned — got home · +8.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
LA's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 4.3%, 23.9 points below their season mean of 28.2% and 2.1 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
21/41, 235 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-17.5 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected
Passing · LA
15/24, 226 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.3 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Trey McBride banked 2.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.2 | +2.2 | 58% | 46% | 13% | 9% | 4/5, 62 yd |
| Joshua DobbsQB · Starter QB | 10.1 | −10.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/41, 235 yd, 1 INT · 7 car, 47 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +2.1 | 88% | 87% | 11% | 14% | 3/4, 62 yd |
| Marquise BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.4 | −14.2 | 89% | 83% | 29% | 43% | 4/11, 34 yd |
| Keaontay IngramRB | 7.1 | −1.2 | 37% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 10 car, 40 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Rondale MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −4.5 | 66% | 65% | 18% | 0% | 3 car, -4 yd · 4/7, 30 yd |
| Damien WilliamsRB | 5.4 | +0.5 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 36 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −3.3 | 46% | 50% | 13% | 11% | 2/5, 22 yd |
| Emari DemercadoRB | 2.7 | +0.3 | 43% | 59% | 3% | 1% | 2 car, 11 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 21% | 26% | 3% | 9% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Zach PascalWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 14% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to LA 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-A.Trammell to LA 16 for 1 yard (26-B.Price, 32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), touched at LA 16, RECOVERED by ARI-26-B.Price at LA 17.
Q2 13:38 · Cardinals · 4th & 11 at ARI 40 · gained nothing · +5.84 EP · +19.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 176 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Cardinals3
Rams0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Cardinals3Rams3Cardinals6Rams3Cardinals9Rams3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Cardinals9Rams6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Cardinals9Rams12Cardinals9Rams13Cardinals9Rams16How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Cardinals9Rams22Cardinals9Rams23Cardinals9Rams26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 21/41 | 235 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −17.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Damien Williams | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 13% | −0.4 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 11% | +6.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyzir White | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Woods | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Wilson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antonio Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 15/24 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_ARI_LA
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -7 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 48; the game landed 35 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Emari Demercado | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 | −2.7 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 29% | −5.0 |
| Rondale Moore | 4 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 18% | +0.7 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −6.7 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Emari Demercado | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Greg Dortch | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Zach Pascal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andre Chachere | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ledbetter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kei'Trel Clark | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| K'Von Wallace | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Dimukeje | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
| 158 |
| 7.9 |
| 1 |
| +7.6 |
| Zach Evans | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 9 | 148 | 1 | 43% | +10.2 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 33% | −1.5 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Ronnie Rivers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kobie Turner | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Hoecht | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russ Yeast | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
