For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:30 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q3 4:43, 3rd and 1, on Geno Stone — 8.0 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:43 · 3rd and 1
Geno Stone
Ravens
(4:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 20. 26-G.Stone to BAL 44 for 24 yards (32-T.Spears). BAL-32-M.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Baltimore Ravens 24–16. Biggest swing: Q3 4:43, Ravens +8.0% win probability on one snap.
8.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 8 of 16 on third down, against Titans at 1 of 9 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Titans at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.12 expected points per carry, against Ravens at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
(4:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 20. 26-G.Stone to BAL 44 for 24 yards (32-T.Spears). BAL-32-M.Williams was injured during the play. His return is
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Justin Tucker's 28-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Justin Tucker28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.OttLead never changed again+36–3
Zay Flowers10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar Jackson · kick blocked by D.Autry+615–311 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryTitans
Ravens ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 69 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Titans’s 46 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Titans 4.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's sack or hit rate, 33.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.3 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
TEN's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 5 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.1 points.
TEN's play-action rate turned over: 38.9% in week 5 against 16.7% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-4.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 69 snaps
Titans-2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +2.5 vs their -5.2 pts, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 46 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 77%
Tendencies room →Ravens50.9%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 52.4%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 53 early downs
Titans56.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 51.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.73× that swing) · 37 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 52%
Tendencies room →Ravens16.2%right on their number · −3.8 vs their 20.0%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Titans16.7%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 26.4%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Ravens0.0%inside their normal wobble · −16.7 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±18.8 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Titans0.0%leaned — took the kick · −37.6 vs their 37.6%, and they swing ±27.1 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 56%
Tendencies room →Ravens20.0%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 23.7%, and they swing ±12.6 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans24.3%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 20.6%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 36%
Tendencies room →Ravens33.3%off script — got home · +17.0 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+2.81× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Titans2.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
BAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 17.0 points above their season mean of 16.4% and 2.8 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tennessee Titans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · BAL
21/30, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.8 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
8/16, 76 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-10.5 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Derrick Henry banked 10.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.3 | +10.9 | 53% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 12 car, 97 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 17.1 | −11.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 223 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 13 car, 62 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.1 | +3.5 | 89% | 76% | 28% | 26% | 1 car, 1 yd · 6/8, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | 0.0 | 85% | 76% | 21% | 40% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/6, 69 yd |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | 7.3 | +3.9 | 56% | 57% | 5% | 0% | 4 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 48 yd |
| Justice HillRB · Receiving Back | 6.5 | −2.8 | 38% | 35% | 10% | 0% | 8 car, 35 yd · 3/3, 0 yd |
| Gus EdwardsRB · Committee Back | 6.3 | −6.3 | 62% | 49% | 3% | 1% | 16 car, 41 yd · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.3 | 52% | 51% | 10% | 17% | 2/3, 40 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Featured Receiver | 5.5 | −1.9 | 71% | 60% | 20% | 21% | 3/4, 25 yd |
| Odell BeckhamWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −1.7 | 41% | 41% | 14% | 12% | 2/4, 34 yd |
| Malik WillisQB | 4.7 | +0.1 | 33% | — | 0% | — | 4/5, 74 yd · 3 car, 17 yd |
| Chigoziem OkonkwoTE | 3.8 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Rashod BatemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | −1.0 | 48% | 41% | 10% | 10% | 2/3, 15 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.0 | −6.6 | 87% | 87% | 25% | 36% | 1/5, 20 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kyle PhilipsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −0.8 | 49% | 50% | 10% | 9% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Chris MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.2 | 36% | 37% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Patrick RicardRB | 1.3 | −0.9 | 32% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Ryan TannehillQB · Starter QB | 1.0 | −6.5 | 67% | — | 0% | — | 8/16, 76 yd, 1 INT |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 21% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kevin RaderTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | 13% | 0% | — | No touches. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 20. 26-G.Stone to BAL 44 for 24 yards (32-T.Spears). BAL-32-M.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q3 4:43 · Titans · 3rd & 1 at BAL 48 · gained nothing · -4.32 EP · −9.9% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 83 yards from the TEN 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Ravens3
Titans0Ravens3Titans3Ravens6Titans3Ravens9Titans3Ravens15Titans3Ravens18Titans3Ravens18Titans6Ravens18Titans12Ravens18Titans13Ravens21Titans13Ravens24Titans13Ravens24Titans16Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Titans, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/30 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 | −3.5 |
| Justice Hill | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 21% | +3.4 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 28% | +5.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Broderick Washington |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 8/16 | 76 | 0 | 1 | 2 | −10.5 |
| Malik Willis | 4/5 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −0.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_BAL_TEN
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 40 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 10% | +3.5 |
| Odell Beckham | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 14% | +0.8 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 10% | −3.7 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Geno Stone | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 | 5% | +4.0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 20% | +1.5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 25% | −2.1 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 20% | −3.8 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5% | +0.8 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −1.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amani Hooker | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sean Murphy-Bunting | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kristian Fulton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denico Autry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shyheim Carter | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Peko | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
