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2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

24

Tennessee Titans

16

BAL -5.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓

Baltimore Ravens 24–16. Biggest swing: Q3 4:43, BAL +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑BAL ↓
Q3 · 4:43BAL 18 — TEN 13TEN ball · 3rd & 1BAL 77%

(4:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 20. 26-G.Stone to BAL 44 for 24 yards (32-T.Spears). BAL-32-M.Williams was injured during the play. His return is

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 4:43BAL +8% win prob(4:43) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 85-C.Okonkwo INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at BAL 20. 26-G.Stone to BAL 44 for 24 yards (32-T.Spears). BAL-32-M.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
  2. Q3 · 8:32TEN +6% win prob(8:32) 22-D.Henry left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 6:59TEN +5% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to TEN 43 for 38 yards (0-S.Murphy-Bunting).
  4. Q3 · 3:23TEN +5% win prob(3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end to TEN 36 for 12 yards (31-K.Byard). Penalty on TEN-96-D.Autry, Defensive Offside, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:30BAL Field goal

    (10:30) 9-J.Tucker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — TEN 0
  2. Q1 · 5:38TEN Field goal

    (5:38) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: BAL 3 — TEN 3
  3. Q1 · 0:07BAL Field goal

    (:07) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 6 — TEN 3
  4. Q2 · 10:16BAL Field goal

    (10:16) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 9 — TEN 3
  5. Q2 · 3:36BAL Touchdown

    (3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: BAL 15 — TEN 3
  6. Q2 · 0:01BAL Field goal

    (:01) 9-J.Tucker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 18 — TEN 3
  7. Q3 · 9:27TEN Field goal

    (9:27) 6-N.Folk 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: BAL 18 — TEN 6
  8. Q3 · 8:32TEN Touchdown

    (8:32) 22-D.Henry left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: BAL 18 — TEN 13
  9. Q4 · 12:52BAL Field goal

    (12:52) 9-J.Tucker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 21 — TEN 13
  10. Q4 · 4:19BAL Field goal

    (4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: BAL 24 — TEN 13
  11. Q4 · 0:41TEN Field goal

    (:41) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    Score after this play: BAL 24 — TEN 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensTitans
Offensive plays6946
Total yards361 (edge)233
Yards per play5.2 (edge)5.1
Expected points added / play0.02 (edge)-0.20
Success rate49% (edge)39%
Dropback rate54%65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.160.12 (edge)
Third downs8/16 (edge)1/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)6
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)9
Sacks taken1 (edge)6
Turnovers11

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

21/30, 223 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.8 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

8/16, 76 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.5 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

12 att, 97 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

4/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

6/8 for 50 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 279504:34Field goal +3
2TENTEN 2510384:52Field goal +3
3BALBAL 1411765:30Field goal +3
4TENTEN 25591:24Punt
5BALTEN 176123:27Field goal +3
6TENTEN 25571:34Punt
7BALBAL 2011675:11Touchdown +6
8TENTEN 256121:41Punt
9BALBAL 179371:46Punt
10BALTEN 11100:01Field goal +3
11TENTEN 25512:09Punt
12BALBAL 324-10:56Punt
13TENTEN 87682:31Field goal +3
14BALBAL 25310:47Interception
15TENBAL 252150:13Touchdown +7
16BALBAL 255-11:35Punt
17TENTEN 314212:22Interception
18BALBAL 4413546:38Field goal +3
19TENTEN 257163:54Punt
20BALBAL 1011664:39Field goal +3
21TENTEN 2511463:38Field goal +3
22BALTEN 42200:38End of game

11 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson21/302231115.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Jackson13624.800.4
Gus Edwards16412.60-3.5
Justice Hill8354.40-0.7
Zay Flowers111.00-0.4
Mark Andrews100.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mark Andrews4669021%3.4
Zay Flowers6850128%5.1
Nelson Agholor2340010%3.5
Odell Beckham2434014%0.8
Rashod Bateman2315010%-3.7
Gus Edwards111203%1.8
Patrick Ricard11303%-0.4
Justice Hill330010%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith350.000
Patrick Queen521.000
Nnamdi Madubuike412.000
Broderick Washington210.000
Geno Stone120.011
Malik Harrison120.000
Marlon Humphrey210.000
Jadeveon Clowney202.000
Rashod Bateman100.000
Kyle Van Noy101.001

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Ryan Tannehill8/1676012-10.5
Malik Willis4/574004-0.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry12978.112.6
Malik Willis3175.70-0.5
Tyjae Spears4153.80-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyjae Spears114805%4.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine3425020%1.5
DeAndre Hopkins1520025%-2.1
Chigoziem Okonkwo2418020%-3.8
Derrick Henry2216010%1.2
Josh Whyle111105%0.8
Chris Moore11605%-0.7
Kyle Philips126010%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair860.000
Kevin Byard820.000
Amani Hooker710.000
Jack Gibbens530.000
Harold Landry401.000
Sean Murphy-Bunting300.011
Kristian Fulton210.001
Denico Autry120.000
Shyheim Carter110.000
Kyle Peko200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Closing total
42.5
BAL moneyline
-250
TEN moneyline
+205

Ravens closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 40 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Tottenham Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors
Kickoff weather
—
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
BAL 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike Vrabel