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2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

Carolina Panthers

21

Miami DolphinsWinner

42

MIA -14 ✓O 47.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:00, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑CAR ↓
Q1 · 8:00CAR 0 — MIA 0CAR ball · 2nd & 9MIA 82%

(8:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end pushed ob at MIA 6 for 19 yards (8-J.Holland).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 8:00MIA +11% win prob(8:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end pushed ob at MIA 6 for 19 yards (8-J.Holland).
  2. Q1 · 0:09MIA +10% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 2:00MIA +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
  4. Q1 · 6:08CAR +8% win prob(6:08) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 26, recovered by MIA-31-R.Mostert at MIA 25. 31-R.Mostert pushed ob at MIA 24 for -1 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:18CAR Touchdown

    (7:18) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-55-J.Baker, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — MIA 0
  2. Q1 · 0:09CAR Touchdown

    (:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — MIA 0
  3. Q2 · 11:19MIA Touchdown

    (11:19) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 31-R.Mostert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — MIA 7
  4. Q2 · 7:07MIA Touchdown

    (7:07) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — MIA 14
  5. Q2 · 2:00MIA Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — MIA 21
  6. Q3 · 6:25MIA Touchdown

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — MIA 28
  7. Q4 · 12:27MIA Touchdown

    (12:27) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 14 — MIA 35
  8. Q4 · 4:37CAR Touchdown

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 14-M.White pass short right intended for 26-S.Ahmed INTERCEPTED by 13-T.Hill at CAR 39. 13-T.Hill for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 21 — MIA 35
  9. Q4 · 2:38MIA Touchdown

    (2:38) 26-S.Ahmed right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 21 — MIA 42

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersDolphins
Offensive plays6862
Total yards296428 (edge)
Yards per play4.46.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.140.18 (edge)
Success rate35%47% (edge)
Dropback rate63%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.300.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.130.13 (edge)
Third downs5/147/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1922 (edge)
Sacks taken40 (edge)
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

21/31, 262 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.1 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

23/38, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-11.0 expected points added · +3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

17 att, 115 yds, 2 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Chuba HubbardRB

19 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

6/10 for 163 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 10.9 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

11/13 for 115 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 25561:53Punt
2MIAMIA 26462:07Punt
3CARCAR 368643:47Touchdown +7
4MIAMIA 25591:46Punt
5CARCAR 2611695:21Touchdown +7
6MIAMIA 2511753:53Touchdown +7
7CARCAR 258312:53Turnover on downs
8MIAMIA 434571:20Touchdown +7
9CARCAR 25541:59Punt
10MIAMIA 2810723:07Touchdown +7
11CARCAR 359401:54Missed field goal
12MIAMIA 25500:20Punt
13CARCAR 30763:08Punt
14MIAMIA 99865:11Touchdown +7
15CARCAR 2511513:53Turnover on downs
16MIAMIA 2413755:05Touchdown +7
17CARCAR 256-82:40Punt
18MIAMIA 355112:16Punt
19CARCAR 87272:38Turnover on downs
20MIACAR 39300:23Defensive touchdown
21MIACAR 377371:55Touchdown +7
22CARCAR 25560:38Turnover on downs
23MIACAR 31301:53End of game

8 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young23/38217104-11.0
Johnny Hekker1/17000-1.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Chuba Hubbard19884.613.6
Raheem Blackshear5183.600.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen1113115137%9.2
D.J. Chark3626017%-3.3
Tommy Tremble222506%1.4
Jonathan Mingo232109%0.6
Hayden Hurst131609%-3.0
Laviska Shenault Jr.331509%-2.7
Raheem Blackshear11403%-0.1
Chuba Hubbard11203%-0.7
Terrace Marshall03009%-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
C.J. Henderson610.001
Frankie Luvu340.000
Matthias Farley510.000
Kamu Grugier-Hill320.000
Sam Franklin220.001
Donte Jackson400.000
Shy Tuttle300.003
Troy Hill110.011
Justin Houston100.000
Deion Jones100.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa21/3126230016.1
Mike White0/10010-9.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Raheem Mostert171156.826.0
Christopher Brooks6284.70-1.7
Salvon Ahmed6233.813.0
Tua Tagovailoa100.00-3.4
Mike White3-4-1.30-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyreek Hill610163133%10.9
Jaylen Waddle7951130%3.7
Braxton Berrios222007%3.5
Raheem Mostert3317110%2.3
Salvon Ahmed3511017%-10.9
Durham Smythe01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
David Long Jr.270.000
Bradley Chubb421.000
Eli Apple420.001
Christian Wilkins232.000
Xavien Howard410.000
DeShon Elliott220.000
Jerome Baker310.000
Kader Kohou400.002
Andrew Van Ginkel210.000
Parry Nickerson300.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -14
Closing total
47.5
CAR moneyline
+700
MIA moneyline
-1100

Dolphins closed -14 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 63 — over by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
87°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
CAR 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Mike McDaniel