For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:56 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina21
BY 21final margin
DolphinsMiami42
Carolina Panthers 21 at Miami Dolphins 42. Final.
Dolphins -14 ✓O 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Miami Dolphins 42, Panthers 21 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 8:00, 2nd and 9, on Chuba Hubbard — 11.1 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:00 · 2nd and 9
Chuba Hubbard
Panthers
(8:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end pushed ob at MIA 6 for 19 yards (8-J.Holland).
Dolphins closed -14 and covered, winning by 21.
Miami Dolphins 42–21 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 8:00, Panthers +11.1% win probability on one snap.
11.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adam ThielenPanthersQ1 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.0pts
Tyreek HillDolphinsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
9.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 4 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Panthers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.14 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 41 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Panthers168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(8:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end pushed ob at MIA 6 for 19 yards (8-J.Holland).
Swing −11.1 for DolphinsExpected points −1.87 for DolphinsThe model had Panthers 36 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:00MIA +11% win prob(8:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end pushed ob at MIA 6 for 19 yards (8-J.Holland).
1st · 0:09MIA +10% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00MIA +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 6:08CAR +8% win prob(6:08) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 26, recovered by MIA-31-R.Mostert at MIA 25. 31-R.Mostert pushed ob at MIA 24 for -1 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).
2nd · 8:20MIA +7% win prob(8:20) 31-R.Mostert left tackle pushed ob at CAR 8 for 49 yards (23-C.Henderson).
2nd · 10:35MIA +5% win prob(10:35) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to CAR 37 for 8 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyreek Hill's 41-yard touchdown catch with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Panthers: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Panthers: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.22Dolphins: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.13Dolphins: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 68 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 62 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Dolphins 6.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's play-action rate turned over: 41.9% in week 5 against 18.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.1 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.71× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Dolphins20.9%
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteCAR's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 53.1%, 22.3 points above their season mean of 30.9% and 1.9 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Tagovailoa pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIA-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q2 2:00 · Dolphins · 3rd & 6 at CAR 41 · gained 41 · +4.95 EP · +14.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 91 yards from the MIA 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1767%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR31+0.2145%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.2261%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.4057%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3017%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Dolphins 32
Panthers6Dolphins0
Panthers7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Dolphins 6
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
Panthers13Dolphins0
Panthers14Dolphins0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Dolphins 8
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Panthers14Dolphins6
Panthers14Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 48 to the Panthers 3
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
Panthers14Dolphins13
Panthers14Dolphins14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Panthers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Panthers14Dolphins20
Panthers14Dolphins21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Panthers 41
The period ended11 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Dolphins 25
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Panthers 45
Panthers14Dolphins27
Panthers14Dolphins28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Panthers 4
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Dolphins 24
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Panthers 33
4th quarter50 plays
Panthers14Dolphins34
Panthers14Dolphins35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Dolphins 48
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 40
Panthers20Dolphins35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 35
Panthers21Dolphins35
Panthers21Dolphins41
Panthers21Dolphins42
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 37 to the Panthers 8
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 31
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
