2023 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 16, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

DAL -1.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeCowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Dallas Cowboys 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, LAC +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 15:00DAL 10 — LAC 10DAL ball · 3rd & 11DAL 52%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards (26-A.Samuel).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 15:00LAC +20% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards (26-A.Samuel).
Q4 · 8:55LAC +18% win prob(8:55) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Tolbert MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at DAL 20.
Q4 · 5:52LAC +15% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 26 for 9 yards (6-E.Kendricks). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 26. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q3 · 7:47DAL +13% win prob(7:47) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 5-J.Palmer (26-D.Bland).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:34LAC Touchdown
(10:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 0 — LAC 7
Q1 · 6:26DAL Touchdown
(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott right tackle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 7 — LAC 7
Q2 · 0:03DAL Field goal
(:03) 17-B.Aubrey 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 10 — LAC 7
Q3 · 1:11LAC Field goal
(1:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: DAL 10 — LAC 10
Q4 · 11:26DAL Touchdown
(11:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 17 — LAC 10
Q4 · 7:15LAC Touchdown
(7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DAL 17 — LAC 17
Q4 · 2:23DAL Field goal
(2:23) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Score after this play: DAL 20 — LAC 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Chargers
Offensive plays	59	61
Total yards	344 (edge)	272
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.5
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.11
Success rate	41% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	64%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	5/13 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

21/30, 272 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

22/37, 227 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

7 att, 40 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Tony PollardRB

15 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

7/7 for 117 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

7/11 for 85 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 5.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 22	5	-7	2:06	Punt
2	LAC	DAL 42	6	47	2:23	Touchdown +7
3	DAL	DAL 25	11	75	4:10	Touchdown +7
4	LAC	LAC 25	5	3	1:39	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 22	6	31	2:55	Punt
6	LAC	LAC 2	11	36	5:12	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 12	4	6	2:04	Punt
8	LAC	LAC 32	4	3	2:05	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 22	10	50	5:03	Turnover on downs
10	LAC	LAC 13	8	43	1:24	Punt
11	DAL	DAL 29	6	52	0:59	Field goal +3
12	LAC	LAC 25	14	78	7:18	Turnover on downs
13	DAL	DAL 7	4	-2	1:32	Punt
14	LAC	DAL 49	10	43	5:02	Field goal +3
15	DAL	DAL 25	10	85	4:49	Touchdown +7
16	LAC	LAC 25	6	19	2:38	Punt
17	LAC	DAL 20	5	5	1:30	Touchdown +7
18	DAL	DAL 25	15	54	4:52	Field goal +3
19	LAC	LAC 25	4	-5	0:57	Interception
20	DAL	LAC 33	2	0	1:22	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	21/30	272	1	0	5	6.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dak Prescott	7	40	5.7	1	0.2
Tony Pollard	15	30	2.0	0	-5.4
Brandin Cooks	1	14	14.0	0	0.7
Rico Dowdle	3	12	4.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
CeeDee Lamb	7	7	117	0	23%	10.8
Tony Pollard	6	7	80	0	23%	4.5
Brandin Cooks	4	4	36	1	13%	3.2
Michael Gallup	3	10	24	0	33%	-4.0
Jake Ferguson	1	1	15	0	3%	1.7
Sean McKeon	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Markquese Bell	5	2	0.0	0	1
Jayron Kearse	5	2	0.0	0	0
Damone Clark	5	1	0.0	0	0
Donovan Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Osa Odighizuwa	2	2	0.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0.0	1	1
Micah Parsons	1	1	1.0	0	0
Daron Bland	2	0	0.0	0	2
Demarcus Lawrence	2	0	0.0	0	1

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	22/37	227	2	1	1	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	14	27	1.9	-5.3
Justin Herbert	6	20	3.3	0.3
Gerald Everett	1	2	2.0	-0.6
Joshua Kelley	1	2	2.0	-0.4
Isaiah Spiller	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	7	11	85	1	30%	5.4
Josh Palmer	4	7	60	0	19%	-1.5
Austin Ekeler	4	6	35	0	16%	0.1
Donald Parham	2	3	19	0	8%	-0.3
Gerald Everett	3	5	16	1	14%	0.4
Justin Herbert	1	1	10	0	3%	1.8
Joshua Kelley	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.2
Quentin Johnston	0	2	0	0	5%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Kendricks	5	2	0.0	0
Kenneth Murray	5	1	0.0	0
Asante Samuel	5	1	0.0	0
Dean Marlowe	4	1	0.0	0
Michael Davis	4	0	0.0	2
Derwin James	1	2	0.0	0
Sebastian Joseph	3	0	1.0	0
Khalil Mack	1	2	1.0	0
Nicholas Williams	2	1	1.0	0
Ja'Sir Taylor	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -1.5
Closing total: 49.5
DAL moneyline: -130
LAC moneyline: +110

Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: DAL 8 days · LAC 15 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Brandon Staley