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Dallas Cowboys 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 17. Final.
Cowboys -1.5 ✓U 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Dallas Cowboys 20, Chargers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 15:00, 3rd and 11, on Tony Pollard — 19.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 15:00 · 3rd and 11
Tony Pollard
Cowboys
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards (26-A.Samuel).
Dome
Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Dallas Cowboys 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 15:00, Cowboys +19.7% win probability on one snap.
19.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChargersQ4 8:55(8:55) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Tolbert MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at DAL 20.
18.0pts
Dak PrescottCowboysQ4 5:52(5:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 26 for 9 yards (6-E.Kendricks). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 26. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Illegal Contact, declined.
15.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 1 giveaway.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.01 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Cowboys165 of 175 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards (26-A.Samuel).
Swing −19.7 for ChargersExpected points −5.68 for ChargersThe model had Chargers 13 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 15:00LAC +20% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to LAC 16 for 60 yards (26-A.Samuel).
4th · 8:55LAC +18% win prob(8:55) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris. Los Angeles Chargers challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to DAL 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Tolbert MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LAC-57-A.Ogbongbemiga at DAL 20.
4th · 5:52LAC +15% win prob(5:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end ran ob at DAL 26 for 9 yards (6-E.Kendricks). PENALTY on LAC-36-J.Taylor, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 26. Penalty on LAC-43-M.Davis, Illegal Contact, declined.
3rd · 7:47DAL +13% win prob(7:47) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 5-J.Palmer (26-D.Bland).
4th · 7:15LAC +13% win prob(7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:29DAL +13% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon Aubrey's 39-yard field goal with 2:23 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:23Brandon Aubrey·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+320–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryChargers
Cowboys7–1Chargers
344Total yards272
5.8Yards per play4.5
41%Success rate34%
38%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays4
17First downs14
5Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.11Chargers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Cowboys: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.01Chargers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.26Cowboys: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.35Chargers: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 59 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Chargers’s 61 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Chargers 4.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chargers15.8%
right on their number · +2.3 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was LAC's play-action rate, 25.6% against a season mean of 20.3% — and LAC swings 7.2 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Herbert pass+23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:15) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 7-G.Everett for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:15 · Chargers · 4th & goal at DAL 1 · gained 1 · +2.53 EP · +22.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
36%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.3861%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1265%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0570%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.3220%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Cowboys 26
Cowboys0Chargers6
Cowboys0Chargers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Cowboys 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys6Chargers7
Cowboys7Chargers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Chargers 18
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Chargers 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 2 to the Chargers 16
2nd quarter48 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Cowboys 42
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Cowboys 18
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 40
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, one linebacker and four backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Chargers 13
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 13 to midfield
Cowboys10Chargers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Chargers 14
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Cowboys 7
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Cowboys10Chargers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 49 to the Cowboys 6
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 26
4th quarter51 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys16Chargers10
Cowboys17Chargers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Chargers 2
Punt9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 39
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Cowboys17Chargers16
Cowboys17Chargers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Cowboys20Chargers17
Field goal18 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Chargers 21
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -1.5
Closing total
49.5
Cowboys moneyline
-130
Chargers moneyline
+110
Cowboys closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 37 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Cowboys 8 days · Chargers 15 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Brandon Staley
(2:29) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to LAC 13 for no gain (20-D.Marlowe, 52-K.Mack).
4th · 1:29DAL +13% win prob(1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 1-Q.Johnston INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Gilmore [33-D.Clark] at LAC 33. 21-S.Gilmore to LAC 33 for no gain (1-Q.Johnston).
4th · 6:39DAL +13% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 17 for -8 yards (95-N.Williams).
