2023 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 12, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Denver Broncos

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -10.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Kansas City Chiefs 19–8. Biggest swing: Q1 9:32, DEN +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:32DEN 0 — KC 0DEN ball · 4th & 3KC 79%

(9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:32DEN +8% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).
Q2 · 8:10DEN +6% win prob(8:10) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle to DEN 5 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell).
Q1 · 5:00DEN +5% win prob(5:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 32-N.Bolton at KC 42. 32-N.Bolton to KC 43 for 1 yard (10-J.Jeudy).
Q1 · 12:20KC +4% win prob(12:20) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right tackle to KC 45 for 10 yards (6-B.Cook).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 5:44KC Field goal
(5:44) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — KC 3
Q2 · 3:09KC Touchdown
(3:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-K.Toney for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 0 — KC 10
Q2 · 0:04KC Field goal
(:04) 7-H.Butker 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — KC 13
Q3 · 9:19KC Field goal
(9:19) 7-H.Butker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 0 — KC 16
Q4 · 6:11DEN Touchdown
(6:11) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 14-C.Sutton (35-Ja.Watson). Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: DEN 8 — KC 16
Q4 · 2:00KC Field goal
(2:00) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: DEN 8 — KC 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chiefs
Offensive plays	50	67
Total yards	199	391 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32	-0.03 (edge)
Success rate	42%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	58%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.65	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	4/10 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.32.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

30/40, 306 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.6 expected points added · +6.2% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

13/22, 95 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-18.3 expected points added · -11.7% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

16 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

10 att, 52 yds, 0 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

9/9 for 124 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

4/4 for 72 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	10	34	5:36	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 41	9	42	3:44	Field goal +3
3	DEN	DEN 25	3	18	0:47	Interception
4	KC	KC 43	4	42	1:58	Interception
5	DEN	DEN 7	7	19	3:35	Punt
6	KC	KC 43	11	57	6:16	Turnover on downs
7	DEN	DEN 5	4	5	1:36	Punt
8	KC	KC 38	8	62	3:22	Touchdown +7
9	DEN	DEN 25	5	5	1:17	Punt
10	KC	KC 19	5	5	1:02	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 24	5	13	0:32	Punt
12	KC	KC 39	3	19	0:15	Field goal +3
13	KC	KC 25	13	68	5:44	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 25	7	30	3:38	Interception
15	KC	KC 36	7	21	4:11	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 5	9	22	3:42	Punt
17	KC	KC 12	7	34	3:23	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 39	7	52	3:15	Touchdown +8
19	KC	KC 25	10	41	4:12	Field goal +3
20	DEN	DEN 25	3	1	0:13	Fumble
21	KC	DEN 25	3	0	1:42	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 68 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	13/22	95	1	2	4	-18.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	10	52	5.2	3.8
Russell Wilson	4	31	7.8	3.7
Jaleel McLaughlin	7	30	4.3	0.3
Michael Burton	2	2	1.0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	4	6	46	1	27%	3.7
Samaje Perine	2	2	16	0	9%	-3.2
Jerry Jeudy	3	5	14	0	23%	-6.0
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	2	12	0	9%	0.3
Adam Trautman	1	2	4	0	9%	-2.0
Greg Dulcich	1	2	3	0	9%	-6.6
Brandon Johnson	0	2	0	0	9%	-2.0
Chris Manhertz	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	9	1	0.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	6	2	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	7	0	0.0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillian	6	0	0.0	0	1
Kareem Jackson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Simmons	5	0	0.0	1	1
Zach Allen	2	2	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Harris	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	3	0	1.0	0	1
Damarri Mathis	1	1	0.0	0	1

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	30/40	306	1	1	2	4.6
Kadarius Toney	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	16	62	3.9	-2.7
Patrick Mahomes	6	31	5.2	0.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	2	7	3.5	-0.8
Noah Gray	1	1	1.0	-2.8
Kadarius Toney	2	-5	-2.5	-3.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	9	9	124	0	23%	8.3
Rashee Rice	4	4	72	0	10%	4.6
Isiah Pacheco	6	6	36	0	15%	2.1
Skyy Moore	2	4	22	0	10%	-3.1
Jerick McKinnon	3	5	20	0	13%	-0.8
Noah Gray	2	2	14	0	5%	-0.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	9	0	3%	1.1
Kadarius Toney	3	6	9	1	15%	-0.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.4
Justin Watson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Willie Gay	4	1	0.0	0	1
L'Jarius Sneed	3	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	4	1	1.0	1	1
Chris Jones	2	2	1.0	0	1
Drue Tranquill	3	0	1.0	0	0
Nick Bolton	2	1	0.0	1	1
George Karlaftis	2	1	0.5	0	2
Trent McDuffie	2	0	0.0	0	0
Bryan Cook	1	1	0.0	0	0
Leo Chenal	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -10.5
Closing total: 47.5
DEN moneyline: +470
KC moneyline: -650

Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 27 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DEN 4 days · KC 4 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.