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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 6 · Thu, Oct 12, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver8
BY 11final margin
ChiefsKansas City19
Denver Broncos 8 at Kansas City Chiefs 19. Final.
Chiefs -10.5 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Kansas City Chiefs 19, Broncos 8 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:32, 4th and 3, on Russell Wilson — 8.2 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:32 · 4th and 3
Russell Wilson
Chiefs
(9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).
Chiefs closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 11.
Kansas City Chiefs 19–8. Biggest swing: Q1 9:32, Chiefs +8.2% win probability on one snap.
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Nick BoltonChiefsQ1 5:00(5:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 32-N.Bolton at KC 42. 32-N.Bolton to KC 43 for 1 yard (10-J.Jeudy).
4.8pts
Noah GrayBroncosQ2 8:10(8:10) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle to DEN 5 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell).
6.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.65 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Broncos at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos148 of 158 plays carry both curves
(9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).
Swing +8.2 for ChiefsExpected points +2.74 for ChiefsThe model had Broncos 23 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:32DEN +8% win prob(9:32) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 41 for -3 yards (20-J.Reid).
2nd · 8:10DEN +6% win prob(8:10) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 83-N.Gray. 83-N.Gray up the middle to DEN 5 for 1 yard (47-J.Jewell).
1st · 5:00DEN +5% win prob(5:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 32-N.Bolton at KC 42. 32-N.Bolton to KC 43 for 1 yard (10-J.Jeudy).
1st · 12:20KC +4% win prob(12:20) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams right tackle to KC 45 for 10 yards (6-B.Cook).
1st · 3:04DEN +3% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 24-S.Moore INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Simmons (0-J.Cooper) [42-N.Bonitto] at DEN 1. 31-J.Simmons to DEN 7 for 6 yards (4-R.Rice).
1st · 4:53KC +3% win prob(4:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at DEN 17 for 40 yards (31-J.Simmons). Penalty on DEN-27-D.Mathis, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 35-yard field goal with 5:44 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:44Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+30–3
2nd3:09Kadarius Toney·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–10
2nd0:04Harrison Butker·60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–13
3rd9:19Harrison Butker·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–16
4th6:11Courtland Sutton·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson · two-point good+88–16
4th2:00Harrison Butker·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+38–19
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos1–7Chiefs
199Total yards391
4.0Yards per play5.8
42%Success rate51%
40%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays6
13First downs20
4Sacks taken2
3Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.65 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Broncos: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.03Chiefs: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.65Broncos: −0.65 expected points added per play
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Broncos: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.47Chiefs: −0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 50 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 67 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 1, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.32.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's play-action rate turned over: 10.0% in week 5 against 27.6% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Chiefs17.2%
right on their number · −1.5 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteKC's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.7%, 7.4 points below their season mean of 16.1% and 1.0 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
69Mike McGlincheyT · Every snap100%52 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
74Ben PowersG · Every snap100%52 snaps
77Quinn MeinerzG · Every snap100%52 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%52 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%52 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Full-time94%49 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation69%36 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation65%34 snaps
84Chris ManhertzTE · Rotational46%24 snaps
38Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Rotational40%21 snaps
33Javonte WilliamsRB · Rotational35%18 snaps
89Brandon JohnsonWR · Rotational31%16 snaps
17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational29%15 snaps
20Michael BurtonFB · Situational23%12 snaps
19Marvin MimsWR · Situational23%12 snaps
80Greg DulcichTE · Situational21%11 snaps
25Samaje PerineRB · Situational17%9 snaps
75Quinn BaileyG · Situational6%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Alex ForsythCElijah GarciaDED.J. JonesNTThomas IncoomOLBFrank ClarkOLBJ.L. SkinnerSSNate AdkinsTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Luke WattenbergCJarrett StidhamQBCameron FlemingT
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%71 snaps
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%71 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%71 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%71 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation69%49 snaps
10Isiah PachecoRB · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation56%40 snaps
83Noah GrayTE · Heavy rotation55%39 snaps
24Skyy MooreWR · Heavy rotation52%37 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Rotational49%35 snaps
19Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational42%30 snaps
84Justin WatsonWR · Rotational39%28 snaps
1Jerick McKinnonRB · Rotational27%19 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Situational20%14 snaps
8Justyn RossWR · Situational14%10 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Situational13%9 snaps
Inactive · 5
Nic JonesCBB.J. ThompsonDENeil FarrellDTMike CaliendoGKeondre CoburnNT
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short left intended for 10-J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by 32-N.Bolton at KC 42. 32-N.Bolton to KC 43 for 1 yard (10-J.Jeudy).
Q1 5:00 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 43 · gained nothing · -4.52 EP · −11.8% win probability
146 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 68 yards from the KC 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
588
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1968%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.4071%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1147%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0840%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-1.0650%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 38
Broncos0Chiefs3
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Broncos 17
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Broncos 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 20
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Broncos 6
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Broncos 10
Broncos0Chiefs9
Broncos0Chiefs10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 38 to the Broncos 3
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 19 to the Chiefs 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 44
Broncos0Chiefs13
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Broncos 42
3rd quarter32 plays
Broncos0Chiefs16
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 28
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Broncos 41
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Broncos 15
4th quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 27
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 31
Broncos6Chiefs16
Broncos8Chiefs16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Chiefs 11
Broncos8Chiefs19
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 23
Fumble lost3 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
