2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

DET -3 ✓U 43.5 ✓Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Detroit Lions 20–6. Biggest swing: Q3 3:27, TB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:27DET 16 — TB 6DET ball · 3rd & 10DET 78%

(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:27TB +13% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:49TB +13% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:12DET +11% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-W.Harris (96-I.Buggs) at TB 12. 25-W.Harris to TB 12 for no gain (83-D.Thompkins).
Q2 · 10:32TB +8% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 10-T.Palmer ran ob at DET 34 for 21 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:13DET Field goal
(8:13) 36-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 3 — TB 0
Q2 · 7:38TB Field goal
(7:38) 4-C.McLaughlin 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: DET 3 — TB 3
Q2 · 2:49DET Touchdown
(2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 10 — TB 3
Q3 · 7:48TB Field goal
(7:48) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: DET 10 — TB 6
Q3 · 3:27DET Touchdown
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DET 17 — TB 6
Q4 · 12:04DET Field goal
(12:04) 36-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: DET 20 — TB 6

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	68	54
Total yards	381 (edge)	251
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.6
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	47% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	71%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.44	-0.25 (edge)
Third downs	9/16 (edge)	2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

30/44, 353 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

17.9 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

19/37, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Rachaad WhiteRB

7 att, 26 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Craig ReynoldsRB

10 att, 15 yds, 0 TD

-4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

12/15 for 124 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/7 for 77 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	7	19	2:03	Punt
2	DET	DET 10	7	39	2:45	Punt
3	TB	TB 8	1	0	0:04	Interception
4	DET	TB 12	4	0	1:59	Field goal +3
5	TB	TB 8	7	15	2:51	Punt
6	DET	DET 25	7	25	3:43	Punt
7	TB	TB 20	7	12	3:10	Punt
8	DET	DET 5	4	8	1:27	Punt
9	TB	TB 42	9	43	4:24	Field goal +3
10	DET	DET 25	10	80	4:55	Touchdown +7
11	TB	TB 23	6	20	1:40	Punt
12	DET	DET 20	5	12	0:59	End of half
13	DET	DET 24	10	42	4:27	Missed field goal
14	TB	TB 42	6	50	2:49	Field goal +3
15	DET	DET 27	11	83	4:25	Touchdown +7
16	TB	TB 23	6	15	2:14	Punt
17	DET	DET 29	9	43	4:05	Field goal +3
18	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:23	Punt
19	DET	DET 16	12	45	6:52	Punt
20	TB	TB 2	13	69	2:52	Turnover on downs
21	DET	DET 29	2	4	0:53	End of game

6 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 83 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	30/44	353	2	0	3	17.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Craig Reynolds	10	15	1.5	-4.7
David Montgomery	6	14	2.3	-1.9
Devine Ozigbo	3	5	1.7	-1.6
Jared Goff	2	3	1.5	1.0
Kalif Raymond	1	3	3.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown	12	15	124	1	37%	8.1
Jameson Williams	2	3	53	1	7%	5.8
Josh Reynolds	3	3	50	0	7%	3.5
Sam LaPorta	4	11	36	0	27%	-2.1
Craig Reynolds	2	2	28	0	5%	2.4
Kalif Raymond	3	3	23	0	7%	2.8
David Montgomery	1	1	19	0	2%	1.1
Devine Ozigbo	1	1	8	0	2%	0.6
Brock Wright	1	1	7	0	2%	0.4
Marvin Jones	1	1	5	0	2%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tracy Walker III	5	1	0.0	0	1
Jack Campbell	2	4	0.0	0	0
Alex Anzalone	3	2	0.0	0	2
Kerby Joseph	4	0	0.0	0	2
Will Harris	1	2	0.0	1	1
Cameron Sutton	2	1	0.0	0	1
Aidan Hutchinson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Benito Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0
Julian Okwara	2	0	1.0	0	1
Derrick Barnes	1	1	0.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	19/37	206	0	1	1	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	7	26	3.7	-0.8
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	6	9	1.5	-3.1
Baker Mayfield	2	6	3.0	-1.3
Deven Thompkins	1	5	5.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin	6	7	77	19%	7.3
Mike Evans	4	10	49	27%	-5.2
Trey Palmer	2	7	47	19%	-0.5
Cade Otton	1	2	15	5%	-1.8
Rachaad White	3	4	12	11%	-2.2
Payne Durham	1	1	8	3%	0.6
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	2	0	5%	-2.2
Deven Thompkins	2	4	-2	11%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	7	3	1.0	1
Vita Vea	4	2	0.0	0
Devin White	2	3	0.0	0
Ryan Neal	2	3	0.0	0
Jamel Dean	2	3	0.0	0
Cam Gill	1	3	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Izien	4	0	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	2	2	0.0	0
Joe Tryon	2	1	1.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3
Closing total: 43.5
DET moneyline: -162
TB moneyline: +136

Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 26 — under by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: DET 7 days · TB 14 days
Coaches: Dan Campbell vs Todd Bowles