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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q3 3:27, 3rd and 10, on Jameson Williams — 13.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Detroit Lions 20–6. Biggest swing: Q3 3:27, Lions +13.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:27 · 3rd and 10
Jameson Williams
Lions
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Lions won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 12 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 27-yard touchdown catch with 2:49 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Amon-Ra St. Brown27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+710–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Lionscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 54 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Buccaneers 2.
Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's pass rate over expected, +13.8 pts, is past their previous high of −0.3 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
DET's early-down pass rate, 63.5%, is past their previous high of 58.0% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 65.0%, is past their previous high of 56.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
40 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
DET's play-action rate turned over: 46.7% in week 5 against 20.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points. · −0.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Lions13.8 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +17.7 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+2.11× that swing) · 68 snaps
Buccaneers1.0 ptsright on their number · +2.7 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 81%
Tendencies room →Lions63.5%leaned — passed early · +10.7 vs their 52.7%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 52 early downs
Buccaneers65.0%leaned — passed early · +10.7 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Lions20.8%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 24.7%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Buccaneers27.5%inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 114%
Fourth Down room →Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.4%.
Buccaneers25.0%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±24.5 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 76%
Tendencies room →Lions25.0%leaned — sat back · −10.4 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · −5.9 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 40%
Tendencies room →Lions10.0%inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.3%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.8 pts, 17.7 points above their season mean of -3.9 pts and 2.1 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
30/44, 353 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
17.9 expected points added · +3.0% completion over expected
Passing · TB
19/37, 206 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -10.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
12/15 for 124 yds, 1 TD
37% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Amon-Ra St. Brown banked 7.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 30.4 | +7.3 | 91% | 94% | 37% | 23% | 12/15, 124 yd, 1 TD |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 22.4 | +5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/44, 353 yd, 2 TD · 2 car, 3 yd |
| Chris GodwinWR · Featured Receiver | 13.7 | +1.9 | 84% | 90% | 19% | 20% | 6/7, 77 yd |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.3 | +6.9 | 23% | 19% | 7% | 25% | 2/3, 53 yd, 1 TD |
| Mike EvansWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.9 | −6.1 | 80% | 85% | 27% | 29% | 4/10, 49 yd |
| Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +3.6 | 81% | 85% | 7% | 11% | 3/3, 50 yd |
| Sam LaPortaTE · Alpha Receiver | 7.6 | −12.5 | 83% | 88% | 27% | 35% | 4/11, 36 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 6.8 | −7.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/37, 206 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 6 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Committee Back | 6.8 | −1.6 | 79% | 88% | 11% | 2% | 7 car, 26 yd · 3/4, 12 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Featured Receiver | 6.7 | −4.5 | 66% | 65% | 19% | 35% | 2/7, 47 yd |
| Craig ReynoldsRB | 6.3 | −1.4 | 61% | 67% | 5% | 0% | 10 car, 15 yd · 2/2, 28 yd |
| Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +0.3 | 21% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/3, 23 yd |
| David MontgomeryRB | 4.3 | −1.3 | 26% | 25% | 2% | 0% | 6 car, 14 yd · 1/1, 19 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −1.1 | 96% | 98% | 5% | 8% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Devine OzigboRB | 2.3 | −0.8 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −4.4 | 25% | 25% | 11% | 6% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/4, -2 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brock WrightTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 61% | 56% | 2% | 1% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Marvin JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.1 | 29% | 29% | 2% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 0.9 | −4.7 | 21% | 13% | 5% | 0% | 6 car, 9 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:27 · Lions · 3rd & 10 at TB 45 · gained 45 · +5.52 EP · +17.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Lions3
Buccaneers0How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Lions3Buccaneers3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Lions9Buccaneers3Lions10Buccaneers3Lions10Buccaneers6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Lions16Buccaneers6Lions17Buccaneers6Lions20Buccaneers6Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Lions at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 30/44 | 353 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +17.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Reynolds | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 | −4.7 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Devine Ozigbo |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12 | 15 | 124 | 1 | 37% | +8.1 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tracy Walker III | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Campbell | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Anzalone |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/37 | 206 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_DET_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 26 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 1.7 |
| 0 |
| −1.6 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| 7% |
| +5.8 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 | 7% | +3.5 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 27% | −2.1 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 5% | +2.4 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 7% | +2.8 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2% | +1.1 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | +0.4 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2% | +0.2 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Kerby Joseph | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will Harris | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Sutton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benito Jones | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Okwara | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derrick Barnes | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 19% | +7.3 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 10 | 49 | 0 | 27% | −5.2 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 7 | 47 | 0 | 19% | −0.5 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | −1.8 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 11% | −2.2 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −2.2 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 11% | −3.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin White | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Gill | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
