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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:58 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit20
BY 14final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay6
Detroit Lions 20 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6. Final.
Lions -3 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Detroit Lions 20, Buccaneers 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:27, 3rd and 10, on Jameson Williams — 13.0 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:27 · 3rd and 10
Jameson Williams
Lions
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Detroit Lions 20–6. Biggest swing: Q3 3:27, Lions +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Will HarrisLionsQ1 10:12(10:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-W.Harris (96-I.Buggs) at TB 12. 25-W.Harris to TB 12 for no gain (83-D.Thompkins).
11.5pts
A.St.LionsQ2 2:49(2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Lions won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Buccaneers at 2 of 12 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Lions157 of 163 plays carry both curves
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.0 for BuccaneersExpected points −5.52 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 10 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:27TB +13% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:49TB +13% win prob(2:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:12DET +11% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 25-W.Harris (96-I.Buggs) at TB 12. 25-W.Harris to TB 12 for no gain (83-D.Thompkins).
2nd · 10:32TB +8% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 10-T.Palmer ran ob at DET 34 for 21 yards.
2nd · 13:32TB +7% win prob(13:32) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to DET 5, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
3rd · 4:22TB +7% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 11-K.Raymond to TB 45 for 12 yards (27-Z.McCollum, 54-L.David).
2nd · 8:31
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 27-yard touchdown catch with 2:49 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:13Riley Patterson·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+33–0
2nd7:38Chase McLaughlin·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+33–3
2nd2:49Amon-Ra St. Brown·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared GoffLead never changed again+710–3
3rd7:48Chase McLaughlin·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+310–6
3rd3:27Jameson Williams·45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+717–6
4th12:04Riley Patterson·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+320–6
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Lions7–1Buccaneers
381Total yards251
5.6Yards per play4.6
47%Success rate35%
56%Third-down rate17%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
6Explosive plays3
18First downs12
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.24Buccaneers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Lions: +0.39 expected points added per play
−0.24Buccaneers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.44Lions: −0.44 expected points added per play
−0.25Buccaneers: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 68 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 54 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Lions 4, Buccaneers 2.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, +13.8 pts, is past their previous high of −0.3 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
DET's play-action rate turned over: 46.7% in week 5 against 20.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.8 pts, 17.7 points above their season mean of -3.9 pts and 2.1 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
74Kayode AwosikaT · Every snap100%70 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%70 snaps
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%70 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%70 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%70 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time91%64 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Full-time83%58 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
0Marvin JonesWR · Rotational29%20 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational26%18 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Situational23%16 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Situational21%15 snaps
33Devine OzigboRB · Situational9%6 snaps
80Antoine GreenWR · Situational6%4 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational6%4 snaps
86Darrell DanielsTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Steven GilmoreCBBrodric MartinDTJonah JacksonGJahmyr GibbsRBBrian BranchSSJames MitchellTE
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 9-J.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 3:27 · Lions · 3rd & 10 at TB 45 · gained 45 · +5.52 EP · +17.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 158. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 75 yards from the DET 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
631
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.4374%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3569%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.0372%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1964%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Lions 49
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Lions3Buccaneers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 9
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 23
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to midfield
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 24
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 5 to the Lions 13
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Lions3Buccaneers3
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Lions 15
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Lions9Buccaneers3
Lions10Buccaneers3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Buccaneers 24
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 40
3rd quarter39 plays
No good10 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Buccaneers 31
Lions10Buccaneers6
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Lions 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Lions16Buccaneers6
Lions17Buccaneers6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 23 to the Buccaneers 38
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 38
4th quarter42 plays
Lions20Buccaneers6
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Buccaneers 18
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Punt14 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Buccaneers 39
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Buccaneers 2 to the Lions 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -3
Closing total
43.5
Lions moneyline
-162
Buccaneers moneyline
+136
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 26 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Lions 7 days · Buccaneers 14 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs Todd Bowles
TB +5% win prob
(8:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Evans. PENALTY on DET-25-W.Harris, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 27 - No Play.
2nd · 6:28TB +5% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to TB 34 for 21 yards (23-R.Neal) [94-C.Kancey].
