2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

JAX -4 ✓O 44 ✓Jaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:17, IND +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:17IND 3 — JAX 7IND ball · 1st & 10JAX 73%

(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen) [41-J.Allen], touched at IND 19, RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Blackson at IND 22.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:17IND +10% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen) [41-J.Allen], touched at IND 19, RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Blackson at IND 22.
Q2 · 4:50IND +7% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 14. 5-A.Cisco to JAX 35 for 21 yards (83-K.Granson).
Q1 · 3:21JAX +6% win prob(3:21) 1-T.Etienne left end to IND 48 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
Q1 · 9:51JAX +5% win prob(9:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 21-Z.Moss to JAX 40 for 3 yards (33-D.Lloyd).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:32IND Field goal
(6:32) 7-M.Gay 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 3 — JAX 0
Q2 · 14:21JAX Touchdown
(14:21) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 3 — JAX 7
Q2 · 14:10JAX Touchdown
(14:10) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 1-T.Etienne. 1-T.Etienne right end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 3 — JAX 14
Q2 · 1:45JAX Touchdown
(1:45) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 3 — JAX 21
Q2 · 0:11IND Field goal
(:11) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: IND 6 — JAX 21
Q3 · 10:49JAX Field goal
(10:49) 10-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: IND 6 — JAX 24
Q3 · 3:57JAX Touchdown
(3:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 85-B.Strange for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 6 — JAX 31
Q4 · 14:19IND Touchdown
(14:19) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 1-J.Downs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 13 — JAX 31
Q4 · 7:20IND Touchdown
(7:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: IND 20 — JAX 31
Q4 · 4:55JAX Field goal
(4:55) 10-B.McManus 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: IND 20 — JAX 34
Q4 · 3:04JAX Field goal
(3:04) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: IND 20 — JAX 37

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jaguars
Offensive plays	75	58
Total yards	354 (edge)	236
Yards per play	4.7 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.21	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	36%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	80%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	-0.07 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.08 (edge)
Third downs	6/17 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Colts outgained Jaguars 354–236 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

33/55, 329 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-11.6 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/30, 181 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.7 expected points added · +6.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

18 att, 55 yds, 2 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

7 att, 21 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

9/14 for 109 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -7.3 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Kylen GransonTE

3/4 for 67 yds, 0 TD

8% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	17	65	8:33	Field goal +3
2	JAX	JAX 25	15	65	7:10	Touchdown +7
3	IND	IND 25	2	-6	0:07	Fumble
4	JAX	IND 22	2	22	0:09	Touchdown +7
5	IND	IND 25	5	3	1:04	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 17	6	25	2:15	Punt
7	IND	IND 16	4	17	2:34	Punt
8	JAX	JAX 34	4	-4	1:24	Punt
9	IND	IND 25	5	45	2:05	Interception
10	JAX	JAX 35	10	65	2:59	Touchdown +7
11	IND	IND 25	10	37	1:34	Field goal +3
12	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:06	End of half
13	JAX	JAX 25	5	0	0:27	Punt
14	IND	IND 24	4	13	2:02	Interception
15	JAX	IND 39	4	14	1:47	Field goal +3
16	IND	IND 25	5	-2	2:11	Punt
17	JAX	JAX 31	10	51	4:42	Touchdown +7
18	IND	IND 25	14	75	4:37	Touchdown +7
19	JAX	JAX 25	4	6	0:50	Interception
20	IND	JAX 40	6	20	2:18	Interception
21	JAX	JAX 20	4	-5	2:24	Punt
22	IND	IND 28	5	72	1:28	Touchdown +7
23	JAX	IND 37	5	6	2:24	Field goal +3
24	IND	IND 25	5	-7	1:31	Turnover on downs
25	JAX	IND 19	4	-9	0:19	Field goal +3
26	IND	IND 25	8	22	1:15	Turnover on downs
27	JAX	IND 47	3	0	1:45	End of game

11 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 75 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	33/55	329	1	3	3	-11.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	7	21	3.0	1	-1.6
Jonathan Taylor	8	19	2.4	0	-1.3
Gardner Minshew	2	4	2.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Pittman	9	14	109	0	27%	-7.3
Kylen Granson	3	4	67	0	8%	1.2
Jonathan Taylor	5	6	46	0	12%	1.1
Zack Moss	6	7	38	0	13%	2.7
Alec Pierce	3	6	25	0	12%	2.6
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	23	0	4%	1.5
Josh Downs	5	8	21	1	15%	2.1
Trey Sermon	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.0
Amari Rodgers	0	2	0	0	4%	-2.0
Andrew Ogletree	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Will Mallory	0	1	0	0	2%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Julius Brents	5	2	0.0	1	2
Zaire Franklin	5	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	1	0.0	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	3	2	0.0	0	0
Julian Blackmon	3	0	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	2	1.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	3	0	1.0	0	0
Taven Bryan	1	1	0.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	1	1	0.0	0	0
Tyquan Lewis	1	1	1.0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	20/30	181	2	1	3	-3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Travis Etienne	18	55	3.1	2	-0.7
D'Ernest Johnson	1	19	19.0	0	1.1
Trevor Lawrence	3	15	5.0	0	1.1
Tank Bigsby	3	2	0.7	0	-1.1
C.J. Beathard	3	-2	-0.7	0	-1.1
Calvin Ridley	1	-4	-4.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	3	6	49	1	21%	-0.2
Evan Engram	7	7	41	0	25%	-1.2
Calvin Ridley	4	8	30	0	29%	-1.8
Travis Etienne	3	3	28	0	11%	2.0
Brenton Strange	2	3	27	1	11%	4.1
Tank Bigsby	1	1	6	0	4%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	5	5	0.0	0	2
Rayshawn Jenkins	3	5	0.0	1	1
Devin Lloyd	6	2	0.0	0	2
Andre Cisco	5	0	0.0	1	1
Josh Hines-Allen	3	1	1.0	0	0
Travon Walker	1	3	0.5	0	0
Montaric Brown	2	2	0.0	0	0
Darious Williams	3	0	0.0	1	2
Tre Herndon	2	1	0.0	0	1
Tyson Campbell	1	2	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -4
Closing total: 44
IND moneyline: +170
JAX moneyline: -205

Jaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 44; the game landed 57 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Shane Steichen vs Doug Pederson

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.