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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis20
BY 17final margin
JaguarsJacksonville37
Indianapolis Colts 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 37. Final.
Jaguars -4 ✓O 44 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Jacksonville Jaguars 37, Colts 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 14:17, 1st and 10, on Gardner Minshew — 10.4 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:17 · 1st and 10
Gardner Minshew
Jaguars
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen) [41-J.Allen], touched at IND 19, RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Blackson at IND 22.
Jaguars closed -4 and covered, winning by 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars 37–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:17, Jaguars +10.4% win probability on one snap.
10.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Travis EtienneJaguarsQ1 3:21(3:21) 1-T.Etienne left end to IND 48 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
5.5pts
Andre CiscoJaguarsQ2 4:50(4:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 14. 5-A.Cisco to JAX 35 for 21 yards (83-K.Granson).
6.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 4 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — -0.08 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.19 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts179 of 189 plays carry both curves
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen) [41-J.Allen], touched at IND 19, RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Blackson at IND 22.
Swing +10.4 for JaguarsExpected points +5.56 for JaguarsThe model had Colts 5 points higher than the market did.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:17IND +10% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen) [41-J.Allen], touched at IND 19, RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Blackson at IND 22.
2nd · 4:50IND +7% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 5-A.Cisco at JAX 14. 5-A.Cisco to JAX 35 for 21 yards (83-K.Granson).
1st · 3:21JAX +6% win prob(3:21) 1-T.Etienne left end to IND 48 for 7 yards (44-Z.Franklin).
1st · 9:51JAX +5% win prob(9:51) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 21-Z.Moss to JAX 40 for 3 yards (33-D.Lloyd).
1st · 2:15IND +5% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby left end to IND 42 for -3 yards (96-T.Bryan, 94-Ty.Lewis).
1st · 11:15JAX +5% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 1-J.Downs to JAX 43 for 9 yards (5-A.Cisco).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Etienne's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 14:21 left in the 2nd put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:32Matt Gay·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
2nd14:21Travis Etienne·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–7
4th4:55Brandon McManus·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+320–34
4th3:04Brandon McManus·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+320–37
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Colts5–2Jaguars
354Total yards236
4.7Yards per play4.1
36%Success rate41%
35%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays3
18First downs13
3Sacks taken3
4Turnovers1
The read
Colts ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.21Colts: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.07Jaguars: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Colts: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.08Jaguars: −0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 75 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 58 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Jaguars 5.
NoteColts outgained Jaguars 354-236 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's early-down pass rate, 78.8%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 67.3% in week 1.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 5.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, +7.4 pts, is past their previous high of +4.2 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 5.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
JAX's play-action rate, 11.4%, is past their previous low of 19.4% in week 4 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 5.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jaguars11.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
NoteIND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.8%, 25.1 points above their season mean of 53.7% and 2.0 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
75Will FriesG · Every snap100%78 snaps
79Bernhard RaimannT · Every snap100%78 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%78 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Every snap100%78 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%78 snaps
10Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
73Blake FreelandT · Every snap100%78 snaps
1Josh DownsWR · Heavy rotation78%61 snaps
14Alec PierceWR · Heavy rotation74%58 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Heavy rotation58%45 snaps
21Zack MossRB · Heavy rotation50%39 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Rotational42%33 snaps
85Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational36%28 snaps
3Amari RodgersWR · Rotational26%20 snaps
86Will MalloryTE · Situational12%9 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Situational10%8 snaps
27Trey SermonRB · Situational9%7 snaps
6Isaiah McKenzieWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Tony BrownCBAdetomiwa AdebaworeDEIke BoettgerGIsaiah LandOLBBraden SmithT
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:17) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 18 for -7 yards (41-J.Allen). FUMBLES (41-J.Allen) [41-J.Allen], touched at IND 19, RECOVERED by JAX-90-A.Blackson at IND 22.
Q2 14:17 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 25 · lost 6 · -5.56 EP · −10.5% win probability
177 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 75 yards from the JAX 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
40%
Yards
587
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.1580%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2267%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1568%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.7267%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.4220%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Colts3Jaguars0
Field goal17 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 10
The period ended15 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Colts 25
2nd quarter60 plays
Colts3Jaguars6
Colts3Jaguars7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 2
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts3Jaguars13
Colts3Jaguars14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 33
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 17 to the Jaguars 42
The period ended6 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 25
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 40
Intercepted5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 30
Colts3Jaguars20
Colts3Jaguars21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 35 to the Colts 29
Colts6Jaguars21
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 38
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 37
Colts6Jaguars24
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 39 to the Colts 30
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 28
Colts6Jaguars30
Colts6Jaguars31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Colts 9
The period ended12 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jaguars 5
4th quarter53 plays
Colts12Jaguars31
Colts13Jaguars31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 2
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jaguars 15
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 21
Colts19Jaguars31
Colts20Jaguars31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Jaguars 3
Colts20Jaguars34
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Colts 28
Turnover on downs5 plays
Colts20Jaguars37
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 12
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 47
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
