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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q4 2:05, 1st and 10, on Byron Murphy — 22.7 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:05 · 1st and 10
Byron Murphy
Vikings
(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 8. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 38 for 30 yards (2-D.Moore). FUMBLES (2-D.Moore), and recovers at MIN 45.
Minnesota Vikings 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 2:05, Vikings +22.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
22.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Vikings at 2 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.19 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.77 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 14 on third down, against Vikings at 2 of 13 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 8. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 38 for 30 yards (2-D.Moore). FUMBLES (2-D.Moore), and recovers at MIN 45.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jordan Addison's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:17 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Jordan Addison10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · kick blocked by R.GreenLead never changed again+612–67 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryBears
Bears ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.77 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 54 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Bears’s 64 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Bears 2.
Bears outgained Vikings 276-226 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's pass rate over expected, −16.1 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
MIN's blitz rate sent, 78.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, is past their previous high of 21.4% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
CHI's blitz rate sent, 42.4%, is past their previous high of 25.8% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
CHI's early-down pass rate, 40.8%, is past their previous low of 47.9% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
CHI's play-action rate turned over: 30.3% in week 5 against 15.6% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings2.3 ptsright on their number · +0.1 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 54 snaps
Bears-16.1 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −11.0 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (−2.03× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 89%
Tendencies room →Vikings52.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 40 early downs
Bears40.8%leaned — ran early · −10.3 vs their 51.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 49%
Tendencies room →Vikings21.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.3 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears15.6%leaned — dropped back clean · −7.6 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.05× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Vikings33.3%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bears33.3%right on their number · −6.6 vs their 39.9%, and they swing ±19.9 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9% to 98%
Tendencies room →Vikings78.1%leaned — sent pressure · +25.6 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears42.4%off script — sent pressure · +21.1 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 29%
Tendencies room →Vikings25.0%off script — got home · +11.7 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+2.21× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears15.2%right on their number · +2.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
MIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.7 points above their season mean of 13.3% and 2.2 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
21/31, 181 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-6.2 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
10/14, 83 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.6 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jordan Addison banked 2.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.8 | +2.3 | 86% | 100% | 17% | 35% | 3/5, 28 yd, 1 TD |
| Alexander MattisonRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.2 | −7.1 | 79% | 70% | 23% | 3% | 18 car, 44 yd · 4/7, 28 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 11.0 | −1.0 | 79% | 94% | 27% | 33% | 6/8, 50 yd |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.1 | −1.8 | 95% | 91% | 33% | 62% | 5/8, 51 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +0.9 | 93% | 100% | 17% | 21% | 4/5, 48 yd |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 8.7 | −1.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 181 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, -5 yd |
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −1.5 | 61% | 53% | 4% | 1% | 15 car, 65 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +2.1 | 79% | 84% | 13% | 8% | 2/3, 48 yd |
| Tyson BagentQB · Starter QB | 5.7 | −2.3 | 47% | — | 0% | — | 10/14, 83 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Justin FieldsQB · Starter QB | 4.9 | −3.1 | 53% | — | 0% | — | 6/10, 58 yd, 1 INT · 8 car, 46 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.0 | 60% | 76% | 13% | 12% | 1 car, -1 yd · 3/4, 20 yd |
| Darrynton EvansRB | 4.4 | −1.6 | 36% | 38% | 4% | 0% | 9 car, 32 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Tyler ScottWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −2.7 | 59% | 56% | 17% | 19% | 2/4, 12 yd |
| Velus JonesRB | 3.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −1.8 | 95% | 81% | 13% | 1% | 2/3, 9 yd |
| Cam AkersRB | 2.5 | +0.4 | 16% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 1 car, 8 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Robert TonyanTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +1.1 | 24% | 25% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 1.1 | +0.2 | 12% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| C.J. HamRB | 0.0 | — | 28% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 8. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 38 for 30 yards (2-D.Moore). FUMBLES (2-D.Moore), and recovers at MIN 45.
Q4 2:05 · Bears · 1st & 10 at MIN 35 · gained nothing · -4.98 EP · −25.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 77 yards from the MIN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Vikings3
Bears0Vikings3Bears3Vikings6Bears3Vikings6Bears6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings12Bears6How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Vikings18Bears6Vikings19Bears6Vikings19Bears12Vikings19Bears13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/31 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −6.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 | −6.3 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 | 27% | −0.8 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 17% | +2.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Camryn Bynum | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danielle Hunter | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Akayleb Evans |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 10/14 | 83 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −16.6 |
| Justin Fields | 6/10 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −8.6 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_MIN_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 32 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 16.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 | 23% | −1.3 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 17% | +1.4 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 13% | −1.4 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.4 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Velus Jones | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Tyson Bagent | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 | 33% | −6.7 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 17% | −2.9 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | +0.4 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Khari Blasingame | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Trent Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sanborn | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Gordon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Yannick Ngakoue | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Walker | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
