2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Soldier Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Chicago Bears

MIN -3 ✓U 44.5 ✓16 mph windVikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Minnesota Vikings 19–13. Biggest swing: Q4 2:05, MIN +23% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:05MIN 19 — CHI 13CHI ball · 1st & 10MIN 75%

(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 8. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 38 for 30 yards (2-D.Moore). FUMBLES (2-D.Moore), and recovers at MIN 45.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:05MIN +23% win prob(2:05) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass deep left intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at MIN 8. 7-B.Murphy to MIN 38 for 30 yards (2-D.Moore). FUMBLES (2-D.Moore), and recovers at MIN 45.
Q3 · 6:58MIN +19% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 43 for -9 yards (44-J.Metellus). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus) [44-J.Metellus], touched at CHI 42, RECOVERED by MIN-58-J.Hicks at CHI 42. 58-J.Hicks for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:23CHI +11% win prob(3:23) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Q2 · 1:59MIN +9% win prob(1:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right intended for 2-D.Moore INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hicks (99-D.Hunter) at MIN 14. 58-J.Hicks to MIN 23 for 9 yards (11-D.Mooney).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:29MIN Field goal
(6:29) 1-G.Joseph 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — CHI 0
Q2 · 13:45CHI Field goal
(13:45) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: MIN 3 — CHI 3
Q2 · 9:02MIN Field goal
(9:02) 1-G.Joseph 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — CHI 3
Q2 · 3:23CHI Field goal
(3:23) 8-C.Santos 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.
Score after this play: MIN 6 — CHI 6
Q2 · 0:17MIN Touchdown
(:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: MIN 12 — CHI 6
Q3 · 6:58MIN Touchdown
(6:58) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent sacked at CHI 43 for -9 yards (44-J.Metellus). FUMBLES (44-J.Metellus) [44-J.Metellus], touched at CHI 42, RECOVERED by MIN-58-J.Hicks at CHI 42. 58-J.Hicks for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 19 — CHI 6
Q4 · 7:57CHI Touchdown
(7:57) 17-T.Bagent up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIN 19 — CHI 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Bears
Offensive plays	54	64
Total yards	226	276 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	4.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	41%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	61%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.77
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.05 (edge)
Third downs	2/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Bears outgained Vikings 276–226 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

21/31, 181 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-6.2 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Tyson BagentQB

10/14, 83 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-16.6 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

D'Onta ForemanRB

15 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Justin FieldsQB

8 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

D.J. MooreWR

5/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · -6.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

6/8 for 50 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · -0.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 32	8	3	3:49	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 32	9	28	4:47	Field goal +3
3	CHI	CHI 25	15	75	7:43	Field goal +3
4	MIN	MIN 25	10	42	4:45	Field goal +3
5	CHI	CHI 29	5	4	1:14	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 27	6	12	1:36	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 20	5	45	2:48	Field goal +3
8	MIN	MIN 25	4	8	0:30	Fumble
9	CHI	MIN 35	3	8	1:01	Interception
10	MIN	MIN 23	9	72	1:35	Touchdown +6
11	CHI	CHI 25	2	0	0:12	End of half
12	MIN	MIN 25	5	5	1:24	Punt
13	CHI	CHI 32	6	15	3:47	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 5	4	6	1:42	Punt
15	CHI	CHI 41	3	1	1:23	Defensive touchdown
16	CHI	CHI 10	7	9	2:23	Turnover on downs
17	MIN	MIN 45	6	26	4:08	Missed field goal
18	CHI	CHI 47	4	-2	1:02	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 32	4	2	1:29	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 23	10	77	4:56	Touchdown +7
21	MIN	MIN 25	5	13	1:02	Punt
22	CHI	CHI 24	9	41	4:53	Interception
23	MIN	MIN 45	6	12	1:51	Turnover on downs

6 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 77 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	21/31	181	1	0	2	-6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alexander Mattison	18	44	2.4	-6.3
Cam Akers	1	8	8.0	0.7
Brandon Powell	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0
Kirk Cousins	2	-5	-2.5	2.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	6	8	50	0	27%	-0.8
K.J. Osborn	4	5	48	0	17%	2.5
Alexander Mattison	4	7	28	0	23%	-1.3
Jordan Addison	3	5	28	1	17%	1.4
Brandon Powell	3	4	20	0	13%	-1.4
Cam Akers	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	3	5	0.0	1	1
Camryn Bynum	7	0	0.0	0	0
Danielle Hunter	5	1	2.0	0	1
Akayleb Evans	4	2	0.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	2	3	1.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	3	2	0.0	0	0
Harrison Phillips	3	1	1.0	0	0
Byron Murphy	2	2	0.0	1	3
D.J. Wonnum	3	1	1.0	0	1
Jonathan Bullard	1	2	0.0	0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyson Bagent	10/14	83	0	1	1	-16.6
Justin Fields	6/10	58	0	1	4	-8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Onta Foreman	15	65	4.3	0	2.0
Justin Fields	8	46	5.8	0	2.0
Darrynton Evans	9	32	3.6	0	-2.3
Velus Jones	2	15	7.5	0	-0.5
Tyson Bagent	2	4	2.0	1	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	8	51	33%	-6.7
Darnell Mooney	2	3	48	13%	1.5
Tyler Scott	2	4	12	17%	-2.9
Robert Tonyan	1	1	11	4%	0.5
Cole Kmet	2	3	9	13%	0.2
Velus Jones	1	1	5	4%	0.1
D'Onta Foreman	1	1	2	4%	0.4
Darrynton Evans	1	1	2	4%	-0.6
Khari Blasingame	1	1	1	4%	-0.4
Trent Taylor	0	1	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
T.J. Edwards	6	1	1.0	0
Jack Sanborn	4	3	0.0	0
Jaquan Brisker	3	3	0.5	0
Tremaine Edmunds	2	4	0.0	1
Kyler Gordon	2	2	0.0	0
Tyrique Stevenson	3	1	0.0	1
Yannick Ngakoue	3	0	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	1	2	0.5	0
Justin Jones	1	2	0.0	0
Jaylon Johnson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 44.5
MIN moneyline: -166
CHI moneyline: +140

Vikings closed -3 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 32 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIN 7 days · CHI 10 days
Coaches: Kevin O'Connell vs Matt Eberflus

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.