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Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q2 3:48, 2nd and 5, on Trevon Moehrig — 13.2 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:48 · 2nd and 5
Trevon Moehrig
Raiders
(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Moehrig at LV 9. 25-T.Moehrig to LV 34 for 25 yards (1-D.Parker). LV-25-T.Moehrig was injured during the play.
Las Vegas Raiders 21–17. Biggest swing: Q2 3:48, Raiders +13.2% win probability on one snap.
13.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 7 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Raiders won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Raidersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Moehrig at LV 9. 25-T.Moehrig to LV 34 for 25 yards (1-D.Parker). LV-25-T.Moehrig was injured during the play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Daniel Carlson's 25-yard field goal with 6:57 left in the 1st put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Daniel Carlson25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.BobenmoyerLead never changed again+30–3B.Nichols andsafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+217–219 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryRaiders
Raiders ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 55 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Raiders’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 2, Raiders 7.
Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's pass rate over expected, −11.7 pts, is past their previous low of −2.7 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
LV's early-down pass rate, 42.6%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots3.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 55 snaps
Raiders-11.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.5 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 82%
Tendencies room →Patriots67.4%leaned — passed early · +11.8 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 43 early downs
Raiders42.6%leaned — ran early · −12.0 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 46%
Tendencies room →Patriots13.5%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders12.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.5 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Patriots—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.2%.
Raiders0.0%leaned — took the kick · −26.0 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 58%
Tendencies room →Patriots30.3%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Raiders29.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.5 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 30%
Tendencies room →Patriots9.1%right on their number · −3.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Raiders10.8%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
LV's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.7 pts, 9.5 points below their season mean of -2.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
24/33, 200 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-3.2 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
Passing · LV
14/22, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.1 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected
Receiving · NE
10/11 for 89 yds, 0 TD
35% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Ezekiel Elliott banked 4.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick BourneWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.3 | −0.1 | 93% | 92% | 35% | 13% | 1 car, 4 yd · 10/11, 89 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 18.0 | +1.3 | 65% | 65% | 19% | 1% | 10 car, 46 yd, 1 TD · 5/6, 24 yd |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Featured Receiver | 17.1 | +2.5 | 91% | 94% | 23% | 31% | 5/7, 61 yd, 1 TD |
| Michael MayerTE · Featured Receiver | 12.5 | +2.9 | 81% | 79% | 19% | 19% | 5/6, 75 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 11.9 | +4.3 | 38% | 38% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 34 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 15 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.3 | −11.9 | 81% | 67% | 16% | 4% | 25 car, 77 yd · 2/5, 16 yd |
| Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Starter QB | 8.9 | −2.0 | 61% | — | 0% | — | 14/22, 162 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +2.9 | 31% | 52% | 6% | 18% | 1 car, 4 yd · 2/2, 57 yd |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 5.9 | −6.4 | 95% | — | 0% | — | 24/33, 200 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +0.9 | 60% | 62% | 10% | 9% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −6.2 | 91% | 97% | 16% | 24% | 2/5, 29 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +0.8 | 34% | 24% | 6% | 2% | 2/2, 19 yd |
| Brian HoyerQB | 3.8 | −2.8 | 39% | — | 0% | — | 6/10, 102 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 2.9 | −1.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | +1.1 | 32% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 15 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.8 | 62% | 54% | 10% | 11% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −2.8 | 75% | 78% | 10% | 30% | 1/3, 7 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.8 | 42% | 49% | 6% | 29% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | −0.7 | 13% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Malik CunninghamWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Moehrig at LV 9. 25-T.Moehrig to LV 34 for 25 yards (1-D.Parker). LV-25-T.Moehrig was injured during the play.
Q2 3:48 · Patriots · 2nd & 5 at LV 30 · gained nothing · -5.19 EP · −15.3% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 171 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 158 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Raiders3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots0Raiders9Patriots0Raiders10Patriots3Raiders10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots3Raiders13Patriots9Raiders13Patriots10Raiders13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots10Raiders16Patriots10Raiders19Patriots16Raiders19Patriots17Raiders19How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Patriots17Raiders21Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/33 | 200 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −3.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 | +2.7 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 10 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 35% | +7.6 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +2.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabrill Peppers | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 14/22 | 162 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5.1 |
| Brian Hoyer | 6/10 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.8 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_NE_LV
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 38 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| Mac Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 19% | −1.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −6.5 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 10% | −1.5 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Lawrence Guy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 25 | 77 | 3.1 | 0 | −7.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Mayer | 5 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 19% | +7.8 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 23% | +5.4 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 2 | 57 | 0 | 6% | +4.0 |
| Davante Adams | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 16% | −5.1 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 6% | +1.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 16% | +0.5 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 4 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Hall | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakorian Bennett | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Nichols | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Masterson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
