2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium

New England Patriots

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

LV -3 ✓U 41.5 ✓DomeRaiders closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Las Vegas Raiders 21–17. Biggest swing: Q2 3:48, NE +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 3:48NE 3 — LV 10NE ball · 2nd & 5LV 66%

(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Moehrig at LV 9. 25-T.Moehrig to LV 34 for 25 yards (1-D.Parker). LV-25-T.Moehrig was injured during the play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 3:48NE +13% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 85-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Moehrig at LV 9. 25-T.Moehrig to LV 34 for 25 yards (1-D.Parker). LV-25-T.Moehrig was injured during the play.
Q1 · 3:43NE +12% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 48-Ja.Tavai (5-J.Peppers) at NE 14. 48-Ja.Tavai to NE 14 for no gain (68-A.James). LV-17-D.Adams was injured during the play.
Q3 · 7:39LV +11% win prob(7:39) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer pass deep middle to 11-T.Tucker to NE 21 for 48 yards (31-Jo.Jones). NE-31-Jo.Jones was injured during the play.
Q4 · 3:43LV +10% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne to LV 3 for 4 yards (37-T.Hall, 41-R.Spillane). PENALTY on LV-98-M.Crosby, Roughing the Passer, 2 yards, enforced at LV 3.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:57LV Field goal
(6:57) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: NE 0 — LV 3
Q2 · 12:27LV Touchdown
(12:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 16-J.Meyers for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 0 — LV 10
Q2 · 8:42NE Field goal
(8:42) 37-C.Ryland 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 3 — LV 10
Q2 · 0:14LV Field goal
(:14) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: NE 3 — LV 13
Q3 · 8:59NE Touchdown
(8:59) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 15-E.Elliott. 15-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — LV 13
Q3 · 3:58LV Field goal
(3:58) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: NE 10 — LV 16
Q4 · 13:06LV Field goal
(13:06) 2-D.Carlson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Score after this play: NE 10 — LV 19
Q4 · 3:36NE Touchdown
(3:36) 38-R.Stevenson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — LV 19
Q4 · 1:52LV Safety
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (sack split by 91-B.Nichols and 98-M.Crosby).
Score after this play: NE 17 — LV 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Raiders
Offensive plays	55	62
Total yards	260	351 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	5.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.01 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	67%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	6/12	8/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Raiders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

24/33, 200 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.2 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Jimmy GaroppoloQB

14/22, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.1 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LV

Josh JacobsRB

25 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

10 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

10/11 for 89 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Michael MayerTE

5/6 for 75 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LV	LV 25	17	62	8:06	Field goal +3
2	NE	NE 25	5	6	0:56	Punt
3	LV	LV 40	5	27	2:24	Interception
4	NE	NE 14	4	-8	1:58	Punt
5	LV	LV 41	9	59	4:14	Touchdown +7
6	NE	NE 19	10	67	3:44	Field goal +3
7	LV	LV 25	5	5	1:40	Punt
8	NE	NE 27	8	43	3:22	Interception
9	LV	LV 34	10	57	3:26	Field goal +3
10	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:10	End of half
11	NE	NE 25	12	70	6:04	Touchdown +7
12	LV	LV 25	11	73	5:01	Field goal +3
13	NE	NE 25	5	2	1:28	Punt
14	LV	LV 35	9	59	4:24	Field goal +3
15	NE	NE 25	19	78	9:30	Touchdown +7
16	LV	LV 25	7	9	1:10	Punt
17	NE	NE 9	3	2	0:36	Safety
18	LV	NE 36	4	0	1:47	End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 78 scrimmage yards over 19 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	24/33	200	0	1	3	-3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	10	46	4.6	1	0.8
Ezekiel Elliott	7	34	4.9	1	2.7
Kendrick Bourne	1	4	4.0	0	0.6
Mac Jones	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	10	11	89	35%	7.6
Mike Gesicki	3	3	28	10%	2.7
Rhamondre Stevenson	5	6	24	19%	-1.9
Ezekiel Elliott	1	1	15	3%	1.1
Pharaoh Brown	1	1	15	3%	1.0
Ty Montgomery	1	1	9	3%	0.9
Hunter Henry	1	3	7	10%	-6.5
DeVante Parker	1	3	7	10%	-1.5
Tyquan Thornton	1	2	6	6%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jabrill Peppers	7	0	0	2
Jahlani Tavai	3	2	1	1
Anfernee Jennings	4	1	0	0
Kyle Dugger	2	3	0	0
Jonathan Jones	5	0	0	0
Christian Barmore	3	1	0	2
Lawrence Guy	3	1	0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	3	0	0
J.C. Jackson	2	2	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	1	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jimmy Garoppolo	14/22	162	1	1	0	5.1
Brian Hoyer	6/10	102	0	0	0	4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	25	77	3.1	-7.9
Jimmy Garoppolo	2	4	2.0	0.1
Tre Tucker	1	4	4.0	0.1
Zamir White	2	2	1.0	-1.5
Brian Hoyer	3	-3	-1.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Mayer	5	6	75	0	19%	7.8
Jakobi Meyers	5	7	61	1	23%	5.4
Tre Tucker	2	2	57	0	6%	4.0
Davante Adams	2	5	29	0	16%	-5.1
Austin Hooper	2	2	19	0	6%	1.9
Josh Jacobs	2	5	16	0	16%	0.5
Zamir White	2	2	7	0	6%	-0.5
DeAndre Carter	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Ameer Abdullah	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Robert Spillane	3	4	0.0	0	0
Maxx Crosby	4	3	0.5	0	1
Divine Deablo	3	4	0.0	0	0
Amik Robertson	4	0	1.0	0	0
Tyler Hall	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jakorian Bennett	3	0	0.0	0	0
Bilal Nichols	1	2	0.5	0	0
Marcus Epps	0	2	0.0	0	1
Trevon Moehrig	2	0	0.0	1	1
Luke Masterson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -3
Closing total: 41.5
NE moneyline: +124
LV moneyline: -148

Raiders closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 38 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: NE 7 days · LV 6 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Josh McDaniels