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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Saints174 of 183 plays carry both curves
(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).
Swing +17.0 for TexansExpected points +3.08 for TexansThe model had Texans 4 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 4:37NO +17% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).
1st · 0:18HOU +12% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:07HOU +11% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed to HOU 35 for 51 yards (21-S.Nelson).
4th · 11:10NO +10% win prob(11:10) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
4th · 0:53HOU +9% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 12-C.Olave to HOU 24 for 9 yards (21-S.Nelson).
4th · 0:21NO +9% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Thomas (21-S.Nelson) [53-B.Cashman]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [53-B.Cashman] at HOU 2. 21-S.Nelson pushed ob at HOU 2 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 24-yard field goal with 10:30 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
2nd0:22Blake Grupe·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+310–17
3rd7:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap J.Weeks+310–20
3rd2:21Blake Grupe·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+313–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryTexans
Saints5–2Texans
430Total yards298
5.5Yards per play5.1
50%Success rate42%
40%Third-down rate36%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays8
22First downs16
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 5–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Saints: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.04Texans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.03Texans: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Saints: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.04Texans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 78 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Texans’s 59 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Texans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 39.2% in week 5 against 63.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Texans13.2%
right on their number · −4.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.49× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
NoteHOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 34.0%, 14.7 points above their season mean of 19.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass−15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).
Q4 4:37 · Saints · 4th & 4 at HOU 15 · gained 2 · -3.08 EP · −15.0% win probability
172 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
727
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR33-0.1791%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.1360%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1356%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.1741%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0138%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.7057%
Texans2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 48
No good9 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Texans 34
Intercepted2 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 44
Saints0Texans6
Saints0Texans7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Saints 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Saints6Texans7
Saints7Texans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Texans 34
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Saints7Texans10
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 32 to the Saints 5
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Saints 23
Saints7Texans16
Saints7Texans17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Saints 2
Saints10Texans17
Field goal16 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Texans 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 39
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 30
Punt4 plays
Saints10Texans20
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Saints 1
Saints13Texans20
Field goal12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Texans 14
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Saints 31 to midfield
4th quarter51 plays
No good9 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Texans 11
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 47
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Saints 14 to the Texans 14
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 13 to midfield
Intercepted15 plays, from the Saints 15 to the Texans 24
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
