2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · NRG Stadium

New Orleans Saints

Houston TexansWinner

NO -2 upsetU 42.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 4:37, NO +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 4:37NO 13 — HOU 20NO ball · 4th & 4HOU 73%

(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 4:37NO +17% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).
Q1 · 0:18HOU +12% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:07HOU +11% win prob(8:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed to HOU 35 for 51 yards (21-S.Nelson).
Q4 · 11:10NO +10% win prob(11:10) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:45HOU Touchdown
(3:45) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — HOU 7
Q1 · 0:18NO Touchdown
(:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — HOU 7
Q2 · 10:30HOU Field goal
(10:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: NO 7 — HOU 10
Q2 · 2:59HOU Touchdown
(2:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 2-R.Woods for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — HOU 17
Q2 · 0:22NO Field goal
(:22) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 10 — HOU 17
Q3 · 7:03HOU Field goal
(7:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.
Score after this play: NO 10 — HOU 20
Q3 · 2:21NO Field goal
(2:21) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 13 — HOU 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Texans
Offensive plays	78	59
Total yards	430 (edge)	298
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	50% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	68%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10 (edge)	-0.03
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	-0.04 (edge)
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

32/50, 353 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.2 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

13/27, 199 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.3 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

19 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

12 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

7/10 for 96 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

2/6 for 85 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 9	10	39	3:47	Punt
2	NO	NO 20	9	46	4:33	Missed field goal
3	HOU	HOU 42	2	2	0:44	Interception
4	HOU	HOU 41	7	59	2:15	Touchdown +7
5	NO	NO 25	11	75	3:28	Touchdown +7
6	HOU	HOU 25	12	70	4:45	Field goal +3
7	NO	NO 19	5	4	1:21	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 35	11	65	6:11	Touchdown +7
9	NO	NO 25	14	61	2:38	Field goal +3
10	HOU	HOU 25	2	3	0:18	End of half
11	NO	NO 25	7	15	3:28	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 29	4	1	1:37	Punt
13	NO	NO 7	4	0	0:45	Punt
14	HOU	50	6	32	2:09	Field goal +3
15	NO	NO 25	11	58	4:44	Field goal +3
16	HOU	HOU 25	5	-2	1:35	Punt
17	NO	NO 31	11	58	4:35	Missed field goal
18	HOU	HOU 20	6	22	3:00	Punt
19	NO	NO 14	7	73	3:36	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 13	6	6	1:50	Punt
21	NO	NO 15	12	40	2:25	Interception
22	HOU	HOU 2	2	1	0:16	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 75 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	32/50	353	1	1	2	5.2
Taysom Hill	1/1	4	0	0	0	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alvin Kamara	19	68	3.6	-2.3
Rashid Shaheed	2	18	9.0	1.0
Derek Carr	1	2	2.0	0.4
Taysom Hill	1	2	2.0	-0.5
Kendre Miller	2	-1	-0.5	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Olave	7	10	96	0	22%	6.5
Rashid Shaheed	2	6	85	1	13%	5.6
Taysom Hill	7	8	49	0	17%	1.5
Michael Thomas	5	8	45	0	17%	-0.1
Alvin Kamara	7	8	36	0	17%	-5.4
Foster Moreau	4	4	33	0	9%	2.2
Kendre Miller	1	2	13	0	4%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	4	3	1.0	0	1
Carl Granderson	3	3	1.0	0	0
Pete Werner	4	2	0.0	0	0
Zack Baun	2	3	0.0	1	1
Marshon Lattimore	5	0	0.0	0	0
Khalen Saunders	2	2	0.0	0	0
Alontae Taylor	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	2	1	0.0	0	1
Marcus Maye	1	2	0.0	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	2	0	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	13/27	199	2	1	2	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	12	58	4.8	0.5
Dameon Pierce	13	34	2.6	-3.4
Xavier Hutchinson	2	15	7.5	0.9
Mike Boone	1	11	11.0	0.6
C.J. Stroud	3	2	0.7	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	4	6	80	0	25%	3.6
Dalton Schultz	4	7	61	1	29%	4.8
Noah Brown	2	5	37	0	21%	-2.6
Brevin Jordan	1	1	11	0	4%	0.7
Robert Woods	1	3	6	1	13%	0.8
Devin Singletary	1	2	4	0	8%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	7	6	0.0	0	2
Jimmie Ward	5	2	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	5	1	0.0	1	1
Jalen Pitre	5	0	0.0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	4	1	0.0	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	3	2	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	3	1	1.0	0	0
Maliek Collins	0	4	0.5	0	0
M.J. Stewart	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Greenard	1	2	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2
Closing total: 42.5
NO moneyline: -130
HOU moneyline: +110

Saints closed -2 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 33 — under by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: NO 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs DeMeco Ryans