2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · New Era Field

New York Giants

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -15.5 no coverU 43.5 ✓Bills closed -15.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 14–9. Biggest swing: Q4 0:00, NYG +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:00NYG 9 — BUF 14NYG ball · 1st & 1BUF 57%

(:00) Untimed down. 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller (7-Ta.Johnson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:00NYG +43% win prob(:00) Untimed down. 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller (7-Ta.Johnson).
Q4 · 0:02BUF +14% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller. PENALTY on BUF-43-T.Bernard, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 9 - No Play.
Q4 · 3:55BUF +14% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-M.McFadden].
Q4 · 1:29NYG +13% win prob(1:29) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:22NYG Field goal
(3:22) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NYG 3 — BUF 0
Q2 · 5:12NYG Field goal
(5:12) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NYG 6 — BUF 0
Q4 · 15:00BUF Touchdown
(15:00) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-D.Harty for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-24-D.Belton was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 6 — BUF 7
Q4 · 10:38NYG Field goal
(10:38) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
Score after this play: NYG 9 — BUF 7
Q4 · 3:55BUF Touchdown
(3:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-M.McFadden]. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYG 9 — BUF 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Bills
Offensive plays	71	59
Total yards	317 (edge)	297
Yards per play	4.5	5.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	10/19 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Tyrod TaylorQB

24/36, 200 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-2.1 expected points added · +9.4% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

19/30, 169 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

1.2 expected points added · -2.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

24 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

-8.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

14 att, 71 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

10/16 for 100 yds, 0 TD

55% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Darius SlaytonWR

4/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	5	3	0:57	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 24	4	7	1:51	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 15	6	40	2:52	Fumble
4	NYG	NYG 44	12	41	6:01	Field goal +3
5	BUF	BUF 25	7	38	1:50	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 10	4	-2	1:43	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 31	4	1	1:01	Punt
8	NYG	NYG 15	4	9	2:05	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 35	6	31	2:06	Missed field goal
10	NYG	NYG 42	9	39	4:26	Field goal +3
11	BUF	BUF 25	6	29	2:45	Interception
12	NYG	NYG 41	8	49	2:23	End of half
13	NYG	NYG 17	11	39	5:08	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 11	18	84	9:58	Touchdown +7
15	NYG	NYG 10	10	74	4:19	Field goal +3
16	BUF	BUF 25	14	70	6:47	Touchdown +7
17	NYG	NYG 25	8	13	2:03	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	NYG 37	4	1	0:20	Missed field goal
19	NYG	NYG 43	13	48	1:25	End of game

5 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 84 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	24/36	200	0	0	3	-2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	24	93	3.9	-8.0
Tyrod Taylor	5	24	4.8	-0.3
Matt Breida	4	13	3.3	-0.8
Eric Gray	1	2	2.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Darius Slayton	4	6	69	19%	3.1
Wan'Dale Robinson	8	8	62	26%	6.7
Darren Waller	5	7	43	23%	-1.5
Jalin Hyatt	3	4	21	13%	0.2
Saquon Barkley	4	5	5	16%	-1.8
Matt Breida	0	1	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	7	3	0	2
Micah McFadden	3	4	1	1
Leonard Williams	4	2	0	0
Xavier McKinney	4	1	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	5	0	0	0
Jason Pinnock	2	2	0	0
Dane Belton	2	1	0	0
Darnay Holmes	1	1	0	0
Cordale Flott	2	0	0	0
Jihad Ward	2	0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	19/30	169	2	1	0	1.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Cook	14	71	5.1	1.1
Latavius Murray	12	45	3.8	-0.6
Josh Allen	2	11	5.5	1.9
Damien Harris	1	1	1.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	10	16	100	0	55%	1.5
Gabe Davis	3	4	21	0	14%	-5.0
Dawson Knox	3	6	17	0	21%	-6.0
Quintin Morris	1	1	15	1	3%	2.6
Khalil Shakir	1	1	13	0	3%	1.5
Deonte Harty	1	1	3	1	3%	2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Taron Johnson	7	6	0.0	1
Terrel Bernard	7	3	0.0	0
Christian Benford	8	1	0.0	1
Dorian Williams	5	4	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	2	3	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	3	1	0.0	0
A.J. Epenesa	1	2	1.0	0
Gregory Rousseau	2	1	0.0	0
Kaiir Elam	2	1	0.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -15.5
Closing total: 43.5
NYG moneyline: +750
BUF moneyline: -1200

Bills closed -15.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 23 — under by 20.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: NYG 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Brian Daboll vs Sean McDermott