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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:58 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 25.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 45 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Giants165 of 177 plays carry both curves
(:00) Untimed down. 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller (7-Ta.Johnson).
Swing +42.6 for BillsExpected points +4.07 for BillsThe model had Giants 9 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:00NYG +43% win prob(:00) Untimed down. 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller (7-Ta.Johnson).
4th · 0:02BUF +14% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller. PENALTY on BUF-43-T.Bernard, Defensive Pass Interference, 8 yards, enforced at BUF 9 - No Play.
4th · 3:55BUF +14% win prob(3:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-M.McFadden].
4th · 1:29NYG +13% win prob(1:29) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
2nd · 1:26BUF +11% win prob(1:26) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton pushed ob at BUF 21 for 31 yards (47-C.Benford).
2nd · 0:14NYG +10% win prob(:14) 26-S.Barkley right guard to BUF 1 for no gain (43-T.Bernard; 47-C.Benford).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Quintin Morris's 15-yard touchdown catch with 3:55 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:22Graham Gano·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+33–0
2nd5:12Graham Gano·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+36–0
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Giants: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.06Bills: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Giants: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 71 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bills’s 59 at 54%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Bills 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's play-action rate, 46.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 15.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 34.5% in week 4.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.0% in week 5 against 46.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 24 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bills14.3%
right on their number · −2.9 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.40× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 46.9%, 26.7 points above their season mean of 20.1% and 2.7 times their own 10.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%77 snaps
73Evan NealT · Every snap100%77 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%77 snaps
2Tyrod TaylorQB · Every snap100%77 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%77 snaps
12Darren WallerTE · Full-time92%71 snaps
60Marcus McKethanT · Full-time88%68 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time87%67 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation78%60 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Heavy rotation73%56 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation60%46 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation53%41 snaps
31Matt BreidaRB · Situational23%18 snaps
18Isaiah HodginsWR · Situational23%18 snaps
75Joshua EzeuduG · Situational12%9 snaps
83Lawrence CagerTE · Situational6%5 snaps
20Eric GrayRB · Situational1%1 snap
62Jalen MayfieldG · Situational1%1 snap
3Sterling ShepardWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
John Michael SchmitzCD.J. DavidsonDTGervarrius OwensFSDaniel JonesQBBobby McCainSSMatt PeartTAndrew ThomasT
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tommy DeVitoQB
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%61 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%61 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%61 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%61 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Full-time97%59 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Full-time95%58 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time93%57 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time89%54 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational49%30 snaps
4James CookRB · Rotational49%30 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational39%24 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Rotational36%22 snaps
85Quintin MorrisTE · Rotational30%18 snaps
11Deonte HartyWR · Situational16%10 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Situational13%8 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational8%5 snaps
74Ryan Van DemarkT · Situational5%3 snaps
9Kyle AllenQB · Situational3%2 snaps
22Damien HarrisRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Dane JacksonCBGermain IfediGA.J. KleinOLBDamar HamlinSSAlec AndersonTDalton KincaidTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Taylor pass−52% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:00) Untimed down. 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Waller (7-Ta.Johnson).
Q4 0:00 · Giants · 1st & goal at BUF 1 · gained nothing · -4.07 EP · −51.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 172. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 89 yards from the BUF 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0946%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.2171%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28-0.3736%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 28
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Giants 33
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bills 46
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Giants3Bills0
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Bills 8
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Giants 37
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 14
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 32
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 19
No good6 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Giants 34
Giants6Bills0
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Bills 19
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Giants 46
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
The period ended12 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Bills 1
3rd quarter28 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Bills 41
The period ended17 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Giants 1
4th quarter59 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Giants6Bills6
Giants6Bills7
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants9Bills7
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Bills 11
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Giants9Bills13
Giants9Bills14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Giants 15
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 41
No good6 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 36
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
The period ended18 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Bills 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
