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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 14 at New York Jets 20. Final.
Eagles -6.5 upsetU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
New York Jets 20, Eagles 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 3rd and 9, on Tony Adams — 43.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 3rd and 9
Tony Adams
Jets
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
Eagles closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 20–14. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Jets +43.6% win probability on one snap.
43.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breece HallJetsQ4 1:50(1:50) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.8pts
Jalen HurtsJetsQ4 1:24(1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 6-D.Smith (3-J.Whitehead).
15.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 11 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Eagles163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
Swing +43.6 for JetsExpected points +5.35 for JetsThe model had Jets 6 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00PHI +44% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
4th · 1:24PHI +15% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 6-D.Smith (3-J.Whitehead).
4th · 1:50NYJ +12% win prob(1:50) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:53PHI +11% win prob(13:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 37-Bry.Hall (11-J.Johnson) at NYJ 33. 37-Bry.Hall to NYJ 38 for 5 yards (13-O.Zaccheaus).
4th · 8:17PHI +11% win prob(8:17) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
4th · 2:32NYJ +8% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert to PHI 45 for 11 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Breece Hall's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 1:50 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd2:34Greg Zuerlein·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+314–6
2nd0:02Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+314–9
3rd0:48Greg Zuerlein·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+314–12
4th1:50Breece Hall·8-yd TD run8-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+814–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryJets
Eagles8–1Jets
348Total yards248
5.0Yards per play4.3
42%Success rate38%
50%Third-down rate18%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
22First downs15
2Sacks taken5
4Turnovers0
The read
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.12Eagles: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.14Jets: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Eagles: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Eagles: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 69 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Jets’s 58 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Jets 4.
NoteEagles outgained Jets 348-248 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 6Against their seasonOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +12.1 pts, is past their previous high of +5.4 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, is past their previous high of 66.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
leaned — got home · +5.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Jets6.0%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.1 pts, 13.6 points above their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.8 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
78Iosua OpetaG · Every snap100%70 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%70 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%70 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Every snap99%69 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
63Jack DriscollT · Full-time87%61 snaps
13Olamide ZaccheausWR · Full-time81%57 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation77%54 snaps
0D'Andre SwiftRB · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
14Kenneth GainwellRB · Rotational41%29 snaps
89Jack StollTE · Rotational31%22 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Situational13%9 snaps
35Boston ScottRB · Situational7%5 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Situational7%5 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Darius SlayCBJalen CarterDTMarlon TuipulotuDTTanner McKeeQBRashaad PennyRBSydney BrownSSAlbert OkwuegbunamTE
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−51% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
Q4 2:00 · Eagles · 3rd & 9 at PHI 46 · gained nothing · -5.35 EP · −51.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
39%
Yards
594
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1171%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3776%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1940%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4256%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.0471%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 37
Eagles6Jets0
Eagles7Jets0
Touchdown21 plays, from the Eagles 9 to the Jets 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 48
2nd quarter54 plays
Eagles7Jets3
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Eagles 20
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Jets 46
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Eagles 45 to the Eagles 40
Eagles13Jets3
Eagles14Jets3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Jets 3
Eagles14Jets6
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Eagles 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Jets 47
Eagles14Jets9
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 49 to the Eagles 12
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Jets 44
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Eagles 34
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 7 to the Eagles 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Eagles14Jets12
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Eagles 8
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter46 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Jets 42
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
No good9 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Jets 15
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 43
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 46
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles14Jets18
Eagles14Jets20
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 27
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
