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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · MetLife Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q4 2:00, 3rd and 9, on Tony Adams — 43.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New York Jets 20–14. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Jets +43.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 3rd and 9
Tony Adams
Jets
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
43.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Jets at 2 of 11 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Breece Hall's 8-yard rushing touchdown with 1:50 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryJets
Eagles ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jets, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 69 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Jets’s 58 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Jets 4.
Eagles outgained Jets 348-248 but lost the turnover battle 4-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected, +12.1 pts, is past their previous high of +5.4 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 6.0%, is past their previous low of 10.0% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
PHI's early-down pass rate, 69.8%, is past their previous high of 66.0% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles12.1 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +13.6 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.78× that swing) · 69 snaps
Jets5.3 ptsinside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 97%
Tendencies room →Eagles69.8%leaned — passed early · +13.1 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 53 early downs
Jets66.7%right on their number · +5.9 vs their 60.8%, and they swing ±14.2 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 43%
Tendencies room →Eagles20.0%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Jets22.0%right on their number · +4.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.50× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.2%.
Jets—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 31.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 43%
Tendencies room →Eagles29.3%leaned — sent pressure · +8.0 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Jets18.0%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Eagles19.5%leaned — got home · +5.9 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Jets6.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −11.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
PHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.1 pts, 13.6 points above their season mean of -1.5 pts and 1.8 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
28/45, 280 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
-6.5 expected points added · -3.0% completion over expected
Passing · NYJ
19/33, 186 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.8 expected points added · -9.0% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Breece Hall banked 7.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece HallRB · Committee Back | 20.3 | +7.2 | 66% | 63% | 15% | 0% | 12 car, 39 yd, 1 TD · 5/5, 54 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 20.1 | +5.7 | 96% | 96% | 21% | 42% | 7/9, 131 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 19.9 | −4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/45, 280 yd, 1 TD, 3 INT · 8 car, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 17.8 | −3.5 | 57% | 56% | 23% | 3% | 10 car, 18 yd · 8/10, 40 yd, 1 TD |
| Garrett WilsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.0 | −2.9 | 88% | 90% | 36% | 49% | 8/12, 90 yd |
| Zach WilsonQB · Starter QB | 10.9 | −3.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/33, 186 yd · 4 car, 15 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.4 | −8.3 | 99% | 100% | 26% | 43% | 5/11, 44 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 9.2 | −2.8 | 77% | 76% | 19% | 4% | 5/8, 42 yd |
| Tyler ConklinTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −0.5 | 71% | 78% | 12% | 17% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 2.7 | −1.1 | 41% | 44% | 5% | 4% | 2 car, 13 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 2.6 | −2.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dalvin CookRB | 2.4 | −0.3 | 14% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 12 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Randall CobbWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.8 | 55% | 66% | 9% | 8% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +1.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 35% | 24% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −2.5 | 77% | 78% | 9% | 9% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.8 | 81% | 84% | 5% | 4% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Michael CarterRB | 0.5 | −1.9 | 20% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 1 car, 5 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Irvin CharlesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.4 | 37% | 32% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 88-D.Goedert INTERCEPTED by 22-T.Adams at NYJ 47. 22-T.Adams to PHI 8 for 45 yards (69-L.Dickerson).
Q4 2:00 · Eagles · 3rd & 9 at PHI 46 · gained nothing · -5.35 EP · −51.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 91 yards from the PHI 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles6
Jets0Eagles7Jets0Eagles7Jets3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Eagles13Jets3Eagles14Jets3Eagles14Jets6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Eagles14Jets9How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles14Jets12How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
It should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Eagles14Jets18Eagles14Jets20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Jets, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 28/45 | 280 | 1 | 3 | 2 | −6.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 47 | 5.9 | 1 | +6.3 |
| D'Andre Swift | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 7 | 9 | 131 | 0 | 21% | +13.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 11 | 44 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Morrow | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| James Bradberry |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/33 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 5 | −8.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_PHI_NYJ
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 34 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 13 |
| 6.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.2 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| −8.4 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 19% | −6.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 10 | 40 | 1 | 23% | −3.8 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 2% | +1.8 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −2.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| Haason Reddick | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Edmunds | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Davis | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jobe | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Breece Hall | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 | −0.3 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Dalvin Cook | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 12 | 90 | 0 | 36% | +2.2 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 15% | +1.2 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 12% | −1.6 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 9% | −0.1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Michael Carter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.2 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −0.4 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Williams | 9 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| C.J. Mosley | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Adams | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Whitehead | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bryce Hall | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryce Huff | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
