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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q4 0:41, 4th and 8, on Geno Smith — 44.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Cincinnati Bengals 17–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:41, Bengals +44.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:41 · 4th and 8
Geno Smith
Bengals
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
44.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Bengals won this one — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Seahawks at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 2 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Bengals at 3 of 11 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andrei Iosivas's 3-yard touchdown catch with 12:27 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Andrei Iosivas3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–146 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryBengals
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Bengals’s 52 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Bengals 2.
Seahawks outgained Bengals 384-215 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's pass rate over expected, +21.7 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 8.0 points clear of the next team along.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · +2.1σ from their own normal
CIN's sack or hit rate, 27.1%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
CIN's early-down pass rate, 73.2%, is past their previous high of 70.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks1.3 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 70 snaps
Bengals21.7 ptsoff script — threw more than the situation asked · +16.0 vs their 5.7 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+2.09× that swing) · 52 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 37% to 88%
Tendencies room →Seahawks60.7%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 56 early downs
Bengals73.2%leaned — passed early · +10.1 vs their 63.1%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 45%
Tendencies room →Seahawks22.9%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Bengals10.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks0.0%inside their normal wobble · −25.7 vs their 25.7%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bengals—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 51%
Tendencies room →Seahawks33.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals22.9%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 24.6%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 36%
Tendencies room →Seahawks12.8%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals27.1%leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.7 pts, 16.0 points above their season mean of 5.7 pts and 2.1 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
27/41, 326 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-3.6 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected
Passing · CIN
24/35, 185 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-3.3 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Boyd banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth WalkerRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.9 | −2.4 | 76% | 67% | 8% | 0% | 19 car, 62 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 27 yd |
| Tyler BoydWR · Featured Receiver | 16.8 | +6.5 | 89% | 97% | 20% | 10% | 7/7, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler LockettWR · Featured Receiver | 15.4 | +2.3 | 77% | 81% | 22% | 33% | 6/8, 94 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.0 | −7.2 | 91% | 97% | 37% | 66% | 6/13, 80 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | +0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/35, 185 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 4 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 11.0 | −8.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/41, 326 yd, 2 INT · 4 car, 20 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 10.9 | −5.5 | 78% | 81% | 24% | 43% | 4/9, 69 yd |
| Joe MixonRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.2 | −2.5 | 70% | 62% | 11% | 0% | 12 car, 38 yd · 3/4, 24 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.8 | +0.8 | 72% | 81% | 14% | 11% | 4/5, 48 yd |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +3.8 | 15% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +3.4 | 31% | 31% | 5% | 8% | 2/2, 43 yd |
| Colby ParkinsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −3.1 | 45% | 44% | 14% | 5% | 3/5, 19 yd |
| Tee HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −2.2 | 54% | 56% | 11% | 19% | 2/4, 20 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 3.9 | +0.5 | 24% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 2.3 | −0.8 | 17% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 3 yd |
| Chase BrownRB | 2.2 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 42% | 40% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Irv SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 61% | 64% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.5 | 35% | 33% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 43% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.9 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mitchell WilcoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trenton IrwinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | 36% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
Q4 0:41 · Seahawks · 4th & 8 at CIN 9 · gained nothing · -2.24 EP · −35.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks6
Bengals0Seahawks7Bengals0Seahawks7Bengals6Seahawks7Bengals7Seahawks7Bengals13Seahawks7Bengals14Seahawks10Bengals14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Seahawks13Bengals14How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Seahawks13Bengals17How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 27/41 | 326 | 0 | 2 | 4 | −3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 1 | −1.0 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Zach Charbonnet |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 6 | 8 | 94 | 0 | 22% | +4.3 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 9 | 69 | 0 | 24% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quandre Diggs | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/35 | 185 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_SEA_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 30 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.3 |
| −1.2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 14% | −0.4 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 5% | +5.2 |
| Kenneth Walker | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 8% | +1.6 |
| Colby Parkinson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −3.1 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 3% | −1.6 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| Jamal Adams | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wagner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarran Reed | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Edwards | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariq Woolen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Mixon | 12 | 38 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 13 | 80 | 0 | 37% | −1.2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 7 | 7 | 38 | 1 | 20% | +1.9 |
| Joe Mixon | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 11% | +0.7 |
| Tee Higgins | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 11% | +1.0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Irv Smith | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Wilson | 7 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Hill | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Cam Taylor-Britt | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Sam Hubbard | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Trey Hendrickson | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tycen Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Turner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Hilton | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
