For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Seahawks156 of 167 plays carry both curves
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
Swing +44.6 for BengalsExpected points +2.24 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 6 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:41SEA +45% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
4th · 2:08SEA +25% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CIN 14 for -8 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
4th · 1:19CIN +24% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to CIN 11 for 36 yards (33-N.Scott).
4th · 12:13SEA +21% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 42. 29-C.Taylor-Britt to SEA 34 for 24 yards (9-K.Walker).
4th · 3:27SEA +15% win prob(3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CIN 19 for -12 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
4th · 3:54CIN +15% win prob(3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf to CIN 7 for 9 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Andrei Iosivas's 3-yard touchdown catch with 12:27 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
1st2:25Tyler Boyd·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+77–7
2nd12:27Andrei Iosivas·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe BurrowLead never changed again+77–14
2nd0:48Jason Myers·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+310–14
3rd2:27Jason Myers·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–14
4th11:52Evan McPherson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder B.Robbins · snap C.Adomitis+313–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Seahawkscategory by categoryBengals
Seahawks5–4Bengals
384Total yards215
5.5Yards per play4.1
46%Success rate46%
42%Third-down rate27%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays2
19First downs13
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Seahawks: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.10Bengals: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Seahawks: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Seahawks: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.18Bengals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Bengals’s 52 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Bengals 2.
NoteSeahawks outgained Bengals 384-215 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CIN's pass rate over expected, +21.7 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 8.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +11.2 pts in week 5.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
52 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
CIN's early-down pass rate, 73.2%, is past their previous high of 70.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bengals27.1%
leaned — got home · +10.6 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 21.7 pts, 16.0 points above their season mean of 5.7 pts and 2.1 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%74 snaps
60Phil HaynesG · Every snap100%74 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%74 snaps
74Jake CurhanT · Every snap100%74 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
63Evan BrownC · Every snap100%74 snaps
14DK MetcalfWR · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
9Kenneth WalkerRB · Heavy rotation76%56 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation72%53 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Smith pass−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
Q4 0:41 · Seahawks · 4th & 8 at CIN 9 · gained nothing · -2.24 EP · −35.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
598
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0074%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0374%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4133%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0333%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Seahawks6Bengals0
Seahawks7Bengals0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Bengals 1
Seahawks7Bengals6
Seahawks7Bengals7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Seahawks 8
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 32
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 31
2nd quarter41 plays
Seahawks7Bengals13
Seahawks7Bengals14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 3
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 23 to the Bengals 43
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 13 to the Bengals 33
Seahawks10Bengals14
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Bengals 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Bengals 3
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Bengals 24
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Seahawks13Bengals14
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 35 to the Bengals 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 36
Seahawks13Bengals17
Field goal4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 45
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Bengals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Bengals 9
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -3
Closing total
45.5
Seahawks moneyline
+130
Bengals moneyline
-155
Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 30 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 57°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Seahawks 13 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Zac Taylor
4th · 5:42
CIN +13% win prob
(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 14-D.Metcalf ran ob at CIN 30 for 30 yards (23-D.Hill).
3rd · 4:16CIN +12% win prob(4:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 19-J.Bobo to CIN 11 for 20 yards (23-D.Hill) [94-S.Hubbard]. SEA-19-J.Bobo was injured during the play. PENALTY on CIN-23-D.Hill, Unnecessary Roughness, 6 yards, enforced at CIN 11.
