2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium

Seattle Seahawks

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -3 ✓U 45.5 ✓15 mph windBengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Cincinnati Bengals 17–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:41, SEA +45% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:41SEA 13 — CIN 17SEA ball · 4th & 8CIN 52%

(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:41SEA +45% win prob(:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Parkinson (92-B.Hill) [92-B.Hill].
Q4 · 2:08SEA +25% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CIN 14 for -8 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
Q4 · 1:19CIN +24% win prob(1:19) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to CIN 11 for 36 yards (33-N.Scott).
Q4 · 12:13SEA +21% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 29-C.Taylor-Britt at CIN 42. 29-C.Taylor-Britt to SEA 34 for 24 yards (9-K.Walker).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:40SEA Touchdown
(8:40) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 7 — CIN 0
Q1 · 2:25CIN Touchdown
(2:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [10-U.Nwosu]. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 7 — CIN 7
Q2 · 12:27CIN Touchdown
(12:27) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-33-J.Adams, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 7 — CIN 14
Q2 · 0:48SEA Field goal
(:48) 5-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 10 — CIN 14
Q3 · 2:27SEA Field goal
(2:27) 5-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 13 — CIN 14
Q4 · 11:52CIN Field goal
(11:52) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: SEA 13 — CIN 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Bengals
Offensive plays	70	52
Total yards	384 (edge)	215
Yards per play	5.5 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.07 (edge)	-0.10
Success rate	46%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08 (edge)	-0.18
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Seahawks outgained Bengals 384–215 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Geno SmithQB

27/41, 326 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-3.6 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

24/35, 185 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Kenneth WalkerRB

19 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

12 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

6/8 for 94 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

6/13 for 80 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · -1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SEA	SEA 25	13	73	6:22	Touchdown +7
2	CIN	CIN 31	15	65	6:16	Touchdown +7
3	SEA	SEA 25	5	6	1:40	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 27	8	73	3:22	Touchdown +7
5	SEA	SEA 23	10	53	5:28	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 13	6	20	3:24	Punt
7	SEA	SEA 21	9	42	2:45	Field goal +3
8	CIN	CIN 25	5	4	0:31	Punt
9	SEA	SEA 24	1	-9	0:12	End of half
10	CIN	CIN 25	3	5	0:47	Interception
11	SEA	SEA 31	8	56	4:54	Interception
12	CIN	CIN 3	7	13	3:37	Punt
13	SEA	CIN 43	8	32	3:18	Field goal +3
14	CIN	CIN 25	7	19	3:18	Punt
15	SEA	SEA 16	4	20	2:03	Interception
16	CIN	SEA 34	4	0	0:16	Field goal +3
17	SEA	SEA 25	6	15	2:01	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 14	6	12	3:29	Punt
19	SEA	SEA 36	10	50	4:14	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 14	4	4	0:24	Punt
21	SEA	SEA 40	6	46	1:04	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	CIN 9	1	0	0:35	End of game

6 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 73 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Geno Smith	27/41	326	0	2	4	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenneth Walker	19	62	3.3	1	-1.0
Geno Smith	4	20	5.0	0	0.2
Zach Charbonnet	2	5	2.5	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	6	8	94	22%	4.3
DK Metcalf	4	9	69	24%	-1.2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	4	5	48	14%	-0.4
Jake Bobo	2	2	43	5%	5.2
Kenneth Walker	3	3	27	8%	1.6
Colby Parkinson	3	5	19	14%	-3.1
Zach Charbonnet	2	2	14	5%	0.3
Noah Fant	1	1	9	3%	0.8
Will Dissly	1	1	4	3%	-0.1
DeeJay Dallas	1	1	-1	3%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Quandre Diggs	7	0	0.0	0
Jordyn Brooks	2	3	0.0	0
Devon Witherspoon	4	0	0.0	3
Jamal Adams	4	0	0.0	0
Julian Love	3	1	0.0	0
Bobby Wagner	1	2	0.0	0
Jarran Reed	1	2	1.0	0
Mario Edwards	1	1	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	0	1.0	0
Tariq Woolen	2	0	0.0	1

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	24/35	185	2	1	3	-3.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	12	38	3.2	-2.1
Joe Burrow	2	4	2.0	0.4
Chase Brown	1	4	4.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	6	13	80	0	37%	-1.2
Tyler Boyd	7	7	38	1	20%	1.9
Joe Mixon	3	4	24	0	11%	0.7
Tee Higgins	2	4	20	0	11%	1.0
Chase Brown	1	1	8	0	3%	0.3
Irv Smith	1	2	5	0	6%	-1.4
Drew Sample	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2
Andrei Iosivas	1	1	3	1	3%	0.9
Trayveon Williams	2	2	3	0	6%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	7	3	0.5	0	0
Dax Hill	4	4	0.0	0	2
Cam Taylor-Britt	7	0	0.0	1	3
Sam Hubbard	4	2	1.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	5	0	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	3	2	0.5	0	1
Trey Hendrickson	3	1	1.0	0	0
Tycen Anderson	3	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Turner	3	0	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	2	1	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -3
Closing total: 45.5
SEA moneyline: +130
CIN moneyline: -155

Bengals closed -3 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 30 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: SEA 13 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Pete Carroll vs Zac Taylor

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.