2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · FirstEnergy Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland BrownsWinner

SF -9.5 upset36 push15 mph wind49ers closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:09, SF +54% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:09SF 17 — CLE 19SF ball · 3rd & 7SF 70%

(:09) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on CLE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:09SF +54% win prob(:09) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on CLE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
Q4 · 11:13SF +21% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir (99-J.Kinlaw) at CLE 36. 2-D.Lenoir pushed ob at CLE 8 for 28 yards (71-J.Wills).
Q4 · 2:45CLE +12% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 8-E.Moore. PENALTY on SF-31-T.Gipson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 26 - No Play.
Q4 · 11:04CLE +11% win prob(11:04) 24-J.Mason left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 12:23SF Touchdown
(12:23) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 7 — CLE 0
Q2 · 7:57SF Field goal
(7:57) 4-J.Moody 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: SF 10 — CLE 0
Q2 · 5:43CLE Touchdown
(5:43) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 27-K.Hunt left tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 10 — CLE 7
Q3 · 11:13CLE Field goal
(11:13) 7-D.Hopkins 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: SF 10 — CLE 10
Q3 · 3:03CLE Field goal
(3:03) 7-D.Hopkins 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: SF 10 — CLE 13
Q4 · 11:04SF Touchdown
(11:04) 24-J.Mason left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SF 17 — CLE 13
Q4 · 3:26CLE Field goal
(3:26) 7-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: SF 17 — CLE 16
Q4 · 1:43CLE Field goal
(1:43) 7-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: SF 17 — CLE 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Browns
Offensive plays	53	69
Total yards	216	335 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	30%	33% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	54%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35 (edge)	-0.42
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.07 (edge)
Third downs	3/12 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

P.J. WalkerQB

18/34, 192 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-14.3 expected points added · -11.4% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

12/27, 125 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-10.6 expected points added · -14.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

17 att, 84 yds, 0 TD

-0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

12 att, 47 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Amari CooperWR

4/8 for 108 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

4/10 for 76 yds, 0 TD

42% of team targets · -4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 16	7	54	2:44	Touchdown +7
2	CLE	CLE 25	7	32	3:30	Interception
3	SF	CLE 26	4	-5	1:56	Missed field goal
4	CLE	CLE 44	6	37	2:59	Missed field goal
5	SF	SF 37	4	7	1:43	Punt
6	CLE	CLE 34	7	14	2:46	Punt
7	SF	SF 17	11	71	6:28	Field goal +3
8	CLE	CLE 17	7	83	2:16	Touchdown +7
9	SF	SF 25	11	23	4:02	Punt
10	CLE	CLE 9	6	23	1:15	Punt
11	SF	SF 5	1	0	0:21	End of half
12	CLE	CLE 28	10	48	3:51	Field goal +3
13	SF	SF 34	4	0	1:01	Interception
14	CLE	SF 38	4	-9	1:52	Punt
15	SF	SF 20	4	-12	2:29	Punt
16	CLE	SF 45	6	18	2:48	Field goal +3
17	SF	SF 25	5	15	3:09	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 34	4	9	1:34	Punt
19	SF	SF 18	4	0	0:59	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 28	2	-1	1:13	Interception
21	SF	CLE 8	2	8	0:06	Touchdown +7
22	CLE	CLE 25	15	38	7:37	Field goal +3
23	SF	SF 25	5	10	0:25	Punt
24	CLE	CLE 26	9	43	1:16	Field goal +3
25	SF	SF 25	10	45	1:34	Missed field goal
26	CLE	CLE 16	1	0	0:06	End of game

8 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 83 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	12/27	125	1	1	3	-10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Christian McCaffrey	11	43	3.9	0	-0.4
Jordan Mason	5	27	5.4	1	0.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	23	11.5	0	1.8
Deebo Samuel	2	11	5.5	0	0.0
Brock Purdy	3	7	2.3	0	0.8
Elijah Mitchell	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	4	10	76	0	42%	-4.1
Jauan Jennings	2	4	26	0	17%	2.1
Christian McCaffrey	3	3	9	1	13%	-0.0
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	9	0	4%	0.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	2	4	0	8%	-0.6
George Kittle	1	2	1	0	8%	-1.2
Deebo Samuel	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.9
Ross Dwelley	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Oren Burks	3	4	0	0
Fred Warner	2	4	1	1
Talanoa Hufanga	4	2	0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	4	1	1	1
Javon Hargrave	4	1	0	0
Charvarius Ward	3	1	0	0
Kevin Givens	2	2	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	1	3	0	0
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles	1	2	0	1
Clelin Ferrell	1	2	0	0

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	18/34	192	0	2	2	-14.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	17	84	4.9	0	-0.0
Kareem Hunt	12	47	3.9	1	0.4
Marquise Goodwin	1	20	20.0	0	1.6
Elijah Moore	1	8	8.0	0	0.0
P.J. Walker	3	1	0.3	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	4	8	108	24%	0.7
Kareem Hunt	3	3	24	9%	2.0
David Njoku	3	4	24	12%	0.4
Elijah Moore	4	7	19	21%	-2.9
Jerome Ford	2	2	7	6%	-1.3
David Bell	1	3	6	9%	-4.8
Marquise Goodwin	1	2	4	6%	-1.6
Harrison Bryant	0	1	0	3%	-1.8
Donovan Peoples-Jones	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
Jordan Akins	0	2	0	6%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rodney McLeod	6	1	0.0	0	0
Martin Emerson	6	0	0.0	1	2
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	3	2	1.0	0	1
Juan Thornhill	2	2	0.0	0	0
Grant Delpit	3	1	0.0	0	0
Greg Newsome	3	1	0.0	0	0
Pierre Strong	2	0	0.0	0	0
P.J. Walker	1	0	0.0	0	0
Sione Takitaki	1	0	1.0	0	0
Jordan Elliott	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -9.5
Closing total: 36
SF moneyline: -470
CLE moneyline: +360

49ers closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 36 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 15 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: SF 7 days · CLE 14 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Kevin Stefanski

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.