For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
San Francisco 49ers 17 at Cleveland Browns 19. Final.
49ers -9.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Cleveland Browns 19, 49ers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:09, 3rd and 7, on Jake Moody — 54.4 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:09 · 3rd and 7
Jake Moody
Browns
(:09) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on CLE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
36 push
15.9 mph wind
49ers closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:09, Browns +54.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
54.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Deommodore Lenoir49ersQ4 11:13(11:13) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir (99-J.Kinlaw) at CLE 36. 2-D.Lenoir pushed ob at CLE 8 for 28 yards (71-J.Wills).
21.3pts
P.J. WalkerBrownsQ4 2:45(2:45) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 8-E.Moore. PENALTY on SF-31-T.Gipson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 26 - No Play.
11.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 7 chunk plays, against 49ers at 5 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 33% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on 49ers175 of 187 plays carry both curves
(:09) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on CLE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
Swing +54.4 for BrownsExpected points +2.50 for BrownsThe model had Browns 11 points higher than the market did.play 184
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:09SF +54% win prob(:09) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on CLE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
4th · 11:13SF +21% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short left intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Lenoir (99-J.Kinlaw) at CLE 36. 2-D.Lenoir pushed ob at CLE 8 for 28 yards (71-J.Wills).
4th · 2:45CLE +12% win prob(2:45) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass incomplete short left to 8-E.Moore. PENALTY on SF-31-T.Gipson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 26 - No Play.
4th · 11:04CLE +11% win prob(11:04) 24-J.Mason left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:10SF +11% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker sacked at SF 32 for -11 yards (97-N.Bosa).
4th · 1:27CLE +11% win prob(1:27) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 11-B.Aiyuk to CLE 43 for 25 yards (26-R.McLeod).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 29-yard field goal with 1:43 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th3:26Dustin Hopkins·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.Hughlett+317–16
4th1:43Dustin Hopkins·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+317–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryBrowns
49ers3–6Browns
216Total yards335
4.1Yards per play4.9
30%Success rate33%
25%Third-down rate23%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays7
11First downs16
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Browns ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to 49ers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.1949ers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.20Browns: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.3549ers: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.42Browns: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.0149ers: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.07Browns: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 53 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Browns’s 69 at 54%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Browns 2.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate turned over: 35.2% in week 5 against 56.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Browns23.3%
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -10.1 pts, 7.9 points below their season mean of -2.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 4.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
68Colton McKivitzT · Every snap100%62 snaps
64Jake BrendelC · Every snap100%62 snaps
74Spencer BurfordG · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%62 snaps
13Brock PurdyQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
11Brandon AiyukWR · Full-time98%61 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time98%61 snaps
71Trent WilliamsT · Full-time97%60 snaps
3Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
23Christian McCaffreyRB · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jake Moody−52% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:09) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. PENALTY on CLE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 31.
Q4 0:09 · 49ers · 3rd & 7 at CLE 23 · gained nothing · -2.50 EP · −52.1% win probability
173 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
34%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1747%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR24-0.0142%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.5574%
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7-0.8086%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0783%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.6340%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
49ers6Browns0
49ers7Browns0
Touchdown8 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the Browns 13
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the 49ers 43
No good5 plays
No good7 plays, from the Browns 44 to the 49ers 29
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 37 to the 49ers 44
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 44
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Browns 42 to the Browns 48
49ers10Browns0
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Browns 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
49ers10Browns6
49ers10Browns7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 17 to the 49ers 16
Punt14 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Browns 32
The period ended1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Browns 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
49ers10Browns10
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 28 to the 49ers 24
Intercepted4 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
49ers10Browns13
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 45 to the 49ers 27
The period ended7 plays
4th quarter65 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 43
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted3 plays
49ers16Browns13
49ers17Browns13
Touchdown2 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
49ers17Browns16
Field goal16 plays, from the Browns 25 to the 49ers 21
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
49ers17Browns19
Field goal13 plays, from the Browns 26 to the 49ers 11
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.7 seconds
The period ended13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Browns 23
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -9.5
Closing total
36
49ers moneyline
-470
Browns moneyline
+360
49ers closed -9.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 36 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; windy at 16 mph out of the north-west; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
49ers 7 days · Browns 14 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteWind at 15.9 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 1:31CLE +10% win prob(1:31) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short left to 15-J.Jennings. PENALTY on CLE-23-M.Emerson, Defensive Pass Interference, 7 yards, enforced at SF 25 - No Play.
4th · 6:52CLE +9% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short right to 18-Dav.Bell to SF 34 for 6 yards (7-C.Ward).
