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Washington Commanders 24 at Atlanta Falcons 16. Final.
Falcons -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 6
Washington Commanders 24, Falcons 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:17, 3rd and 7, on Benjamin St-Juste — 18.6 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:17 · 3rd and 7
Benjamin St-Juste
Commanders
(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
U 42 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 24–16. Biggest swing: Q4 5:17, Commanders +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Terry McLaurinCommandersQ1 11:15(11:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at ATL 23 for 22 yards. Penalty on ATL-97-G.Jarrett, Defensive Offside, declined.
9.8pts
Kendall FullerCommandersQ3 13:03(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 15-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at 50. 29-K.Fuller ran ob at ATL 27 for 23 yards (67-D.Dalman; 63-C.Lindstrom).
13.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 10 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Commanders164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
Swing −18.6 for FalconsExpected points −4.87 for FalconsThe model had Commanders 3 points higher than the market did.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:17WAS +19% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
3rd · 13:03WAS +13% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 15-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at 50. 29-K.Fuller ran ob at ATL 27 for 23 yards (67-D.Dalman; 63-C.Lindstrom).
1st · 11:15ATL +10% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at ATL 23 for 22 yards. Penalty on ATL-97-G.Jarrett, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 2:36ATL +9% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 26 for 22 yards (47-K.Hudson).
4th · 6:56ATL +8% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder sacked at WAS 39 for -8 yards (20-J.Martin). FUMBLES (20-J.Martin), recovered by ATL-67-D.Dalman at WAS 37. 67-D.Dalman to WAS 37 for no gain (95-C.Toohill). PENALTY on WAS-57-C.Barton, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31 - No Play.
4th · 0:31WAS +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Gibson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 11:51 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:48Joey Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap C.Cheeseman+33–0
Falcons ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.17Falcons: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.11Falcons: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.03Commanders: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.28Falcons: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 48 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Falcons’s 79 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Falcons 3.
NoteFalcons outgained Commanders 402-195 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's early-down pass rate, 51.4%, is past their previous low of 57.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 3.9-swing turn from week 5.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Falcons31.0%
leaned — got home · +15.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteWAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 16.7% and 1.9 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
78Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%51 snaps
76Samuel CosmiG · Every snap100%51 snaps
77Saahdiq CharlesG · Every snap100%51 snaps
71Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%51 snaps
14Sam HowellQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
63Nick GatesC · Every snap100%51 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time84%43 snaps
1Jahan DotsonWR · Full-time80%41 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Heavy rotation78%40 snaps
4Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation63%32 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Heavy rotation53%27 snaps
87John BatesTE · Rotational39%20 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational39%20 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Situational22%11 snaps
85Cole TurnerTE · Situational18%9 snaps
23Chris RodriguezRB · Situational12%6 snaps
3Byron PringleWR · Situational8%4 snaps
73Trenton ScottT · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Christian HolmesCBK.J. HenryDEChris PaulGCharles LenoTCurtis HodgesTEMitchell TinsleyWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Ridder pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
Q4 5:17 · Falcons · 3rd & goal at WAS 7 · gained nothing · -4.87 EP · −17.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 82 yards from the ATL 11 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
35%
Yards
595
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.0165%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.1783%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.8860%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.1938%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0740%
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.5160%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Commanders3Falcons0
Field goal13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Falcons 19
Commanders3Falcons6
Commanders3Falcons7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 9
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 38
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 29
Commanders9Falcons7
Commanders10Falcons7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 1
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 48
Commanders16Falcons7
Commanders17Falcons7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Falcons 7
Commanders17Falcons10
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Commanders 26
Punt6 plays
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Commanders 13
3rd quarter33 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 45
Commanders23Falcons10
Commanders24Falcons10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 24
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 44
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 37
The period ended10 plays, from the Falcons 19 to the Commanders 17
4th quarter51 plays
Commanders24Falcons16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 2
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 46
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Commanders 2
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Falcons 44
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 44 to the Falcons 42
The period ended8 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Commanders 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -1.5
Closing total
42
Commanders moneyline
+105
Falcons moneyline
-125
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Commanders 10 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Arthur Smith
(:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 7-B.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 52-J.Davis at WAS 26. 52-J.Davis to WAS 26 for no gain (8-K.Pitts).
2nd · 2:00WAS +8% win prob(2:00) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right [95-C.Toohill]. PENALTY on ATL-9-D.Ridder, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at WAS 26.
2nd · 7:33ATL +7% win prob(7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell left tackle to ATL 39 for 4 yards (55-K.Elliss).
