2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Atlanta Falcons

ATL -1.5 upsetU 42 ✓DomeFalcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 24–16. Biggest swing: Q4 5:17, WAS +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:17WAS 24 — ATL 16ATL ball · 3rd & 7WAS 74%

(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:17WAS +19% win prob(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
Q3 · 13:03WAS +13% win prob(13:03) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left intended for 15-V.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 29-K.Fuller at 50. 29-K.Fuller ran ob at ATL 27 for 23 yards (67-D.Dalman; 63-C.Lindstrom).
Q1 · 11:15ATL +10% win prob(11:15) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep right to 17-T.McLaurin ran ob at ATL 23 for 22 yards. Penalty on ATL-97-G.Jarrett, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 · 2:36ATL +9% win prob(2:36) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 7-B.Robinson to WAS 26 for 22 yards (47-K.Hudson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:48WAS Field goal
(8:48) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: WAS 3 — ATL 0
Q1 · 2:51ATL Touchdown
(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 3 — ATL 7
Q2 · 11:51WAS Touchdown
(11:51) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 10 — ATL 7
Q2 · 5:24WAS Touchdown
(5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 4-C.Samuel for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 17 — ATL 7
Q2 · 1:36ATL Field goal
(1:36) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: WAS 17 — ATL 10
Q3 · 12:12WAS Touchdown
(12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 24 — ATL 10
Q4 · 12:43ATL Touchdown
(12:43) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 81-J.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: WAS 24 — ATL 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Falcons
Offensive plays	48	79
Total yards	195	402 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.17
Success rate	35%	38% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03 (edge)	-0.28
Third downs	2/10	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Falcons outgained Commanders 402–195 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

28/47, 307 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

-8.3 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

14/23, 151 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

-0.2 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

13 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

13 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Drake LondonWR

9/12 for 125 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/11 for 81 yds, 0 TD

52% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	13	56	6:15	Field goal +3
2	ATL	ATL 25	13	75	5:59	Touchdown +7
3	WAS	WAS 21	8	23	2:43	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 23	4	6	1:46	Punt
5	WAS	ATL 11	4	11	1:30	Touchdown +7
6	ATL	ATL 25	9	27	3:27	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	WAS 48	8	47	3:02	Touchdown +7
8	ATL	ATL 25	11	62	3:47	Field goal +3
9	WAS	WAS 25	5	-10	0:43	Punt
10	ATL	WAS 48	4	4	0:26	Punt
11	WAS	WAS 4	2	9	0:22	End of half
12	ATL	ATL 25	6	20	2:05	Interception
13	WAS	ATL 27	3	27	0:52	Touchdown +7
14	ATL	ATL 25	8	8	4:07	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 15	6	15	3:25	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 19	13	69	6:53	Touchdown +6
17	WAS	WAS 25	6	21	2:13	Punt
18	ATL	ATL 11	11	70	5:14	Interception
19	WAS	WAS 20	4	-6	1:42	Punt
20	ATL	ATL 42	4	2	1:05	Turnover on downs
21	WAS	ATL 44	4	2	0:24	Punt
22	ATL	ATL 7	7	59	1:34	Interception
23	WAS	WAS 26	1	0	0:26	End of game

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 75 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	14/23	151	3	0	5	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	10	31	3.1	-2.2
Chris Rodriguez	4	23	5.8	0.4
Antonio Gibson	3	15	5.0	-0.1
Sam Howell	4	3	0.8	1.4
Curtis Samuel	1	0	0.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	6	11	81	0	52%	0.6
Curtis Samuel	4	4	42	1	19%	4.9
Brian Robinson	2	2	25	1	10%	2.0
Logan Thomas	1	1	2	0	5%	-0.4
Antonio Gibson	1	1	1	1	5%	0.6
Dyami Brown	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.6
Jahan Dotson	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cody Barton	3	10	0.0	0	0
Kamren Curl	7	3	0.0	0	2
Jamin Davis	4	4	1.0	1	1
Kendall Fuller	7	0	0.0	1	2
Benjamin St-Juste	3	1	0.0	1	2
Jonathan Allen	3	1	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	3	1	0.0	0	0
Percy Butler	1	2	0.0	0	0
Quan Martin	1	2	0.0	0	0
Danny Johnson	1	2	0.0	0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	28/47	307	2	3	3	-8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	13	51	3.9	-2.3
Bijan Robinson	13	37	2.8	-4.6
Desmond Ridder	2	18	9.0	2.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	0	0.0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	9	12	125	0	27%	3.6
Bijan Robinson	5	8	43	0	18%	-5.7
Kyle Pitts	4	6	43	1	14%	2.5
Mack Hollins	3	4	41	0	9%	4.2
Jonnu Smith	4	5	36	1	11%	2.4
MyCole Pruitt	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.2
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	6	0	2%	0.7
Scott Miller	1	2	4	0	5%	-0.7
Tyler Allgeier	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
KhaDarel Hodge	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Van Jefferson	0	2	0	0	5%	-6.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nate Landman	4	3	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	3	2	0.0	0
Richie Grant	3	1	0.0	0
Calais Campbell	3	1	1.0	0
Bud Dupree	1	3	1.5	0
Kaden Elliss	3	0	0.0	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	1	1	0.0	1
Arnold Ebiketie	1	1	1.5	0
Zach Harrison	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -1.5
Closing total: 42
WAS moneyline: +105
ATL moneyline: -125

Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: WAS 10 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Arthur Smith