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polling · 1800s tick · as of 8:35 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 15, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 6
It turned at Q4 5:17, 3rd and 7, on Benjamin St-Juste — 18.6 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Washington Commanders 24–16. Biggest swing: Q4 5:17, Commanders +18.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:17 · 3rd and 7
Benjamin St-Juste
Commanders
(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 10 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 5 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Antonio Gibson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 11:51 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Antonio Gibson1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam HowellLead never changed again+710–7
Jonnu Smith2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Desmond Ridder · two-point no good+624–167 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryFalcons
Falcons ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 48 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Falcons’s 79 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Falcons 3.
Falcons outgained Commanders 402-195 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's play-action rate, 31.0%, is past their previous high of 24.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
ATL's sack or hit rate, 31.0%, is past their previous high of 26.5% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
WAS's early-down pass rate, 51.4%, is past their previous low of 57.7% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders6.2 ptsright on their number · +0.7 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 48 snaps
Falcons-6.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 78 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 91%
Tendencies room →Commanders51.4%leaned — ran early · −13.2 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 37 early downs
Falcons56.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.2 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 60 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Commanders31.0%leaned — faked the run · +14.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Falcons29.4%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 107%
Fourth Down room →Commanders—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
Falcons66.7%leaned — went for it · +32.6 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Commanders15.7%leaned — sat back · −12.8 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Falcons17.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.79× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 39%
Tendencies room →Commanders13.7%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Falcons31.0%leaned — got home · +15.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.73× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
WAS's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 31.0%, 14.4 points above their season mean of 16.7% and 1.9 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ATL
28/47, 307 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
-8.3 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
14/23, 151 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
-0.2 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Sam Howell banked 5.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.5 | +2.4 | 82% | 85% | 27% | 32% | 9/12, 125 yd |
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 18.3 | +5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 151 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 3 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | −6.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 28/47, 307 yd, 2 TD, 3 INT · 2 car, 18 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.3 | +3.0 | 55% | 65% | 14% | 14% | 4/6, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Featured Receiver | 14.2 | +4.9 | 63% | 69% | 19% | 15% | 1 car, 0 yd · 4/4, 42 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.1 | −2.2 | 84% | 93% | 52% | 57% | 6/11, 81 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 13.6 | +3.6 | 54% | 65% | 11% | 12% | 4/5, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 13.6 | +3.5 | 53% | 48% | 10% | 0% | 10 car, 31 yd · 2/2, 25 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Committee Back | 13.0 | −5.7 | 77% | 87% | 18% | 10% | 13 car, 37 yd · 5/8, 43 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 8.6 | +2.8 | 39% | 52% | 5% | 0% | 3 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.3 | 34% | 23% | 9% | 8% | 3/4, 41 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | 5.1 | −5.0 | 28% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 13 car, 51 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Chris RodriguezRB | 2.3 | +0.4 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| MyCole PruittTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −3.1 | 39% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 9 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 1.6 | −0.3 | 12% | 17% | 2% | 1% | 1 car, 0 yd · 1/1, 6 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.4 | 34% | 31% | 5% | 3% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.1 | 78% | 79% | 5% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 35% | 33% | 2% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.3 | 27% | 29% | 5% | 14% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 22% | 21% | 5% | 16% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 80% | 90% | 5% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jamison CrowderWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:17) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 25-B.St-Juste at WAS -5. Touchback.
Q4 5:17 · Falcons · 3rd & goal at WAS 7 · gained nothing · -4.87 EP · −17.1% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 82 yards from the ATL 11 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
Commanders3
Falcons0Commanders3Falcons6Commanders3Falcons7Commanders9Falcons7Commanders10Falcons7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Commanders16Falcons7Commanders17Falcons7Commanders17Falcons10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Commanders23Falcons10Commanders24Falcons10Commanders24Falcons16How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 14/23 | 151 | 3 | 0 | 5 | −0.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Chris Rodriguez | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.4 |
| Antonio Gibson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 11 | 81 | 0 | 52% | +0.6 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Barton | 3 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jamin Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 28/47 | 307 | 2 | 3 | 3 | −8.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_06_WAS_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Falcons closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42; the game landed 40 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 15 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Sam Howell | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +4.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 | 10% | +2.0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.4 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5% | +0.6 |
| Dyami Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Kendall Fuller | 7 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Allen | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daron Payne | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Percy Butler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 37 | 2.8 | 0 | −4.6 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 9 | 12 | 125 | 0 | 27% | +3.6 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 18% | −5.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 6 | 43 | 1 | 14% | +2.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 9% | +4.2 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 | 11% | +2.4 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2% | +0.7 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −6.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jessie Bates | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bud Dupree | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Elliss | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Terrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Harrison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
