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Arizona Cardinals 10 at Seattle Seahawks 20. Final.
Seahawks -9.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Seattle Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:18, 1st and 25, on Joshua Dobbs — 11.2 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:18 · 1st and 25
Joshua Dobbs
Cardinals
(9:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Seattle Seahawks 20–10. Biggest swing: Q2 9:18, Cardinals +11.2% win probability on one snap.
11.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jake BoboSeahawksQ1 11:08(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 19-J.Bobo to SEA 42 for 31 yards (20-Ma.Wilson).
9.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ4 14:08(14:08) 7-G.Smith FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 37, RECOVERED by ARI-92-K.Strong at SEA 34.
8.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.37 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.34 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Cardinals154 of 165 plays carry both curves
(9:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.2 for SeahawksExpected points −3.40 for SeahawksThe model had Cardinals 20 points higher than the market did.play 56
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:18SEA +11% win prob(9:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:08SEA +9% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 19-J.Bobo to SEA 42 for 31 yards (20-Ma.Wilson).
4th · 14:08ARI +9% win prob(14:08) 7-G.Smith FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 37, RECOVERED by ARI-92-K.Strong at SEA 34.
2nd · 7:01SEA +7% win prob(7:01) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 16-T.Lockett to ARI 31 for 15 yards (20-Ma.Wilson).
2nd · 9:06SEA +6% win prob(9:06) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 36 for 12 yards (36-A.Chachere).
4th · 13:21ARI +6% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs Aborted. 72-H.Froholdt FUMBLES at SEA 23, recovered by ARI-9-J.Dobbs at SEA 26. 9-J.Dobbs to SEA 29 for -3 yards (56-J.Brooks, 53-B.Mafe).
1st · 3:30
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Bobo's 18-yard touchdown catch with 4:47 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
3rd7:40Jason Myers·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+310–17
4th2:22Jason Myers·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+310–20
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categorySeahawks
Cardinals1–7Seahawks
249Total yards320
4.0Yards per play5.7
33%Success rate46%
33%Third-down rate54%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
13First downs17
4Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.22Cardinals: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.02Seahawks: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Cardinals: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.37Seahawks: +0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Cardinals: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.32Seahawks: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 63 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 56 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 2, Seahawks 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.22.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 34.9%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 51.4% in week 4.
3.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 6.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 12 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Seahawks17.9%
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteSEA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.9%, 22.8 points below their season mean of 57.6% and 3.0 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
70Paris JohnsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
76Will HernandezG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%66 snaps
63Trystan ColonC · Every snap100%66 snaps
9Joshua DobbsQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
2Marquise BrownWR · Full-time92%61 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time83%55 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Full-time80%53 snaps
4Rondale MooreWR · Heavy rotation67%44 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Heavy rotation64%42 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Rotational38%25 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesT · Rotational36%24 snaps
29Damien WilliamsRB · Situational18%12 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Situational9%6 snaps
83Greg DortchWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Antonio HamiltonCBQwuantrezz KnightCBJalen ThompsonFSElijah WilkinsonGJesse LuketaOLBCarter O'DonnellTZach PascalWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Kei'Trel ClarkCBKeith IsmaelGDennis DaleyT
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%60 snaps
68Damien LewisG · Every snap100%60 snaps
78Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%60 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%60 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
51Olusegun OluwatimiC · Every snap100%60 snaps
9Kenneth WalkerRB · Full-time80%48 snaps
19Jake BoboWR · Heavy rotation75%45 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation70%42 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation63%38 snaps
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Gillikin punts+12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 4 yards (32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at SEA 32. 45-D.Gardeck to SEA 30 for 2 yards (13-C.Thompson).
Q1 3:30 · Cardinals · 4th & 14 at ARI 15 · gained nothing · +6.33 EP · +12.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 152 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
37%
Yards
567
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.2468%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.1063%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0141%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.0827%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.0236%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2056%
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 40 to the Seahawks 45
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Cardinals 41
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Cardinals 18
Cardinals0Seahawks6
Cardinals0Seahawks7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Cardinals 28
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 20
Cardinals3Seahawks7
Field goal4 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 34
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Seahawks 48
Cardinals9Seahawks7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Seahawks 20
Cardinals10Seahawks7
Cardinals10Seahawks13
Cardinals10Seahawks14
Touchdown13 plays
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 27
3rd quarter31 plays
Cardinals10Seahawks17
Field goal15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 18
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 34 to the Cardinals 16
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 1 to the Cardinals 14
4th quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 37
No good5 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Seahawks 15
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Seahawks 28
Punt10 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Seahawks 49
Cardinals10Seahawks20
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 45 to the Cardinals 30
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 46
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -9.5
Closing total
43.5
Cardinals moneyline
+350
Seahawks moneyline
-455
Seahawks closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 30 — under by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
SEA +6% win prob
(3:30) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 4 yards (32-J.Blount). FUMBLES (32-J.Blount), RECOVERED by ARI-45-D.Gardeck at SEA 32. 45-D.Gardeck to SEA 30 for 2 yards (13-C.Thompson).
2nd · 1:16SEA +5% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 2-M.Brown to SEA 35 for 16 yards (27-T.Woolen).
