2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TB -3 upsetU 37.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:46, ATL +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:46ATL 13 — TB 10TB ball · 2nd & 8TB 54%

(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:46ATL +26% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.
Q4 · 6:35ATL +24% win prob(6:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end to TB 1 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
Q4 · 0:04TB +23% win prob(:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 · 2:07TB +21% win prob(2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle ran ob at ATL 35 for 31 yards (1-J.Okudah).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 6:52ATL Touchdown
(6:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 0
Q1 · 3:31TB Touchdown
(3:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 7
Q2 · 11:54ATL Field goal
(11:54) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — TB 7
Q2 · 5:17TB Field goal
(5:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: ATL 10 — TB 10
Q3 · 2:08ATL Field goal
(2:08) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 13 — TB 10
Q4 · 0:49TB Field goal
(:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Score after this play: ATL 13 — TB 13
Q4 · 0:04ATL Field goal
(:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: ATL 16 — TB 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	64	64
Total yards	401 (edge)	330
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.05 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	44% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	44%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.34 (edge)
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	2

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

27/42, 275 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Desmond RidderQB

19/25, 250 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tyler AllgeierRB

21 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

10 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/8 for 82 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris GodwinWR

6/12 for 66 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	11	29	4:21	Turnover on downs
2	ATL	ATL 42	9	58	3:51	Touchdown +7
3	TB	TB 33	9	67	3:24	Touchdown +7
4	ATL	ATL 25	5	6	1:19	Punt
5	TB	TB 34	4	17	2:14	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 33	8	62	3:00	Field goal +3
7	TB	TB 18	16	71	6:37	Field goal +3
8	ATL	ATL 25	13	59	4:57	Fumble
9	TB	TB 23	1	0	0:17	End of half
10	ATL	ATL 30	5	2	1:22	Punt
11	TB	TB 10	5	23	2:00	Fumble
12	ATL	TB 27	7	26	3:38	Fumble
13	TB	TB 3	4	9	2:01	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 37	8	40	3:55	Field goal +3
15	TB	TB 25	8	26	4:27	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 7	10	97	6:07	Turnover on downs
17	TB	TB 20	7	54	2:49	Interception
18	ATL	ATL 15	4	9	1:05	Punt
19	TB	TB 33	10	34	1:51	Field goal +3
20	ATL	ATL 25	6	42	0:45	Field goal +3

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 97 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Desmond Ridder	19/25	250	0	0	1	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyler Allgeier	21	59	2.8	0	-2.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	10	56	5.6	0	-0.7
Desmond Ridder	6	38	6.3	1	-6.7
Bijan Robinson	1	3	3.0	0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Drake London	6	7	54	30%	4.0
Tyler Allgeier	3	3	53	13%	3.1
Kyle Pitts	3	5	47	22%	-0.0
Scott Miller	1	1	46	4%	3.1
Jonnu Smith	3	3	27	13%	2.0
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	19	4%	1.3
Van Jefferson	1	2	5	9%	-1.2
Keith Smith	1	1	-1	4%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nate Landman	5	7	0.0	0	0
Richie Grant	4	3	0.0	1	1
Kaden Elliss	4	1	0.0	0	0
Jeff Okudah	4	1	0.0	0	1
A.J. Terrell	3	2	0.0	0	2
Jessie Bates	4	1	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	1	3	1.0	0	0
Calais Campbell	1	3	1.0	0	0
Dee Alford	1	1	0.0	0	2
Grady Jarrett	1	1	0.0	0	1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	27/42	275	1	1	3	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rachaad White	13	34	2.6	-5.3
Baker Mayfield	3	32	10.7	2.9
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	4	7	1.8	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	6	8	82	1	20%	4.9
Chris Godwin	6	12	66	0	29%	2.2
Rachaad White	6	6	65	0	15%	5.1
Cade Otton	5	6	43	0	15%	-0.3
Deven Thompkins	3	3	14	0	7%	-4.9
Trey Palmer	1	2	5	0	5%	-2.3
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Rakim Jarrett	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.4
Payne Durham	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	7	5	0.0	1
Jamel Dean	8	1	0.0	0
Ryan Neal	5	4	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	3	1.0	1
Antoine Winfield	2	3	0.0	1
Devin White	2	2	0.0	0
Joe Tryon	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Izien	2	1	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	2	1	0.0	0
William Gholston	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3
Closing total: 37.5
ATL moneyline: +124
TB moneyline: -148

Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37.5; the game landed 29 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: ATL 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Arthur Smith vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.