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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 7
It turned at Q4 3:46, 2nd and 8, on Richie Grant — 25.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Atlanta Falcons 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:46, Falcons +25.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:46 · 2nd and 8
Richie Grant
Falcons
(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.
25.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 6 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 1 touchdown on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Younghoe Koo's 51-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Younghoe Koo51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+316–137 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Falconscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 64 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 64 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Buccaneers 3.
Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's blitz rate sent, 14.3%, is past their previous low of 22.2% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.3 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TB's early-down pass rate, 68.6%, is past their previous high of 65.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.6 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
TB's sack or hit rate, 3.6%, is past their previous low of 8.3% in week 6 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
TB's pass rate over expected, +4.9 pts, is past their previous high of +3.2 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Falcons-14.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.1 vs their -9.9 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 64 snaps
Buccaneers4.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +6.6 vs their -1.8 pts, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 25% to 81%
Tendencies room →Falcons44.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 49.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 50 early downs
Buccaneers68.6%leaned — passed early · +14.3 vs their 54.3%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (+1.35× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 60%
Tendencies room →Falcons17.9%inside their normal wobble · −9.8 vs their 27.7%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Buccaneers15.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 104%
Fourth Down room →Falcons0.0%leaned — took the kick · −34.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 76%
Tendencies room →Falcons23.9%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers14.3%leaned — sat back · −24.9 vs their 39.2%, and they swing ±14.3 week to week (−1.75× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Falcons15.2%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers3.6%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
TB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 24.9 points below their season mean of 39.2% and 1.7 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · TB
27/42, 275 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.6 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
19/25, 250 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
7.1 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Mike Evans banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike EvansWR · Featured Receiver | 20.2 | +6.8 | 78% | 78% | 20% | 29% | 6/8, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 16.2 | +0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/42, 275 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 32 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.9 | +1.4 | 75% | 80% | 15% | 1% | 13 car, 34 yd · 6/6, 65 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 14.2 | −1.2 | 51% | 36% | 13% | 10% | 21 car, 59 yd · 3/3, 53 yd |
| Desmond RidderQB · Starter QB | 13.8 | −5.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/25, 250 yd · 6 car, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Chris GodwinWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.6 | −5.6 | 70% | 83% | 29% | 32% | 6/12, 66 yd |
| Drake LondonWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.4 | −0.1 | 85% | 93% | 30% | 19% | 6/7, 54 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.3 | +0.5 | 96% | 93% | 15% | 14% | 5/6, 43 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | +0.1 | 52% | 75% | 22% | 24% | 3/5, 47 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −0.6 | 55% | 68% | 13% | 11% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Cordarrelle PattersonRB | 5.6 | −0.9 | 40% | 39% | 0% | — | 10 car, 56 yd |
| Scott MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | +3.0 | 23% | 14% | 4% | 23% | 1/1, 46 yd |
| KhaDarel HodgeWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | +1.1 | 18% | 21% | 4% | 6% | 1/1, 19 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −1.7 | 26% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 3/3, 14 yd |
| Van JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.5 | 49% | 57% | 9% | 8% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Trey PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −0.7 | 64% | 70% | 5% | 2% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Keith SmithRB | 0.9 | −0.7 | 32% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, -1 yd |
| Ke'Shawn VaughnRB | 0.7 | −2.0 | 25% | 20% | 2% | 1% | 4 car, 7 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Bijan RobinsonRB | 0.3 | −0.3 | 17% | 32% | 0% | — | 1 car, 3 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 35% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 21% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ko KieftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 16% | 9% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Rakim JarrettWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.9 | 29% | 17% | 5% | 21% | 0/2, 0 yd |
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:04 · Falcons · 3rd & 7 at TB 33 · gained nothing · +1.09 EP · +29.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 92 yards from the ATL 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Falcons6
Buccaneers0Falcons7Buccaneers0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons7Buccaneers6Falcons7Buccaneers7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Falcons10Buccaneers7Falcons10Buccaneers10How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
Falcons13Buccaneers10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Falcons13Buccaneers13How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Falcons16Buccaneers13Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Falcons at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 19/25 | 250 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +7.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Desmond Ridder |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 30% | +4.0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Landman | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Richie Grant | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 27/42 | 275 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_07_ATL_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 29 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 6 |
| 38 |
| 6.3 |
| 1 |
| −6.7 |
| Bijan Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| +3.1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 22% | −0.0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 | 4% | +3.1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +2.0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −1.2 |
| Keith Smith | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jeff Okudah | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| A.J. Terrell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jessie Bates | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Onyemata | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calais Campbell | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 13 | 34 | 2.6 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 8 | 82 | 1 | 20% | +4.9 |
| Chris Godwin | 6 | 12 | 66 | 0 | 29% | +2.2 |
| Rachaad White | 6 | 6 | 65 | 0 | 15% | +5.1 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 | 15% | −0.3 |
| Deven Thompkins | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | −4.9 |
| Trey Palmer | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −2.3 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.4 |
| Payne Durham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavonte David | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamel Dean | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Neal | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin White | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Tryon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Izien | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Gholston | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
