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2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta16
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay13
Atlanta Falcons 16 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13. Final.
Buccaneers -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Atlanta Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:46, 2nd and 8, on Richie Grant — 25.9 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:46 · 2nd and 8
Richie Grant
Falcons
(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.
U 37.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:46, Falcons +25.9% win probability on one snap.
25.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Desmond RidderBuccaneersQ4 6:35(6:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end to TB 1 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
24.2pts
Younghoe KooFalconsQ4 0:04(:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
23.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.33 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.05 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Falcons won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 6 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 1 touchdown on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Falcons167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.
Swing −25.9 for BuccaneersExpected points −3.72 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:46ATL +26% win prob(3:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 27-R.Grant at ATL 11. 27-R.Grant ran ob at ATL 15 for 4 yards.
4th · 6:35ATL +24% win prob(6:35) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end to TB 1 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
4th · 0:04TB +23% win prob(:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 2:07TB +21% win prob(2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle ran ob at ATL 35 for 31 yards (1-J.Okudah).
3rd · 8:05ATL +21% win prob(8:05) 9-D.Ridder FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 1, RECOVERED by TB-0-Y.Diaby at TB 3.
4th · 0:40TB +19% win prob(:40) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass deep left to 8-K.Pitts ran ob at TB 36 for 39 yards (23-R.Neal).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 51-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd11:54Younghoe Koo·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+310–7
2nd5:17Chase McLaughlin·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+310–10
3rd2:08Younghoe Koo·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCullough+313–10
4th0:49Chase McLaughlin·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder J.Camarda · snap Z.Triner+313–13
4th0:04Younghoe Koo·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+316–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Falcons8–0Buccaneers
401Total yards330
6.3Yards per play5.2
44%Success rate34%
57%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays6
20First downs16
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Falcons: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.13Buccaneers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.33Falcons: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.05Buccaneers: −0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.34Falcons: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.34Buccaneers: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 64 snaps at a 44% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 64 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 5, Buccaneers 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Buccaneers3.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.26× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteTB's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.3%, 24.9 points below their season mean of 39.2% and 1.7 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
65Matthew BergeronG · Every snap100%65 snaps
63Chris LindstromG · Every snap100%65 snaps
70Jake MatthewsT · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Kaleb McGaryT · Every snap100%65 snaps
9Desmond RidderQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
67Drew DalmanC · Every snap100%65 snaps
5Drake LondonWR · Full-time85%55 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
8Kyle PittsTE · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
25Tyler AllgeierRB · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
15Van JeffersonWR · Rotational49%32 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonRB · Rotational40%26 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Rotational38%25 snaps
18Mack HollinsWR · Rotational35%23 snaps
40Keith SmithFB · Rotational32%21 snaps
16Scott MillerWR · Situational23%15 snaps
12KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational18%12 snaps
7Bijan RobinsonRB · Situational17%11 snaps
43Tucker FiskTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Clark PhillipsCBJoe GazianoDEAlbert HugginsDTEli AnkouDTJovaughn GwynGLogan WoodsideQBJohn FitzPatrickTE
2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Younghoe Koo+30% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:04 · Falcons · 3rd & 7 at TB 33 · gained nothing · +1.09 EP · +29.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 92 yards from the ATL 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.1573%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.2135%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2970%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.1767%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.2110%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2950%
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 41
Falcons6Buccaneers0
Falcons7Buccaneers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Buccaneers 2
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Falcons7Buccaneers6
Falcons7Buccaneers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Falcons 40
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 40
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Falcons10Buccaneers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Buccaneers 5
Falcons10Buccaneers10
Field goal17 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the Falcons 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended17 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 10
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 32
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.7 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Buccaneers 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, five linebackers and two backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 3 to the Buccaneers 12
Falcons13Buccaneers10
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 37 to the Buccaneers 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 49
4th quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to midfield
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Drive ended11 plays, from the Falcons 7 to the Buccaneers 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Falcons 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 24
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Falcons13Buccaneers13
Field goal12 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Falcons 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Falcons16Buccaneers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
