2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo Bills

New England PatriotsWinner

BUF -7.5 upsetO 41 ✓Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 29–25. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, NE +42% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:15BUF 25 — NE 28NE ball · 2nd & 1BUF 55%

(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:15NE +42% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:02BUF +27% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to NE 29 for 9 yards (30-D.Jackson, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at NE 29. 43-T.Bernard to NE 29 for no gain (84-K.Bourne).
Q4 · 2:50NE +19% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to NE 4 for 4 yards (29-J.Jackson).
Q2 · 1:55BUF +13% win prob(1:55) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:05NE Field goal
(10:05) 37-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NE 3
Q1 · 7:05NE Touchdown
(7:05) 15-E.Elliott up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 15-Elliott 70th career rush TD, 34th all-time. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NE 10
Q2 · 14:52BUF Field goal
(14:52) 2-T.Bass 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — NE 10
Q2 · 7:39NE Field goal
(7:39) 37-C.Ryland 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — NE 13
Q3 · 9:57BUF Touchdown
(9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NE 13
Q3 · 4:34NE Field goal
(4:34) 37-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NE 16
Q4 · 7:40NE Touchdown
(7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 84-K.Bourne for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [21-J.Poyer].
Score after this play: BUF 10 — NE 22
Q4 · 5:40BUF Touchdown
(5:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [5-J.Peppers]. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 17 — NE 22
Q4 · 2:00BUF Touchdown
(2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BUF 25 — NE 22
Q4 · 0:15NE Touchdown
(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 25 — NE 29

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	66	56
Total yards	339	364 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	0.16
Success rate	52%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22	0.29 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.03
Third downs	5/12	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	20
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

25/30, 272 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.2 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

27/41, 265 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.6 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

13 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

9 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dalton KincaidTE

8/8 for 75 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Kendrick BourneWR

6/7 for 63 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · -1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	10	63	4:58	Field goal +3
2	BUF	BUF 24	2	0	0:15	Interception
3	NE	BUF 45	8	45	2:49	Touchdown +7
4	BUF	BUF 25	14	66	7:09	Field goal +3
5	NE	NE 25	5	9	1:53	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 13	4	3	2:36	Punt
7	NE	BUF 46	5	40	2:44	Field goal +3
8	BUF	BUF 25	13	51	5:45	Missed field goal
9	NE	NE 32	7	19	1:30	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 3	1	2	0:21	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 19	12	76	5:07	Touchdown +7
12	NE	NE 25	10	44	5:23	Field goal +3
13	BUF	BUF 25	14	47	5:47	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 34	10	66	6:07	Touchdown +6
15	BUF	BUF 25	7	60	2:04	Touchdown +7
16	NE	NE 25	3	9	0:36	Fumble
17	BUF	NE 29	8	29	2:58	Touchdown +8
18	NE	NE 25	10	69	1:46	Touchdown +7
19	BUF	BUF 25	3	5	0:12	Fumble

10 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 76 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	27/41	265	2	1	1	8.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	13	56	4.3	0	-1.6
Josh Allen	7	17	2.4	1	4.5
Latavius Murray	4	8	2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dalton Kincaid	8	8	75	0	21%	7.4
Stefon Diggs	6	12	58	1	31%	-0.1
James Cook	3	3	46	1	8%	6.8
Khalil Shakir	4	4	35	0	10%	2.2
Latavius Murray	2	2	20	0	5%	3.1
Dawson Knox	1	3	10	0	8%	-5.5
Deonte Harty	1	1	10	0	3%	1.3
Gabe Davis	1	5	6	0	13%	-2.4
Trent Sherfield	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Poyer	5	5	1.0	0
Terrel Bernard	6	2	0.0	0
Tyrel Dodson	5	2	0.0	0
Dane Jackson	5	0	0.0	0
Dorian Williams	2	2	0.0	0
Micah Hyde	1	2	0.0	0
Poona Ford	1	2	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	3	0	0.0	1
Christian Benford	2	1	0.0	0
Dalton Kincaid	1	0	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	25/30	272	2	0	1	13.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	9	34	3.8	0	-2.2
Ezekiel Elliott	11	31	2.8	1	0.6
Demario Douglas	1	20	20.0	0	1.8
Mac Jones	3	11	3.7	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	6	7	63	1	23%	-1.3
Demario Douglas	4	6	54	0	20%	3.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	6	6	51	0	20%	0.6
Pharaoh Brown	2	2	51	0	7%	3.3
Hunter Henry	2	3	27	0	10%	2.0
Jalen Reagor	1	1	11	0	3%	1.0
DeVante Parker	1	1	8	0	3%	0.4
Mike Gesicki	2	2	5	1	7%	2.3
Tyquan Thornton	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.4
Ezekiel Elliott	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	7	0.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	5	0.0	1	1
J.C. Jackson	5	0	0.0	0	1
Anfernee Jennings	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	5	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	1	3	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	2	0.0	0	0
Deatrich Wise	1	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -7.5
Closing total: 41
BUF moneyline: -395
NE moneyline: +310

Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41; the game landed 54 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 55°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: BUF 7 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bill Belichick

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.