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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:37 AM ET · 16 to play
Buffalo Bills 25 at New England Patriots 29. Final.
Bills -7.5 upsetO 41 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
New England Patriots 29, Bills 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:15, 2nd and 1, on Mike Gesicki — 42.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:15 · 2nd and 1
Mike Gesicki
Patriots
(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 29–25. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, Patriots +42.2% win probability on one snap.
42.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kendrick BourneBillsQ4 5:02(5:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to NE 29 for 9 yards (30-D.Jackson, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at NE 29. 43-T.Bernard to NE 29 for no gain (84-K.Bourne).
26.6pts
Dalton KincaidBillsQ4 2:50(2:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to NE 4 for 4 yards (29-J.Jackson).
19.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bills at 3 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Bills163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +42.2 for PatriotsExpected points +2.14 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 12 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15NE +42% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:02BUF +27% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne to NE 29 for 9 yards (30-D.Jackson, 21-J.Poyer). FUMBLES (21-J.Poyer), RECOVERED by BUF-43-T.Bernard at NE 29. 43-T.Bernard to NE 29 for no gain (84-K.Bourne).
4th · 2:50NE +19% win prob(2:50) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 86-D.Kincaid to NE 4 for 4 yards (29-J.Jackson).
2nd · 1:55BUF +13% win prob(1:55) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
4th · 0:54NE +13% win prob(:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry to BUF 25 for 14 yards (20-T.Rapp) [57-A.Epenesa].
3rd · 9:57NE +12% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Gesicki's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:15 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:05Chad Ryland·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+30–3
4th0:15Mike Gesicki·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac JonesLead never changed again+725–29
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills1–7Patriots
339Total yards364
5.1Yards per play6.5
52%Success rate52%
42%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays7
22First downs20
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Bills: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.16Patriots: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Bills: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.29Patriots: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Bills: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.03Patriots: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 66 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Patriots’s 56 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Bills 5, Patriots 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's play-action rate turned over: 46.9% in week 6 against 17.4% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 24 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 17.2%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots13.0%
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteNE's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.2 points below their season mean of 31.2% and 1.3 times their own 24.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Spencer BrownT · Every snap100%71 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%71 snaps
64O'Cyrus TorrenceG · Every snap100%71 snaps
60Mitch MorseC · Every snap100%71 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
13Gabe DavisWR · Full-time96%68 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time87%62 snaps
88Dawson KnoxTE · Heavy rotation63%45 snaps
86Dalton KincaidTE · Heavy rotation61%43 snaps
4James CookRB · Heavy rotation52%37 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational45%32 snaps
10Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational34%24 snaps
11Deonte HartyWR · Rotational27%19 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational23%16 snaps
41Reggie GilliamFB · Situational6%4 snaps
76David EdwardsG · Situational6%4 snaps
26Ty JohnsonRB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Ed OliverDTGermain IfediGA.J. KleinOLBDamar HamlinSSAlec AndersonTQuintin MorrisTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Kyle AllenQB
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%60 snaps
62Sidy SowT · Every snap100%60 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%60 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Trenton BrownT · Full-time95%57 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Full-time93%56 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation65%39 snaps
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass+35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:15) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:15 · Patriots · 2nd & goal at BUF 1 · gained 1 · +2.14 EP · +35.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 81 yards from the BUF 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
705
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.3270%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.0668%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.3035%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2150%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Bills0Patriots3
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 12
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bills0Patriots9
Bills0Patriots10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 45 to the Bills 2
The period ended15 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 8
2nd quarter42 plays
Bills3Patriots10
Field goal2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 34
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Bills 21
Bills3Patriots13
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 6
No good13 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 17
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Bills 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Bills9Patriots13
Bills10Patriots13
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bills 19 to the Patriots 8
Bills10Patriots16
Field goal11 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 25
The period ended12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 43
4th quarter59 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Patriots 33
Bills10Patriots22
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 34 to the Bills 4
Bills16Patriots22
Bills17Patriots22
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 25
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bills23Patriots22
Bills25Patriots22
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Bills25Patriots28
Bills25Patriots29
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
