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2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland39
BY 1final margin
ColtsIndianapolis38
Cleveland Browns 39 at Indianapolis Colts 38. Final.
Browns -3.5 no coverO 40 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Cleveland Browns 39, Colts 38 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:19, 4th and 1, on Kareem Hunt — 42.2 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:19 · 4th and 1
Kareem Hunt
Browns
(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Browns closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 39–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, Browns +42.2% win probability on one snap.
42.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael PittmanColtsQ4 5:50(5:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-11-M.Pittman, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
36.7pts
Gardner MinshewBrownsQ4 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 21 for -4 yards (99-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (99-Z.Smith) [99-Z.Smith], RECOVERED by CLE-54-O.Okoronkwo at IND 26.
19.2pts
What separated them
Third down
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 15 on third down, against Browns at 4 of 16 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Colts owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Browns won this one — 3 giveaways, against Colts at 4 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Browns191 of 202 plays carry both curves
(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −42.2 for ColtsExpected points −3.25 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 195
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:19IND +42% win prob(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:50IND +37% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-11-M.Pittman, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 0:09CLE +19% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 21 for -4 yards (99-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (99-Z.Smith) [99-Z.Smith], RECOVERED by CLE-54-O.Okoronkwo at IND 26.
2nd · 1:50CLE +18% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND -5 for -11 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], RECOVERED by CLE-42-T.Fields at IND -5. TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:09IND +15% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce to CLE 16 for 32 yards (26-R.McLeod). Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 1:34CLE +15% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 32 for -7 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], touched at IND 33, RECOVERED by CLE-5-A.Walker at IND 36.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:19 left in the 4th put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:19Kareem Hunt·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no goodLead never changed again+639–38
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryColts
Browns2–7Colts
317Total yards456
4.5Yards per play6.8
34%Success rate40%
25%Third-down rate47%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays9
16First downs19
2Sacks taken4
3Turnovers4
The read
Colts ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Browns: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.05Colts: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Browns: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.17Colts: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Browns: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.23Colts: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 71 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Colts’s 67 at 45%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Colts 5.
NoteColts outgained Browns 456-317 but lost the turnover battle 4-3. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −16.5 pts, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 6.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
IND's early-down pass rate turned over: 78.8% in week 6 against 36.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Colts17.9%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteCLE's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 60.0%, 30.5 points above their season mean of 29.5% and 2.4 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%75 snaps
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%75 snaps
55Ethan PocicC · Every snap100%75 snaps
79Dawand JonesT · Every snap100%75 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Full-time96%72 snaps
2Amari CooperWR · Full-time88%66 snaps
10Phillip WalkerQB · Full-time84%63 snaps
8Elijah MooreWR · Heavy rotation79%59 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation61%46 snaps
1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hudson and+38% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:19 · Browns · 4th & goal at IND 1 · gained 1 · +3.25 EP · +38.4% win probability
189 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 202 plays across 32 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 197. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 32 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
202 of 202 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
202
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
38%
Yards
772
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.0444%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.0961%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.3531%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.6220%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.180%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
202 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
202 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns6Colts0
Browns7Colts0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 31
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Browns7Colts6
Browns7Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 41
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 27
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Browns 46
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 3 to the Browns 7
Browns7Colts13
Browns7Colts14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Browns 17
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 25
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Colts 39
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Colts 20
2nd quarter56 plays
Browns13Colts14
Browns14Colts14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Colts 2
No good10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Browns 26
Browns17Colts14
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 23
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Browns17Colts20
Browns17Colts21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Browns 4
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Colts 43
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Browns23Colts21
Touchdown3 plays
Browns24Colts21
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Colts 22
Browns27Colts21
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Colts 36
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 32
Punt4 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Colts 41
Browns30Colts21
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Colts 36
Browns30Colts27
Browns30Colts28
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Browns 5
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Colts 41
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from midfield to the Browns 16
4th quarter60 plays
Browns30Colts31
Field goal3 plays, from the Browns 15 to the Browns 9
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Colts 41
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 2 to the Colts 7
Browns33Colts31
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Colts 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Browns33Colts37
Browns33Colts38
Touchdown4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Colts 34
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, one linebacker and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Browns39Colts38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown17 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Colts 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
