2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Indianapolis Colts

CLE -3.5 no coverO 40 ✓Browns closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Cleveland Browns 39–38 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:19, IND +42% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:19CLE 39 — IND 38CLE ball · 4th & 1IND 63%

(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:19IND +42% win prob(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:50IND +37% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-11-M.Pittman, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 0:09CLE +19% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND 21 for -4 yards (99-Z.Smith). FUMBLES (99-Z.Smith) [99-Z.Smith], RECOVERED by CLE-54-O.Okoronkwo at IND 26.
Q2 · 1:50CLE +18% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND -5 for -11 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], RECOVERED by CLE-42-T.Fields at IND -5. TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 14:12CLE Touchdown
(14:12) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford right guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — IND 0
Q1 · 11:47IND Touchdown
(11:47) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 1-J.Downs for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — IND 7
Q1 · 4:34IND Touchdown
(4:34) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles right tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 7 — IND 14
Q2 · 14:24CLE Touchdown
(14:24) (Shotgun) 66-J.Hudson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 27-K.Hunt. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 14 — IND 14
Q2 · 8:43CLE Field goal
(8:43) 7-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 17 — IND 14
Q2 · 3:57IND Touchdown
(3:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 17 — IND 21
Q2 · 1:50CLE Touchdown
(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew sacked at IND -5 for -11 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], RECOVERED by CLE-42-T.Fields at IND -5. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 24 — IND 21
Q2 · 0:02CLE Field goal
(:02) 7-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 27 — IND 21
Q3 · 9:28CLE Field goal
(9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 30 — IND 21
Q3 · 5:14IND Touchdown
(5:14) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 30 — IND 28
Q4 · 14:13IND Field goal
(14:13) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: CLE 30 — IND 31
Q4 · 6:38CLE Field goal
(6:38) 7-D.Hopkins 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
Score after this play: CLE 33 — IND 31
Q4 · 5:50IND Touchdown
(5:50) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on IND-11-M.Pittman, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: CLE 33 — IND 38
Q4 · 0:19CLE Touchdown
(:19) 66-J.Hudson and 53-N.Harris reported in as eligible. 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: CLE 39 — IND 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Colts
Offensive plays	71	67
Total yards	317	456 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.16	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	34%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	55%	45%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	4/16	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	3 (edge)	4

Colts outgained Browns 456–317 but lost the turnover battle 4–3. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

15/23, 305 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.7 expected points added · +0.4% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

P.J. WalkerQB

15/32, 178 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.3 expected points added · -18.7% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

18 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Jerome FordRB

11 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

5/6 for 125 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Michael PittmanWR

2/5 for 83 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 2.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 23	5	77	0:57	Touchdown +7
2	IND	IND 25	8	75	2:25	Touchdown +7
3	CLE	CLE 25	4	2	0:44	Interception
4	IND	IND 45	4	6	1:51	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 3	4	4	2:10	Punt
6	IND	IND 43	7	52	2:25	Touchdown +7
7	CLE	CLE 22	5	3	1:37	Punt
8	IND	IND 27	3	6	1:28	Fumble
9	CLE	IND 36	6	36	2:01	Touchdown +7
10	IND	IND 25	8	43	4:13	Missed field goal
11	CLE	IND 26	4	0	1:31	Field goal +3
12	IND	IND 25	10	75	4:47	Touchdown +7
13	CLE	CLE 25	7	37	1:57	Punt
14	IND	IND 11	2	-11	0:12	Defensive touchdown
15	IND	IND 20	5	2	0:25	Punt
16	CLE	CLE 30	7	34	1:17	Field goal +3
17	IND	IND 30	5	2	1:38	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 20	4	-9	1:36	Punt
19	IND	IND 33	3	8	1:30	Interception
20	CLE	IND 42	4	6	0:53	Field goal +3
21	IND	IND 25	10	70	4:12	Touchdown +7
22	CLE	CLE 25	8	19	2:53	Turnover on downs
23	IND	50	7	41	3:09	Field goal +3
24	CLE	CLE 25	8	28	3:03	Interception
25	IND	IND 2	4	5	2:04	Punt
26	CLE	CLE 43	6	17	2:29	Field goal +3
27	IND	IND 25	4	75	0:55	Touchdown +7
28	CLE	CLE 25	5	-5	1:59	Punt
29	IND	IND 32	4	7	1:04	Punt
30	CLE	CLE 20	13	68	2:20	Touchdown +6
31	IND	IND 25	3	0	0:13	Fumble
32	CLE	IND 26	1	0	0:02	End of game

13 of 32 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 77 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
P.J. Walker	15/32	178	0	1	2	-3.3
Deshaun Watson	1/5	5	0	1	0	-5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jerome Ford	11	74	6.7	1	0.5
Kareem Hunt	10	31	3.1	2	1.9
Pierre Strong	8	25	3.1	0	-3.0
Marquise Goodwin	1	17	17.0	0	1.7
P.J. Walker	3	3	1.0	0	-5.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Elijah Moore	4	7	59	20%	-1.1
David Njoku	5	9	54	26%	3.1
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	3	22	9%	-0.7
Amari Cooper	2	8	22	23%	-2.4
Jerome Ford	2	4	20	11%	-0.6
Marquise Goodwin	1	2	6	6%	-3.0
Kareem Hunt	0	1	0	3%	-0.7
Harrison Bryant	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Grant Delpit	6	3	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	5	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Walker	1	6	0.0	0	1
Myles Garrett	5	2	2.0	0	1
Tony Fields	1	4	0.0	0	0
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah	3	1	0.0	0	0
Dalvin Tomlinson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo	2	1	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	1	1
Jordan Elliott	2	1	1.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	15/23	305	2	1	4	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	18	75	4.2	1	-0.3
Zack Moss	18	57	3.2	0	-7.9
Gardner Minshew	3	29	9.7	2	4.3
Isaiah McKenzie	1	7	7.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Downs	5	6	125	1	27%	11.4
Michael Pittman	2	5	83	1	23%	2.7
Alec Pierce	3	3	53	0	14%	5.0
Jonathan Taylor	3	4	45	0	18%	1.3
Zack Moss	1	2	5	0	9%	-1.6
Will Mallory	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	-6	0	5%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zaire Franklin	8	2	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	3	1.5	0	0
Shaquille Leonard	3	4	0.0	0	0
E.J. Speed	2	3	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	3	2	0.0	0	1
Julian Blackmon	2	1	0.0	1	2
Kwity Paye	2	1	0.0	0	0
Darrell Baker	3	0	0.0	0	1
Samson Ebukam	2	1	0.0	0	1
Dayo Odeyingbo	1	1	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CLE -3.5
Closing total: 40
CLE moneyline: -180
IND moneyline: +150

Browns closed -3.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40; the game landed 77 — over by 37.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CLE 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Shane Steichen