For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit6
BY 32final margin
RavensBaltimore38
Detroit Lions 6 at Baltimore Ravens 38. Final.
Ravens -3 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Baltimore Ravens 38, Lions 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:42, 4th and 1, on Lamar Jackson — 6.2 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:42 · 4th and 1
Lamar Jackson
Ravens
(10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8 mph wind
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 32.
Baltimore Ravens 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:42, Ravens +6.2% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.8 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
6.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zay FlowersRavensQ1 13:46(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DET 16 for 46 yards (21-T.Walker).
5.5pts
Nelson AgholorRavensQ1 3:22(3:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.3pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.74 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.47 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Ravens won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 0.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Lions158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.2 for RavensExpected points +2.92 for RavensThe model had Lions 3 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:42BAL +6% win prob(10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:46BAL +5% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DET 16 for 46 yards (21-T.Walker).
1st · 3:22BAL +5% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:55BAL +5% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 7-R.Bateman to DET 30 for 20 yards (1-C.Sutton).
1st · 14:26BAL +4% win prob(14:26) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 38 for 11 yards (31-K.Joseph).
1st · 0:16BAL +3% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers ran ob at BAL 49 for 22 yards.
1st · 8:07BAL +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Lamar Jackson's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 10:42 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:42Lamar Jackson·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th14:05Jahmyr Gibbs·21-yd TD run21-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+66–35
4th9:33Justin Tucker·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap T.Ott+36–38
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryRavens
Lions0–8Ravens
337Total yards504
4.6Yards per play9.3
42%Success rate52%
31%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns5
5Explosive plays11
18First downs22
5Sacks taken0
1Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.47Ravens: +0.47 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Lions: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.74Ravens: +0.74 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Lions: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.06Ravens: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 73 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Ravens’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Lions 3, Ravens 6.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.47 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DET's early-down pass rate, 80.0%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 8.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 63.5% in week 6.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, +12.4 pts, is past their previous high of +2.6 pts in week 5 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 6.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 33.3% in week 6 against 13.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −14.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Ravens13.6%
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 59 dropbacks
NoteDET's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 27.3 points above their season mean of 52.7% and 2.6 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
60Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%75 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%75 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%75 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%75 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%75 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiG · Every snap100%75 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time97%73 snaps
26Jahmyr GibbsRB · Full-time87%65 snaps
8Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation73%55 snaps
87Sam LaPortaTE · Heavy rotation72%54 snaps
80Antoine GreenWR · Rotational44%33 snaps
9Jameson WilliamsWR · Rotational44%33 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Rotational36%27 snaps
89Brock WrightTE · Rotational35%26 snaps
13Craig ReynoldsRB · Situational9%7 snaps
44Malcolm RodriguezILB · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jerry JacobsCBLevi OnwuzurikeDECharles HarrisDEBrodric MartinDTJonah JacksonGDavid MontgomeryRBMarvin JonesWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+9% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DET 16 for 46 yards (21-T.Walker).
Q1 13:46 · Ravens · 1st & 10 at BAL 38 · gained 46 · +2.82 EP · +8.7% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
44%
Yards
840
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.1384%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.3361%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2742%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+1.2055%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.0429%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.6860%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.0160%
Lions0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Lions0Ravens6
Lions0Ravens7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Lions 7
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 38 to the Lions 42
Lions0Ravens13
Lions0Ravens14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Lions 12
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 31
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 28
2nd quarter47 plays
Lions0Ravens20
Lions0Ravens21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Lions 11
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 32
Lions0Ravens27
Lions0Ravens28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Lions 2
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Ravens 48
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Lions 21
Punt14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Ravens 28
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Ravens 6
Lions0Ravens34
Lions0Ravens35
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Lions 8
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Ravens 36
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 23 to the Ravens 45
4th quarter41 plays
Lions6Ravens35
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Ravens 21
Lions6Ravens38
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Lions 11
The period ended15 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Ravens 20
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Ravens 25
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 42 to the Ravens 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
43.5
Lions moneyline
+136
Ravens moneyline
-162
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 60°F at kickoff; windy at 16 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Lions 7 days · Ravens 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs John Harbaugh
NoteWind at 15.8 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
(8:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to DET 49 for 16 yards (1-C.Sutton).
1st · 9:09DET +2% win prob(9:09) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to BAL 17, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay. PENALTY on DET-27-C.Lucas, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 17.
