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2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium

Detroit Lions

6

Baltimore RavensWinner

38

BAL -3 ✓O 43.5 ✓16 mph wind

Baltimore Ravens 38–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:42, BAL +6% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑DET ↓
Q1 · 10:42DET 0 — BAL 6BAL ball · 4th & 1BAL 66%

(10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 10:42BAL +6% win prob(10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 13:46BAL +5% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 4-Z.Flowers to DET 16 for 46 yards (21-T.Walker).
  3. Q1 · 3:22BAL +5% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 6:55BAL +5% win prob(6:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 7-R.Bateman to DET 30 for 20 yards (1-C.Sutton).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:42BAL Touchdown

    (10:42) 8-L.Jackson left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — BAL 7
  2. Q1 · 3:22BAL Touchdown

    (3:22) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 15-N.Agholor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — BAL 14
  3. Q2 · 13:00BAL Touchdown

    (13:00) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — BAL 21
  4. Q2 · 7:49BAL Touchdown

    (7:49) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — BAL 28
  5. Q3 · 7:29BAL Touchdown

    (7:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DET 0 — BAL 35
  6. Q4 · 14:05DET Touchdown

    (14:05) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: DET 6 — BAL 35
  7. Q4 · 9:33BAL Field goal

    (9:33) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: DET 6 — BAL 38

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricLionsRavens
Offensive plays7354
Total yards337504 (edge)
Yards per play4.69.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.160.47 (edge)
Success rate42%52% (edge)
Dropback rate81%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.230.74 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.13 (edge)0.06
Third downs5/164/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)511 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1822 (edge)
Sacks taken50 (edge)
Turnovers11

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.47 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

21/27, 357 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

25.3 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

33/53, 284 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-13.3 expected points added · -1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

11 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

14 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Amon-Ra St. BrownWR

13/19 for 102 yds, 0 TD

39% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

4/6 for 75 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 259754:23Touchdown +7
2DETDET 38501:40Punt
3BALBAL 3212685:46Touchdown +7
4DETDET 25561:20Punt
5BALBAL 891023:57Touchdown +7
6DETDET 25572:13Punt
7BALBAL 207802:56Touchdown +7
8DETDET 258272:55Turnover on downs
9BALBAL 484312:37Fumble
10DETDET 2510572:08Punt
11BALBAL 20100:05End of half
12DETDET 2512695:29Turnover on downs
13BALBAL 65942:06Touchdown +7
14DETDET 368282:38Interception
15BALBAL 206102:17Punt
16DETDET 239623:31Touchdown +6
17BALDET 438394:29Field goal +3
18DETDET 2514554:36Turnover on downs
19BALBAL 20451:46Punt
20DETDET 428263:08End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 102 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff33/53284015-13.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs11686.211.2
Craig Reynolds3165.300.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Amon-Ra St. Brown1319102039%3.1
Jahmyr Gibbs91058020%-1.5
Sam LaPorta6752014%4.6
Josh Reynolds234306%0.6
Kalif Raymond222004%1.3
Craig Reynolds11902%0.6
Jameson Williams060012%-6.3
Antoine Green01002%-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Kerby Joseph910.000
Tracy Walker III520.000
Alex Anzalone330.000
Aidan Hutchinson220.000
Jack Campbell130.000
Josh Paschal210.000
Cameron Sutton210.000
Alim McNeill110.000
Derrick Barnes110.000
Will Harris100.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson21/2735730025.3
Tyler Huntley0/10000-0.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Gus Edwards14644.611.2
Justice Hill44611.501.3
Lamar Jackson9364.01-1.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Gus Edwards118004%5.4
Zay Flowers4675021%3.8
Mark Andrews4663221%6.1
Odell Beckham5749025%1.6
Rashod Bateman2336011%3.3
Patrick Ricard223107%1.4
Nelson Agholor111214%2.5
Keaton Mitchell11904%0.7
Justice Hill11204%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Arthur Maulet711.000
Roquan Smith530.001
Kyle Hamilton510.000
Kyle Van Noy232.000
Patrick Queen400.000
Nnamdi Madubuike301.000
Odafe Oweh211.000
Brandon Stephens300.002
Geno Stone200.011
Travis Jones110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -3
Closing total
43.5
DET moneyline
+136
BAL moneyline
-162

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
62°F, wind 16 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
DET 7 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches
Dan Campbell vs John Harbaugh

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.