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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 7
It turned at Q4 8:35, 4th and 2, on Jayden Reed — 22.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:35, Packers +22.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:35 · 4th and 2
Jayden Reed
Packers
(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.16 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Packers at 6 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Wil Lutz's 52-yard field goal with 3:54 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Wil Lutz52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+317–198 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryBroncos
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Broncos’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Broncos 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
GB's sack or hit rate, 9.7%, is past their previous low of 12.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Packers-8.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.8 vs their 0.4 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 61 snaps
Broncos-2.4 ptsright on their number · +1.3 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 27% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers44.4%inside their normal wobble · −10.9 vs their 55.4%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 45 early downs
Broncos50.0%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 45%
Tendencies room →Packers23.5%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Broncos16.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Packers33.3%right on their number · −8.3 vs their 41.7%, and they swing ±25.9 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos0.0%leaned — took the kick · −21.6 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±19.1 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 65%
Tendencies room →Packers32.3%inside their normal wobble · +9.9 vs their 22.3%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos41.2%inside their normal wobble · +9.3 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Packers9.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos8.8%inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
GB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.4 pts, 8.8 points below their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
20/29, 194 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
4.1 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected
Passing · GB
21/31, 180 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
7.6 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
6/6 for 76 yds, 1 TD
25% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Courtland Sutton banked 9.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +9.7 | 86% | 97% | 25% | 43% | 6/6, 76 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 15.3 | −0.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/31, 180 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 21 yd |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | −0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/29, 194 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 21 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.6 | −0.9 | 53% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 15 car, 82 yd · 3/4, 14 yd |
| A.J. DillonRB · Committee Back | 11.5 | +2.1 | 56% | 56% | 6% | 1% | 15 car, 61 yd · 2/2, 34 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | +3.2 | 68% | 84% | 21% | 31% | 5/5, 64 yd |
| Jayden ReedWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | +3.4 | 48% | 53% | 13% | 16% | 3/4, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.0 | +0.5 | 81% | 79% | 16% | 31% | 2/5, 30 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | −2.6 | 36% | 35% | 16% | 7% | 8 car, 35 yd · 3/5, 22 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 7.1 | +2.4 | 25% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 2 car, 10 yd · 3/3, 31 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | −0.5 | 67% | 74% | 16% | 8% | 4/5, 30 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −1.7 | 88% | 88% | 16% | 16% | 3/5, 27 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 5.6 | −1.3 | 17% | 13% | 8% | 0% | 5 car, 45 yd · 1/2, 1 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 4.7 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +0.8 | 22% | 18% | 3% | 4% | 1/1, 14 yd · 1 car, 1 yd · 1/1, 17 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.4 | 73% | 77% | 8% | 22% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Nate AdkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Samori ToureWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ben SimsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dwayne WashingtonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Josiah DeguaraTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 29% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tucker KraftTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 50% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Michael BurtonRB | -0.2 | −0.6 | 20% | 19% | 0% | — | 1 car, -2 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | -1.1 | −5.1 | 31% | 45% | 4% | 16% | 1 car, -11 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 83-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Locke at DEN 12. 6-P.Locke to DEN 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).
Q4 1:52 · Packers · 3rd & 20 at GB 46 · gained nothing · -1.60 EP · −20.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 76 yards from the GB 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Packers0
Broncos3Packers0Broncos6Packers0Broncos9Packers3Broncos9Packers3Broncos15Packers3Broncos16Packers9Broncos16Packers10Broncos16How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Packers16Broncos16Packers17Broncos16Packers17Broncos19How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 21/31 | 180 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +7.6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.3 |
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Dillon | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 6% | +1.1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McDuffie | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Ford |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/29 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_07_GB_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.
Total closed 44; the game landed 36 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
| Jordan Love | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +1.6 |
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 5 | 30 | 1 | 16% | +0.7 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 16% | −0.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 16% | −0.7 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 13% | +4.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.1 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6% | −2.0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 82 | 5.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 5 | 45 | 9.0 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Michael Burton | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 6 | 76 | 1 | 25% | +8.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 21% | +2.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 13% | +1.7 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 17% | −0.7 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8% | −1.4 |
| Marvin Mims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kareem Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Fabian Moreau | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| P.J. Locke | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Perkins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
