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2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
PackersGreen Bay17
BY 2final margin
BroncosDenver19
Green Bay Packers 17 at Denver Broncos 19. Final.
Broncos -1.5 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Denver Broncos 19, Packers 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 8:35, 4th and 2, on Jayden Reed — 22.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:35 · 4th and 2
Jayden Reed
Packers
(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.
Denver Broncos 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:35, Packers +22.4% win probability on one snap.
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
P.J. LockeBroncosQ4 1:52(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 83-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Locke at DEN 12. 6-P.Locke to DEN 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).
18.7pts
Russell WilsonBroncosQ4 0:06(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right.
14.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.16 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Broncos won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Packers at 6 chunk plays.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Packers156 of 170 plays carry both curves
(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −22.4 for BroncosExpected points −3.96 for BroncosModel and market agree here.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:35DEN +22% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:52GB +19% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 83-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Locke at DEN 12. 6-P.Locke to DEN 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).
4th · 3:11DEN +14% win prob(3:11) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 28-A.Dillon to DEN 44 for 29 yards (47-J.Jewell).
4th · 3:54DEN +12% win prob(3:54) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
2nd · 0:46GB +12% win prob(:46) 17-A.Carlson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
1st · 14:16
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Wil Lutz's 52-yard field goal with 3:54 left in the 4th put Denver Broncos ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st8:30Wil Lutz·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+30–3
2nd13:17Wil Lutz·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+30–6
2nd0:09Wil Lutz·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+30–9
3rd10:28Anders Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–9
3rd6:22Courtland Sutton·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–16
3rd1:53Romeo Doubs·16-yd TD catch16-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+710–16
4th8:35Jayden Reed·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+717–16
4th3:54Wil Lutz·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.FraboniLead never changed again+317–19
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryBroncos
Packers5–4Broncos
331Total yards339
5.4Yards per play6.2
44%Success rate44%
43%Third-down rate42%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays7
18First downs15
0Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Packers: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.09Broncos: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Packers: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Packers: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.00Broncos: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Broncos’s 55 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Broncos 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's sack or hit rate, 9.7%, is past their previous low of 12.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Broncos8.8%
inside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.4 pts, 8.8 points below their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.3 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 83-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Locke at DEN 12. 6-P.Locke to DEN 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).
Q4 1:52 · Packers · 3rd & 20 at GB 46 · gained nothing · -1.60 EP · −20.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 76 yards from the GB 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
39%
Yards
670
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0952%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.1752%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1667%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2029%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1433%
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6-0.03100%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Packers0Broncos3
Field goal13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Packers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 24
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Broncos 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Packers 29
2nd quarter50 plays
Packers0Broncos6
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Packers 10
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 45
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Broncos 38
The period ended15 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Broncos 25
Packers0Broncos9
Field goal8 plays, from the Broncos 33 to the Packers 17
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Packers3Broncos9
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Broncos 11
Packers3Broncos15
Packers3Broncos16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Packers 18
Packers9Broncos16
Packers10Broncos16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Broncos 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
4th quarter42 plays
Punt1 play
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Packers16Broncos16
Packers17Broncos16
Touchdown15 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Broncos 4
Packers17Broncos19
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Packers 34
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Broncos 44
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -1.5
Closing total
44
Packers moneyline
-102
Broncos moneyline
-118
Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.
Total closed 44; the game landed 36 — under by 8.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 74°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Packers 13 days · Broncos 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton
DEN +11% win prob
(14:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton to GB 39 for 33 yards (37-C.Valentine).
4th · 2:00GB +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love left tackle to DEN 40 for 4 yards (47-J.Jewell). PENALTY on GB-74-E.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 44 - No Play.
