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2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Green Bay Packers

17

Denver BroncosWinner

19

DEN -1.5 ✓U 44 ✓

Denver Broncos 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 8:35, DEN +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑GB ↓
Q4 · 8:35GB 16 — DEN 16GB ball · 4th & 2DEN 72%

(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 8:35DEN +22% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 1:52GB +19% win prob(1:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right intended for 83-S.Toure INTERCEPTED by 6-P.Locke at DEN 12. 6-P.Locke to DEN 26 for 14 yards (85-T.Kraft).
  3. Q4 · 0:06DEN +15% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right.
  4. Q4 · 3:11DEN +14% win prob(3:11) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 28-A.Dillon to DEN 44 for 29 yards (47-J.Jewell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:30DEN Field goal

    (8:30) 16-W.Lutz 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — DEN 3
  2. Q2 · 13:17DEN Field goal

    (13:17) 16-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — DEN 6
  3. Q2 · 0:09DEN Field goal

    (:09) 16-W.Lutz 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: GB 0 — DEN 9
  4. Q3 · 10:28GB Field goal

    (10:28) 17-A.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — DEN 9
  5. Q3 · 6:22DEN Touchdown

    (6:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 3 — DEN 16
  6. Q3 · 1:53GB Touchdown

    (1:53) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 87-R.Doubs for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 10 — DEN 16
  7. Q4 · 8:35GB Touchdown

    (8:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 11-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — DEN 16
  8. Q4 · 3:54DEN Field goal

    (3:54) 16-W.Lutz 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: GB 17 — DEN 19

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBroncos
Offensive plays6155
Total yards331339 (edge)
Yards per play5.46.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.13 (edge)0.09
Success rate44% (edge)44%
Dropback rate56%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.080.00 (edge)
Third downs6/14 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps18 (edge)15
Sacks taken0 (edge)1
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

20/29, 194 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.1 expected points added · +15.0% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

21/31, 180 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

7.6 expected points added · +3.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

15 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

A.J. DillonRB

15 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/6 for 76 yds, 1 TD

25% of team targets · 8.2 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Jerry JeudyWR

5/5 for 64 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 2512726:33Field goal +3
2GBGB 25581:52Punt
3DENDEN 19451:20Punt
4GBGB 386162:44Punt
5DENDEN 2011654:17Field goal +3
6GBGB 258103:30Punt
7DENDEN 106173:13Punt
8GBGB 2811525:50Missed field goal
9DENDEN 336500:36Field goal +3
10GBGB 252140:05End of half
11GBGB 2513644:36Field goal +3
12DENDEN 259754:07Touchdown +7
13GBGB 2511704:31Touchdown +7
14DENDEN 25581:56Punt
15GBGB 2412666:19Touchdown +7
16DENDEN 2510414:41Field goal +3
17GBGB 256312:10Interception
18DENDEN 26461:40Turnover on downs

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love21/311802107.6
Dontayvion Wicks1/1140000.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
A.J. Dillon15614.10-2.3
Aaron Jones8354.40-0.1
Jordan Love3217.002.4
Emanuel Wilson2199.500.0
Dontayvion Wicks111.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
A.J. Dillon223406%1.1
Luke Musgrave4530016%1.6
Romeo Doubs2530116%0.7
Christian Watson3527016%-0.2
Aaron Jones3522016%-0.7
Jayden Reed3421113%4.0
Dontayvion Wicks111703%2.2
Emanuel Wilson22806%0.1
Samori Toure12306%-2.0
Ben Sims11203%1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah McDuffie630.000
Carrington Valentine710.000
Rudy Ford330.000
Rasul Douglas320.000
Kingsley Enagbare120.000
Colby Wooden210.000
Quay Walker210.000
Rashan Gary210.000
Preston Smith111.000
Devonte Wyatt110.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Russell Wilson20/291941014.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams15825.50-0.4
Jaleel McLaughlin5459.002.8
Russell Wilson12121.000.9
Samaje Perine2105.000.1
Michael Burton1-2-2.00-1.0
Marvin Mims1-11-11.00-1.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton6676125%8.2
Jerry Jeudy5564021%2.9
Samaje Perine3331013%1.7
Javonte Williams3414017%-0.7
Adam Trautman12508%-1.4
Nate Adkins11304%-0.5
Jaleel McLaughlin12108%-1.4
Marvin Mims01004%-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton650.000
Josey Jewell450.000
Jonathon Cooper230.000
Kareem Jackson410.001
Fabian Moreau310.001
P.J. Locke120.011
Zach Allen210.000
Justin Simmons120.000
D.J. Jones210.000
Ronnie Perkins200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -1.5
Closing total
44
GB moneyline
-102
DEN moneyline
-118

Broncos closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 2.

Total closed 44; the game landed 36 — under by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
72°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
GB 13 days · DEN 10 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton