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2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles17
BY 14final margin
ChiefsKansas City31
Los Angeles Chargers 17 at Kansas City Chiefs 31. Final.
Chiefs -5.5 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Kansas City Chiefs 31, Chargers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 10:51, 1st and 10, on Joshua Kelley — 11.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:51 · 1st and 10
Joshua Kelley
Chargers
(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Kansas City Chiefs 31–17. Biggest swing: Q2 10:51, Chargers +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingChiefsQ2 14:23(14:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.9pts
Gerald EverettChargersQ2 7:11(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.38 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.50 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.05 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers162 of 167 plays carry both curves
(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.7 for ChiefsExpected points −4.39 for ChiefsThe model had Chargers 9 points higher than the market did.play 48
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:51KC +12% win prob(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:23KC +11% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:11KC +10% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:04LAC +9% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 89-D.Parham INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed (90-C.Omenihu) at KC 6. 38-L.Sneed to KC 10 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater; 76-W.Clapp).
3rd · 10:33LAC +8% win prob(10:33) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 81-B.Bell to LAC 19 for 7 yards (6-E.Kendricks). FUMBLES (6-E.Kendricks), touched at LAC 19, RECOVERED by LAC-3-D.James at LAC 19.
2nd · 8:20KC +8% win prob(8:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 5-J.Palmer to KC 9 for 60 yards (6-B.Cook).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:21 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st6:52Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+30–3
1st1:53Cameron Dicker·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+33–3
2nd14:23Marquez Valdes-Scantling·46-yd TD catch46-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+73–10
2nd0:21Travis Kelce·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+717–24
4th3:35Isiah Pacheco·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+717–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chargers0–7Chiefs
359Total yards485
6.0Yards per play7.8
37%Success rate52%
43%Third-down rate55%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays7
15First downs25
5Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.50Chiefs: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Chargers: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.38Chiefs: −0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 60 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 62 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +13.5 pts, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 1.1 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 6 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 14 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 25.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chiefs22.2%
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NoteKC's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 13.9%, 19.2 points below their season mean of 33.1% and 1.6 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Kelley left+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:51 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at KC 49 · gained 49 · +4.39 EP · +12.5% win probability
160 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 162. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 96 yards from the KC 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
41%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.0267%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2377%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.5557%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4042%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.1156%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 43
Chargers0Chiefs3
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Chargers 17
Chargers3Chiefs3
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 42
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
Chargers3Chiefs9
Chargers3Chiefs10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chargers 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers9Chiefs10
Chargers10Chiefs10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 49
Chargers10Chiefs16
Chargers10Chiefs17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 6
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Chargers16Chiefs17
Chargers17Chiefs17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 7
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 41
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Chargers 49
Chargers17Chiefs23
Chargers17Chiefs24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chargers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chargers 26
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chiefs 8
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 37
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chargers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Chiefs 10
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 47
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chiefs 35
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 27
Chargers17Chiefs30
Chargers17Chiefs31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 35 to the Chargers 8
Intercepted11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chiefs 35
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
