2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Los Angeles Chargers
17
Kansas City ChiefsWinner
31
Kansas City Chiefs 31–17. Biggest swing: Q2 10:51, KC +12% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 10:51KC +12% win prob(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 14:23KC +11% win prob(14:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 7:11KC +10% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 5:04LAC +9% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 89-D.Parham INTERCEPTED by 38-L.Sneed (90-C.Omenihu) at KC 6. 38-L.Sneed to KC 10 for 4 yards (70-R.Slater; 76-W.Clapp).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 6:52KC Field goal
(6:52) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: LAC 0 — KC 3 - Q1 · 1:53LAC Field goal
(1:53) 11-C.Dicker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Score after this play: LAC 3 — KC 3 - Q2 · 14:23KC Touchdown
(14:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 3 — KC 10 - Q2 · 10:51LAC Touchdown
(10:51) 25-J.Kelley left guard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 10 — KC 10 - Q2 · 8:44KC Touchdown
(8:44) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 10 — KC 17 - Q2 · 7:11LAC Touchdown
(7:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 7-G.Everett for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 17 — KC 17 - Q2 · 0:21KC Touchdown
(:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 17 — KC 24 - Q4 · 3:35KC Touchdown
(3:35) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-I.Pacheco for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: LAC 17 — KC 31
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Chargers | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 60 | 62 |
| Total yards | 359 | 485 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.0 | 7.8 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.05 | 0.26 (edge) |
| Success rate | 37% | 52% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 60% | 73% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 | 0.50 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.08 (edge) | -0.38 |
| Third downs | 6/14 | 6/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 15 | 25 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · KC
32/42, 424 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
22.3 expected points added · +12.7% completion over expected
Passing · LAC
17/30, 259 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
0.5 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 8 | 3:01 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 17 | 11 | 86 | 5:10 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 25 | 11 | 38 | 5:01 | Field goal +3 | |
| 4 | KC | KC 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:37 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 25 | 8 | 85 | 3:29 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 75 | 2:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 25 | 7 | 75 | 1:31 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | KC | KC 25 | 5 | 14 | 1:22 | Interception | |
| 9 | LAC | LAC 21 | 7 | 28 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 10 | KC | KC 4 | 7 | 83 | 2:33 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | LAC | LAC 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:15 | End of half | |
| 12 | KC | KC 25 | 10 | 56 | 4:36 | Fumble | |
| 13 | LAC | LAC 19 | 11 | 73 | 5:28 | Interception | |
| 14 | KC | KC 10 | 9 | 23 | 4:40 | Punt | |
| 15 | LAC | LAC 24 | 4 | 8 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 16 | KC | KC 3 | 4 | 7 | 0:53 | Punt | |
| 17 | LAC | LAC 44 | 4 | 8 | 0:50 | Punt | |
| 18 | KC | KC 8 | 8 | 31 | 3:51 | Punt | |
| 19 | LAC | LAC 22 | 4 | 5 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 20 | KC | LAC 35 | 7 | 35 | 2:46 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 21 | LAC | LAC 25 | 10 | 31 | 2:23 | Interception | |
| 22 | KC | KC 31 | 2 | 0 | 1:07 | End of game |
8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 86 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
Box score
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/30 | 259 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 1 | 3.7 |
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Derius Davis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 7 | 133 | 0 | 23% | 11.0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 30% | -2.3 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 | 13% | 2.5 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 7% | 2.1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 7% | -0.0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 10% | -2.8 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7% | -1.4 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Marlowe | 10 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Kendricks | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray | 7 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Asante Samuel | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael Davis | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuli Tuipulotu | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daiyan Henley | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 32/42 | 424 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 22.3 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 | 5.3 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.3 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 12 | 13 | 179 | 1 | 33% | 13.8 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 13% | 5.6 |
| Rashee Rice | 5 | 6 | 60 | 1 | 15% | 1.9 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 4 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 10% | 2.4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 5% | 0.9 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 8% | 0.4 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.6 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | -4.5 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8% | -0.9 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| L'Jarius Sneed | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent McDuffie | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Cook | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Willie Gay | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tershawn Wharton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- KC -5.5
- Closing total
- 48.5
- LAC moneyline
- +215
- KC moneyline
- -265
Chiefs closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 48 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 72°F, wind 10 mph
- Referee
- Tra Blake
- Rest
- LAC 6 days · KC 10 days
- Coaches
- Brandon Staley vs Andy Reid
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.