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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:40 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 7
It turned at Q1 10:12, 4th and 4, on Daniel Carlson — 9.1 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Chicago Bears 30–12 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:12, Bears +9.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:12 · 4th and 4
Daniel Carlson
Bears
(10:12) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
9.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Bears won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Raiders at 2 of 9 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(10:12) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Onta Foreman's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 3:49 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jaylon Johnson39-yd defense TD39-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · kick blocked by I.Rochell+66–30
Jakobi Meyers9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Aidan O'Connell · two-point no good+612–308 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryBears
Bears ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 61 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Bears’s 67 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Bears 3.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.6% in week 6 against 71.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
LV's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 6 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.9 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
LV's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.7 pts in week 6 against +4.8 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −16.1 pts in week 6 against −4.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points. · +0.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders4.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +7.0 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 60 snaps
Bears-4.0 ptsright on their number · +1.1 vs their -5.1 pts, and they swing ±5.4 week to week (+0.21× that swing) · 67 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 28% to 81%
Tendencies room →Raiders71.4%leaned — passed early · +16.9 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.61× that swing) · 49 early downs
Bears43.4%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 51.1%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 46%
Tendencies room →Raiders14.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bears18.2%inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 23.3%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.70× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 92%
Fourth Down room →Raiders50.0%leaned — went for it · +24.0 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±17.9 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Bears—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 39.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 48%
Tendencies room →Raiders18.2%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears25.5%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 30%
Tendencies room →Raiders9.1%inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bears6.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
LV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.4%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 54.5% and 1.6 times their own 10.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
21/29, 162 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
5.5 expected points added · -1.4% completion over expected
Passing · LV
17/32, 129 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-13.5 expected points added · -14.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
D'Onta Foreman banked 13.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta ForemanRB · Committee Back | 33.0 | +13.1 | 46% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 16 car, 89 yd, 2 TD · 3/5, 31 yd, 1 TD |
| Jakobi MeyersWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.0 | −0.7 | 94% | 96% | 29% | 42% | 7/13, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| D.J. MooreWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.4 | −2.4 | 89% | 91% | 31% | 57% | 8/9, 54 yd |
| Tyson BagentQB · Starter QB | 12.9 | −1.3 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 21/29, 162 yd, 1 TD · 3 car, 24 yd |
| Davante AdamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.7 | −6.7 | 75% | 70% | 27% | 26% | 7/12, 57 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | −2.6 | 68% | 91% | 17% | 55% | 1 car, 2 yd · 4/5, 32 yd |
| Darrynton EvansRB · Committee Back | 6.4 | −5.2 | 48% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 14 car, 48 yd · 1/3, 6 yd |
| Zamir WhiteRB | 5.8 | +0.9 | 22% | 26% | 7% | 2% | 2 car, 2 yd · 3/3, 26 yd |
| Tyler ScottWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −0.8 | 56% | 67% | 10% | 55% | 2 car, 14 yd · 2/3, 19 yd |
| Josh JacobsRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.1 | −8.4 | 66% | 62% | 9% | 3% | 11 car, 35 yd · 1/4, 6 yd |
| Aidan O'ConnellQB | 5.0 | +0.4 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 10/13, 75 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | −1.2 | 49% | 57% | 7% | 7% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Austin HooperTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.8 | +0.3 | 34% | 34% | 4% | 1% | 2/2, 18 yd |
| Hunter RenfrowWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −0.8 | 37% | 47% | 7% | 7% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.3 | 71% | 62% | 9% | 11% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Marcedes LewisTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.9 | 32% | 15% | 3% | 9% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Khari BlasingameRB | 1.4 | −0.4 | 17% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Jesper HorstedTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Brian HoyerQB · Starter QB | 1.2 | −9.8 | 78% | — | 0% | — | 17/32, 129 yd, 2 INT |
| Velus JonesRB | 1.0 | −0.1 | 11% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | −1.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 89% | 97% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trent TaylorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jakob JohnsonRB | 0.0 | — | 25% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeAndre CarterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Nathan PetermanQB | -0.4 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:12) 2-D.Carlson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.
Q1 10:12 · Raiders · 4th & 4 at CHI 23 · gained nothing · -4.09 EP · −9.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 93 yards from the CHI 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Bears6Raiders0Bears7Raiders0Bears13Raiders0Bears14Raiders3Bears14Raiders3Bears20Raiders3Bears21Raiders6Bears21Raiders6Bears24Raiders6Bears30Raiders12Bears30Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hoyer | 17/32 | 129 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −13.5 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 10/13 | 75 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 | −2.1 |
| Zamir White | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 27% | −5.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 13 | 50 | 1 | 29% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Spillane | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Moehrig | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Peters |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 21/29 | 162 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +5.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_07_LV_CHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Raiders closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 42 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| −1.2 |
| Zamir White | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +0.2 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +3.0 |
| Michael Mayer | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −6.1 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2% | −0.2 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Epps | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Long | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Koonce | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Masterson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bilal Nichols | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 2 | +6.8 |
| Darrynton Evans | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 | −2.8 |
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | +2.4 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +1.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Nathan Peterman | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore | 8 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 31% | +1.7 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 17% | +1.2 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 17% | +2.4 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 10% | +1.9 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 10% | −0.4 |
| Khari Blasingame | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
| Travis Homer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.1 |
| Velus Jones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquan Brisker | 8 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Gordon | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Justin Jones | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Elijah Hicks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Cole | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
