2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Miami Dolphins
17
Philadelphia EaglesWinner
31
Philadelphia Eagles 31–17. Biggest swing: Q3 4:08, MIA +22% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 4:08MIA +22% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 4:32MIA +19% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at PHI 23.
- Q4 · 11:33MIA +11% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 1. 2-D.Slay to PHI 17 for 16 yards (74-L.Eichenberg).
- Q1 · 11:09PHI +10% win prob(11:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at MIA 30 for 22 yards (8-J.Holland).
How the points landed
Scoring summary
- Q1 · 7:57PHI Field goal
(7:57) 4-J.Elliott 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: MIA 0 — PHI 3 - Q1 · 1:03MIA Field goal
(1:03) 7-J.Sanders 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PHI 3 - Q2 · 11:31PHI Touchdown
(11:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PHI 10 - Q2 · 3:20PHI Touchdown
(3:20) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 3 — PHI 17 - Q2 · 0:45MIA Touchdown
(:45) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 10 — PHI 17 - Q3 · 4:08MIA Touchdown
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — PHI 17 - Q3 · 0:20PHI Touchdown
(:20) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — PHI 24 - Q4 · 4:50PHI Touchdown
(4:50) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: MIA 17 — PHI 31
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Dolphins | Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 48 | 65 |
| Total yards | 244 | 359 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 5.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.15 | 0.11 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% | 46% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 75% | 55% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.14 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.17 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/11 | 4/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 12 | 23 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 3 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · PHI
23/31, 279 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.2 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
23/32, 216 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | PHI 23 | 13 | 66 | 7:06 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | MIA | MIA 25 | 7 | 18 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 3 | PHI | PHI 31 | 3 | -8 | 0:48 | Fumble | |
| 4 | MIA | PHI 23 | 7 | 11 | 3:25 | Field goal +3 | |
| 5 | PHI | PHI 39 | 11 | 46 | 4:34 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | MIA | MIA 34 | 5 | 7 | 1:26 | Punt | |
| 7 | PHI | PHI 20 | 13 | 75 | 6:49 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 28 | 10 | 77 | 2:31 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | PHI | PHI 25 | 2 | -10 | 0:39 | End of half | |
| 10 | MIA | MIA 27 | 10 | 38 | 4:48 | Punt | |
| 11 | PHI | PHI 5 | 6 | 18 | 3:00 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIA | MIA 36 | 6 | 43 | 3:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | PHI | PHI 21 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 14 | PHI | PHI 25 | 10 | 75 | 3:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 31 | 9 | 50 | 3:54 | Interception | |
| 16 | PHI | PHI 17 | 14 | 78 | 6:35 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 0 | 1:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | PHI | MIA 25 | 5 | 19 | 3:19 | End of game |
7 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
Box score
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/32 | 216 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3.8 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 15 | 88 | 1 | 47% | 0.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 19% | 6.8 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 9% | 0.8 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | -1.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | -6.2 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | 0.0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -1.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Long Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eli Apple | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeShon Elliott | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Philadelphia Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/31 | 279 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 1 | 1.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 | -2.8 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 15 | 137 | 1 | 50% | 0.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 77 | 1 | 17% | 8.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 17% | 2.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | -0.7 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Edmunds | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sydney Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- PHI -3
- Closing total
- 52
- MIA moneyline
- +130
- PHI moneyline
- -155
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 52; the game landed 48 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lincoln Financial Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 55°F, wind 17 mph
- Referee
- Brad Allen
- Rest
- MIA 7 days · PHI 7 days
- Coaches
- Mike McDaniel vs Nick Sirianni
Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.