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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 7
It turned at Q3 4:08, 1st and 10, on Jerome Baker — 21.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Philadelphia Eagles 31–17. Biggest swing: Q3 4:08, Dolphins +21.9% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:08 · 1st and 10
Jerome Baker
Dolphins
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
A.J. Brown's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:20 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
A.J. Brown14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+717–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Dolphinscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 48 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Eagles’s 65 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
PHI's blitz rate sent, 11.1%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent, 41.7%, is past their previous high of 36.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Dolphins2.5 ptsright on their number · +3.5 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.49× that swing) · 48 snaps
Eagles1.8 ptsright on their number · +3.3 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 82%
Tendencies room →Dolphins65.7%leaned — passed early · +14.3 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 35 early downs
Eagles56.0%right on their number · −0.8 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 46%
Tendencies room →Dolphins16.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Eagles36.1%leaned — faked the run · +14.2 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23% to 133%
Fourth Down room →Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 55.2%.
Eagles80.0%leaned — went for it · +20.8 vs their 59.2%, and they swing ±17.8 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 52%
Tendencies room →Dolphins41.7%leaned — sent pressure · +13.4 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.43× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Eagles11.1%leaned — sat back · −10.2 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 40%
Tendencies room →Dolphins13.9%inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Eagles13.9%right on their number · +0.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
PHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.1%, 14.2 points above their season mean of 21.9% and 1.8 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
23/31, 279 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.2 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
23/32, 216 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-3.8 expected points added · +6.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 10.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.7 | +4.6 | 82% | 89% | 50% | 66% | 10/15, 137 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.8 | +1.4 | 78% | 89% | 47% | 38% | 11/15, 88 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 23.3 | +3.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/31, 279 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 11 car, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.7 | +10.8 | 79% | 86% | 17% | 10% | 5/5, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Featured Receiver | 12.3 | +3.5 | 45% | 44% | 19% | 19% | 6/6, 63 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 10.5 | −1.2 | 68% | 72% | 10% | 0% | 15 car, 62 yd · 3/3, 13 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 10.3 | −2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/32, 216 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -3 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +0.8 | 96% | 100% | 17% | 25% | 4/5, 49 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB | 7.6 | +0.2 | 32% | 28% | 0% | — | 8 car, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.8 | +1.4 | 59% | 58% | 9% | 25% | 2/3, 48 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB · Bell Cow Back | 6.1 | −4.6 | 53% | 42% | 9% | 7% | 9 car, 45 yd · 1/3, 6 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.9 | 59% | 67% | 6% | 3% | 1/2, 7 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 1.4 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 1.3 | −3.0 | 37% | 39% | 6% | 7% | 2 car, 3 yd · 1/2, 0 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.1 | 22% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 29% | 22% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Boston ScottRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 57% | 64% | 3% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:08 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 21 · gained nothing · -7.92 EP · −23.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Dolphins0
Eagles3How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the sack was on the quarterback, the ball was not catchable.
Dolphins3Eagles3Dolphins3Eagles9Dolphins3Eagles10Dolphins3Eagles16Dolphins3Eagles17Dolphins9Eagles17Dolphins10Eagles17How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Dolphins16Eagles17Dolphins17Eagles17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Dolphins17Eagles23Dolphins17Eagles24How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Dolphins17Eagles30Dolphins17Eagles31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Dolphins at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 23/32 | 216 | 1 | 1 | 3 | −3.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 15 | 88 | 1 | 47% | +0.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Baker | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bradley Chubb | 5 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/31 | 279 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_07_MIA_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 52; the game landed 48 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -3 |
| -3.0 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| +6.8 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Braxton Berrios | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −1.1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −6.2 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.6 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Long Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eli Apple | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeShon Elliott | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 1 | −2.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 15 | 137 | 1 | 50% | +0.3 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 5 | 77 | 1 | 17% | +8.1 |
| DeVonta Smith | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 | 17% | +2.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 10% | −0.7 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Edmunds | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Haason Reddick | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Slay | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Sydney Brown | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Milton Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Bradberry | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
