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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
DolphinsMiami17
BY 14final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia31
Miami Dolphins 17 at Philadelphia Eagles 31. Final.
Eagles -3 ✓U 52 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Philadelphia Eagles 31, Dolphins 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 4:08, 1st and 10, on Jerome Baker — 21.9 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:08 · 1st and 10
Jerome Baker
Dolphins
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eagles closed -3 and covered, winning by 14.
Philadelphia Eagles 31–17. Biggest swing: Q3 4:08, Dolphins +21.9% win probability on one snap.
21.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen HurtsDolphinsQ1 4:32(4:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at PHI 23.
18.7pts
Darius SlayEaglesQ4 11:33(11:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 1. 2-D.Slay to PHI 17 for 16 yards (74-L.Eichenberg).
11.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Dolphins149 of 158 plays carry both curves
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −21.9 for EaglesExpected points −7.92 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 105
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:08MIA +22% win prob(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:32MIA +19% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 22 for -11 yards (2-B.Chubb). FUMBLES (2-B.Chubb) [15-J.Phillips], RECOVERED by MIA-94-C.Wilkins at PHI 23.
4th · 11:33MIA +11% win prob(11:33) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right intended for 31-R.Mostert INTERCEPTED by 2-D.Slay at PHI 1. 2-D.Slay to PHI 17 for 16 yards (74-L.Eichenberg).
1st · 11:09PHI +10% win prob(11:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert pushed ob at MIA 30 for 22 yards (8-J.Holland).
2nd · 3:41PHI +10% win prob(3:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown to MIA 1 for 32 yards (34-P.Nickerson).
2nd · 0:45PHI +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Brown's 14-yard touchdown catch with 0:20 left in the 3rd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st7:57Jake Elliott·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+30–3
1st1:03Jason Sanders·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+33–3
Eagles ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Dolphins: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.11Eagles: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Dolphins: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.12Eagles: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Dolphins: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.09Eagles: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 48 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Eagles’s 65 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 2, Eagles 6.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's blitz rate sent, 11.1%, was the lowest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 13.8% in week 3.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 6.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
MIA's blitz rate sent, 41.7%, is past their previous high of 36.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Eagles13.9%
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NotePHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 36.1%, 14.2 points above their season mean of 21.9% and 1.8 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass−23% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 55-J.Baker (4-K.Kohou) at PHI 22. 55-J.Baker for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:08 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at PHI 21 · gained nothing · -7.92 EP · −23.3% win probability
147 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 158 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 147 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 153. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 83 yards from the PHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
158 of 158 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
158
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
44%
Yards
599
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.1665%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22-0.2395%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0518%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.5143%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.5673%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
158 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
158 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Dolphins0Eagles3
Field goal14 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Dolphins 6
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 43
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the sack was on the quarterback, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 33
Dolphins3Eagles3
Field goal8 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Eagles 6
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Eagles 46
2nd quarter43 plays
Dolphins3Eagles9
Dolphins3Eagles10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 19
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 34 to the Dolphins 41
Dolphins3Eagles16
Dolphins3Eagles17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Dolphins 1
Dolphins9Eagles17
Dolphins10Eagles17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 28 to the Eagles 25
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Eagles 42
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Eagles 23
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Eagles 21
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Dolphins16Eagles17
Touchdown1 play
Dolphins17Eagles17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Dolphins17Eagles23
Dolphins17Eagles24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Dolphins 14
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Eagles 24
Dolphins17Eagles30
Dolphins17Eagles31
Touchdown17 plays, from the Eagles 17 to the Dolphins 3
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 6
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
