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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:41 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 7
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 10, on Tutu Atwell — 15.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Rams +15.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 10
Tutu Atwell
Rams
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 16 on third down, against Steelers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Najee Harris's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 7:23 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Tutu Atwell31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Stafford · kick no good, wide left+63–97 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryRams
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 52 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Rams 2.
Rams outgained Steelers 356-306 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
LA's pass rate over expected, −14.6 pts, is past their previous low of −7.6 pts in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
LA's blitz rate sent turned over: 4.3% in week 6 against 32.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-3.1 ptsright on their number · +3.0 vs their -6.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 52 snaps
Rams-14.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.6 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 12% to 84%
Tendencies room →Steelers46.2%right on their number · −1.9 vs their 48.1%, and they swing ±14.1 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 39 early downs
Rams43.5%inside their normal wobble · −10.0 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 40%
Tendencies room →Steelers14.3%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Rams9.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −8.8 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 106%
Fourth Down room →Steelers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 28.2%.
Rams0.0%leaned — took the kick · −33.6 vs their 33.6%, and they swing ±28.5 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 58%
Tendencies room →Steelers36.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 28.6%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams32.1%right on their number · +3.9 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 29%
Tendencies room →Steelers12.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams25.0%off script — got home · +11.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
LA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.6 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 2.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
14/29, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-2.5 expected points added · -19.7% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
17/25, 230 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
0.6 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jaylen Warren banked 4.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee HarrisRB · Committee Back | 15.8 | +2.2 | 58% | 46% | 13% | 0% | 14 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 15 yd |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.7 | +3.3 | 90% | 100% | 35% | 64% | 5/8, 107 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 15.2 | +0.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/25, 230 yd · 8 car, 0 yd, 1 TD |
| Diontae JohnsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.9 | +3.0 | 66% | 86% | 26% | 29% | 5/6, 79 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | 10.1 | +4.1 | 46% | 54% | 9% | 0% | 6 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, -1 yd |
| Connor HeywardRB · Receiving Back | 4.3 | −1.4 | 86% | 96% | 13% | 12% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Allen RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | −0.1 | 64% | 54% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Calvin AustinWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.1 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Godwin IgwebuikeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at LA 31. 90-T.Watt to LA 7 for 24 yards (17-P.Nacua).
Q3 14:54 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 26 · gained nothing · -7.25 EP · −15.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers3
Rams0How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Steelers3Rams3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Steelers3Rams9How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Steelers9Rams9Steelers10Rams9Steelers10Rams15Steelers10Rams17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Steelers16Rams17Steelers17Rams17How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Steelers23Rams17Steelers24Rams17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 17/25 | 230 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 53 | 3.8 | 1 | −0.5 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Calvin Austin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 8 | 107 | 0 | 35% | +3.8 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 6 | 79 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Holcomb | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damontae Kazee |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 14/29 | 231 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −2.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_07_PIT_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Kenny Pickett | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | +0.4 |
| 26% |
| +4.3 |
| Connor Heyward | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 13% | +0.9 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | −0.3 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Montravius Adams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Herbig | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keanu Neal | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Darrell Henderson | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 | −2.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 8 | 12 | 154 | 0 | 44% | +5.9 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 7% | +3.4 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 26% | −6.8 |
| Tyler Higbee | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11% | +0.4 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7% | −0.2 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Hoecht | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cobie Durant | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quentin Lake | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russ Yeast | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
