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Pittsburgh Steelers 24 at Los Angeles Rams 17. Final.
Rams -3.5 upsetU 44 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Rams 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:25, 2nd and 10, on Tutu Atwell — 15.3 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:25 · 2nd and 10
Tutu Atwell
Rams
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, Rams +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Puka NacuaRamsQ2 8:12(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to PIT 29 for 22 yards (24-J.Porter, 23-D.Kazee).
10.7pts
T.J. WattSteelersQ3 14:54(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at LA 31. 90-T.Watt to LA 7 for 24 yards (17-P.Nacua).
14.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Steelers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 16 on third down, against Steelers at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 6 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Rams at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Steelers157 of 165 plays carry both curves
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.3 for RamsExpected points +4.03 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 77
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:25LA +15% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:54PIT +15% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at LA 31. 90-T.Watt to LA 7 for 24 yards (17-P.Nacua).
2nd · 8:12LA +11% win prob(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to PIT 29 for 22 yards (24-J.Porter, 23-D.Kazee).
4th · 15:00LA +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 18-D.Johnson ran ob at LA 18 for 39 yards (0-B.Young).
4th · 13:54LA +10% win prob(13:54) 30-J.Warren left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:40PIT +10% win prob(3:40) 8-B.Maher 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
3rd · 10:44
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Najee Harris's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 7:23 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd14:56Chris Boswell·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+33–0
2nd6:00Brett Maher·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–3
2nd0:25Tutu Atwell·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · kick no good, wide left+63–9
4th7:23Najee Harris·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+724–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryRams
Steelers4–4Rams
306Total yards356
5.9Yards per play5.7
52%Success rate41%
33%Third-down rate56%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays10
16First downs17
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Steelers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Steelers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Rams: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.01Steelers: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.02Rams: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Steelers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.06Rams: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 52 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Rams’s 63 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Rams 2.
NoteRams outgained Steelers 356-306 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, was the highest of the 26 team-games charted in week 7 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.7% in week 6.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
LA's blitz rate sent turned over: 4.3% in week 6 against 32.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Rams25.0%
off script — got home · +11.6 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 11.6 points above their season mean of 13.4% and 2.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
65Dan MooreT · Every snap100%59 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%59 snaps
8Kenny PickettQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
61Mason ColeC · Every snap100%59 snaps
78James DanielsG · Every snap100%59 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time90%53 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Full-time86%51 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
11Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation64%38 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational46%27 snaps
—Rodney WilliamsTE · Situational19%11 snaps
19Calvin AustinWR · Situational12%7 snaps
39Minkah FitzpatrickFS · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 4
Darius RushCBBreiden FehokoNTMason RudolphQBDylan CookT
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at LA 31. 90-T.Watt to LA 7 for 24 yards (17-P.Nacua).
Q3 14:54 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 26 · gained nothing · -7.25 EP · −15.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
656
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56+0.0050%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2055%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2252%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4257%
Steelers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Steelers 41
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Rams 42
No good9 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Steelers 34
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Rams 27
2nd quarter45 plays
Steelers3Rams0
Field goal2 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 48
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 20
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Steelers3Rams3
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Steelers 23
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Steelers3Rams9
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Steelers 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Steelers9Rams9
Steelers10Rams9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 7 to the Rams 1
Steelers10Rams15
Steelers10Rams17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Steelers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 33
No good13 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Steelers 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Steelers 41 to the Steelers 44
4th quarter43 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers16Rams17
Steelers17Rams17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 43 to the Rams 13
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 32
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers23Rams17
Steelers24Rams17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Rams 3
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 43
The period ended14 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Rams 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
