2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · SoFi Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -3.5 upsetU 44 ✓DomeRams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:25, LA +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:25PIT 3 — LA 9LA ball · 2nd & 10LA 67%

(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:25LA +15% win prob(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:54PIT +15% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at LA 31. 90-T.Watt to LA 7 for 24 yards (17-P.Nacua).
Q2 · 8:12LA +11% win prob(8:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 17-P.Nacua to PIT 29 for 22 yards (24-J.Porter, 23-D.Kazee).
Q4 · 15:00LA +11% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 18-D.Johnson ran ob at LA 18 for 39 yards (0-B.Young).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:56PIT Field goal
(14:56) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — LA 0
Q2 · 6:00LA Field goal
(6:00) 8-B.Maher 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — LA 3
Q2 · 0:25LA Touchdown
(:25) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 5-T.Atwell for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: PIT 3 — LA 9
Q3 · 13:23PIT Touchdown
(13:23) 8-K.Pickett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 10 — LA 9
Q3 · 9:00LA Touchdown
(9:00) (No Huddle) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: PIT 10 — LA 17
Q4 · 13:54PIT Touchdown
(13:54) 30-J.Warren left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — LA 17
Q4 · 7:23PIT Touchdown
(7:23) 22-N.Harris up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 24 — LA 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Rams
Offensive plays	52	63
Total yards	306	356 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	52% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	54%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.01 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	4/12	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Rams outgained Steelers 356–306 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

14/29, 231 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.5 expected points added · -19.7% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Kenny PickettQB

17/25, 230 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Royce FreemanRB

12 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Darrell HendersonRB

18 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

-2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

8/12 for 154 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

George PickensWR

5/8 for 107 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	3	1:22	Punt
2	LA	LA 37	6	16	2:55	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 21	7	27	3:15	Punt
4	LA	LA 6	9	60	3:53	Missed field goal
5	PIT	PIT 43	8	37	3:44	Field goal +3
6	LA	LA 25	8	29	3:41	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 19	4	1	1:03	Punt
8	LA	LA 39	8	33	4:11	Field goal +3
9	PIT	PIT 25	7	24	2:10	Punt
10	LA	LA 12	9	88	3:29	Touchdown +6
11	PIT	PIT 14	2	0	0:17	End of half
12	LA	LA 26	2	0	0:16	Interception
13	PIT	LA 7	4	7	1:25	Touchdown +7
14	LA	LA 25	11	72	4:22	Touchdown +8
15	PIT	PIT 25	5	10	1:41	Punt
16	LA	LA 29	11	38	5:54	Missed field goal
17	PIT	PIT 41	6	59	2:33	Touchdown +7
18	LA	LA 25	5	7	1:13	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 20	11	90	5:16	Touchdown +7
20	LA	LA 25	7	13	1:52	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 14	10	48	5:28	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kenny Pickett	17/25	230	0	0	2	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Najee Harris	14	53	3.8	1	-0.5
Jaylen Warren	6	32	5.3	1	1.1
Calvin Austin	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6
Kenny Pickett	8	0	0.0	1	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
George Pickens	5	8	107	35%	3.8
Diontae Johnson	5	6	79	26%	4.3
Connor Heyward	2	3	23	13%	0.9
Najee Harris	3	3	15	13%	0.9
Allen Robinson	1	1	7	4%	-0.3
Jaylen Warren	1	2	-1	9%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	5	0.0
Cole Holcomb	2	5	0.0
Damontae Kazee	4	3	0.0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	2	1.0
Montravius Adams	2	1	0.0
Nick Herbig	3	0	1.0
Kwon Alexander	1	2	0.0
Keanu Neal	3	0	0.0
Elandon Roberts	3	0	0.0
Alex Highsmith	2	0	0.0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	14/29	231	1	1	2	-2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Royce Freeman	12	66	5.5	0	0.7
Darrell Henderson	18	61	3.4	1	-2.6
Matthew Stafford	1	8	8.0	0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	8	12	154	0	44%	5.9
Tutu Atwell	1	2	31	1	7%	3.4
Cooper Kupp	2	7	29	0	26%	-6.8
Tyler Higbee	1	3	7	0	11%	0.4
Darrell Henderson	1	2	5	0	7%	-0.2
Brycen Hopkins	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Michael Hoecht	4	3	2.0	0
Jordan Fuller	3	2	0.0	0
Cobie Durant	4	1	0.0	1
Quentin Lake	3	2	0.0	0
Russ Yeast	1	4	0.0	0
Christian Rozeboom	2	2	0.0	1
Ahkello Witherspoon	3	1	0.0	0
Jonah Williams	1	1	0.0	0
Byron Young	2	0	0.0	0
Puka Nacua	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -3.5
Closing total: 44
PIT moneyline: +145
LA moneyline: -175

Rams closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 41 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: PIT 14 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Sean McVay