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2023 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 23, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco17
BY 5final margin
VikingsMinnesota22
San Francisco 49ers 17 at Minnesota Vikings 22. Final.
49ers -7 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 7
Minnesota Vikings 22, 49ers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:34, 2nd and 10, on Camryn Bynum — 32.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:34 · 2nd and 10
Camryn Bynum
Vikings
(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
U 44.5 ✓
Dome
49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:34, Vikings +32.4% win probability on one snap.
32.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan AddisonVikingsQ2 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
28.3pts
Greg Joseph49ersQ4 1:16(1:16) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
22.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 8 chunk plays, against 49ers at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.30 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on 49ers153 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
Swing +32.4 for VikingsExpected points +2.23 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 8 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:34SF +32% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
2nd · 0:16MIN +28% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:16SF +22% win prob(1:16) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
4th · 5:36SF +19% win prob(5:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 30. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 30 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).
4th · 0:47MIN +14% win prob(:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 3-R.McCloud to MIN 40 for 11 yards (23-A.Booth; 22-H.Smith).
3rd · 6:02MIN +12% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Addison's 20-yard touchdown catch with 4:52 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
3rd0:24Greg Joseph·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+314–22
4th13:26Jake Moody·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+317–22
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryVikings
49ers1–7Vikings
326Total yards453
6.4Yards per play7.1
57%Success rate42%
56%Third-down rate62%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays8
19First downs21
1Sacks taken0
4Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.0849ers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.16Vikings: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.3049ers: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.30Vikings: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.3049ers: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.13Vikings: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 51 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Vikings’s 64 at 69%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
MIN's pass rate over expected, +10.8 pts, is past their previous high of +8.9 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.1 pts in week 6 against +1.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 6 against 9.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Vikings9.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteMIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.8 pts, 8.6 points above their season mean of 2.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Purdy pass−24% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
Q4 0:34 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at MIN 40 · gained nothing · -2.23 EP · −24.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 89 yards from the MIN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
43%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.4179%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20+0.1980%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1363%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.2838%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10-0.3870%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.1120%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 48 to the Vikings 15
49ers0Vikings6
49ers0Vikings7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the 49ers 20
The period ended11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 22
2nd quarter46 plays
No good2 plays
49ers0Vikings10
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the 49ers 2
49ers6Vikings10
49ers7Vikings10
Touchdown18 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
49ers7Vikings16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 40
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 36
49ers7Vikings19
Field goal13 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the 49ers 1
How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
49ers13Vikings19
49ers14Vikings19
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Vikings 35
49ers14Vikings22
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the 49ers 36
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
49ers17Vikings22
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the Vikings 37
Punt9 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the 49ers 42
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Vikings 49
The period ended14 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the 49ers 32
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and seven backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Vikings 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -7
Closing total
44.5
49ers moneyline
-325
Vikings moneyline
+260
49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
49ers 8 days · Vikings 8 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Kevin O'Connell
2nd · 9:05
MIN +12% win prob
(9:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 31-C.Akers to SF 2 for 30 yards (99-J.Kinlaw, 2-D.Lenoir). MIN-87-T.Hockenson was injured during the play.
4th · 6:18MIN +10% win prob(6:18) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to MIN 49 for 2 yards (97-H.Phillips; 94-D.Lowry).
