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Game Center
2023 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 23, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:34, 2nd and 10, on Camryn Bynum — 32.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:34, Vikings +32.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:34 · 2nd and 10
Camryn Bynum
Vikings
(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
32.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Vikings won this one — 8 chunk plays, against 49ers at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — -0.13 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.30 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jordan Addison's 20-yard touchdown catch with 4:52 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Jordan Addison20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk CousinsLead never changed again+70–7Jordan Addison60-yd TD catch60-yard touchdown catchfrom Kirk Cousins · kick no good, wide right+67–168 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 51 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Vikings’s 64 at 69%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Vikings 4.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's pass rate over expected, +10.8 pts, is past their previous high of +8.9 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
SF's early-down pass rate, 65.9%, is past their previous high of 56.1% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 6 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 7.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.9 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
MIN's blitz rate sent, 34.4%, is past their previous low of 40.5% in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.1 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
SF's pass rate over expected turned over: −10.1 pts in week 6 against +1.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.5 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 6 against 9.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers1.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their -2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 51 snaps
Vikings10.8 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their 2.2 pts, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 64 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 23% to 89%
Tendencies room →49ers65.9%leaned — passed early · +15.7 vs their 50.2%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 41 early downs
Vikings62.7%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 59.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 50%
Tendencies room →49ers15.6%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 20.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.53× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings36.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 29.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 108%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Vikings0.0%leaned — took the kick · −36.9 vs their 36.9%, and they swing ±27.9 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 98%
Tendencies room →49ers27.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 20.9%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Vikings34.4%leaned — sat back · −18.1 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±17.1 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 32%
Tendencies room →49ers13.6%inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Vikings9.4%inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
MIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.8 pts, 8.6 points above their season mean of 2.2 pts and 1.8 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
35/45, 378 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
12.9 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected
Passing · SF
21/30, 272 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
8.2 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
7/10 for 123 yds, 2 TD
23% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added
Receiving · MIN
11/12 for 86 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Jordan Addison banked 10.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan AddisonWR · Featured Receiver | 31.3 | +10.2 | 74% | 71% | 23% | 39% | 7/10, 123 yd, 2 TD |
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.6 | +8.8 | 100% | 97% | 10% | 0% | 15 car, 45 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 51 yd, 1 TD |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 21.0 | −4.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 35/45, 378 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, -1 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Alpha Receiver | 19.6 | +1.3 | 84% | 89% | 28% | 20% | 11/12, 86 yd |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 13.0 | −0.2 | 96% | 94% | 24% | 36% | 1 car, 2 yd · 5/7, 78 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 12.8 | +1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 21/30, 272 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 5 car, 19 yd |
| Brandon PowellWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +0.6 | 61% | 69% | 12% | 17% | 1 car, 5 yd · 4/5, 64 yd |
| Brandon AiyukWR · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | +1.9 | 98% | 97% | 21% | 22% | 5/6, 57 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.4 | −4.0 | 74% | 76% | 31% | 29% | 5/9, 54 yd |
| K.J. OsbornWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.7 | +0.3 | 93% | 93% | 14% | 26% | 5/6, 47 yd |
| Cam AkersRB · Committee Back | 8.1 | −1.3 | 39% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 10 car, 31 yd · 2/3, 30 yd |
| Alexander MattisonRB | 6.2 | −7.0 | 53% | 56% | 7% | 0% | 8 car, 39 yd · 2/3, 3 yd |
| Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −0.9 | 36% | 39% | 10% | 14% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.4 | 43% | 33% | 5% | 1% | 2/2, 6 yd |
| Ty ChandlerRB | 2.2 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Trishton JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.3 | 16% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Johnny MundtTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 11% | 7% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Charlie WoernerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 24% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jordan MasonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Elijah MitchellRB | -0.1 | −0.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
Q4 0:34 · 49ers · 2nd & 10 at MIN 40 · gained nothing · -2.23 EP · −24.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 89 yards from the MIN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
49ers0
Vikings649ers0Vikings749ers0Vikings1049ers6Vikings1049ers7Vikings10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
49ers7Vikings1649ers7Vikings19How the play was built
A screen, a run-pass option, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
49ers13Vikings1949ers14Vikings1949ers14Vikings2249ers17Vikings22How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 21/30 | 272 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 1 | −6.0 |
| Brock Purdy | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.7 |
| George Kittle |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 24% | +4.3 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Warner | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 35/45 | 378 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +12.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_07_SF_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.6 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +4.6 |
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 31% | −2.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 3 | 3 | 51 | 1 | 10% | +4.0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.0 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Oren Burks | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nick Bosa | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Hargrave | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Clelin Ferrell | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Cam Akers | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 7 | 10 | 123 | 2 | 23% | +6.3 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 11 | 12 | 86 | 0 | 28% | +3.9 |
| Brandon Powell | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 | 12% | +4.8 |
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 14% | −0.1 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7% | +2.1 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 2% | +0.6 |
| Trishton Jackson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2% | −0.6 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7% | −3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camryn Bynum | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jordan Hicks | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Lowry | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Akayleb Evans | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Theo Jackson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
