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2023 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 23, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium

San Francisco 49ers

17

Minnesota VikingsWinner

22

SF -7 upsetU 44.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 22–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:34, SF +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIN ↑SF ↓
Q4 · 0:34SF 17 — MIN 22SF ball · 2nd & 10MIN 65%

(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:34SF +32% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left intended for 3-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 22. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 22 for no gain (3-R.McCloud).
  2. Q2 · 0:16MIN +28% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 1:16SF +22% win prob(1:16) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
  4. Q4 · 5:36SF +19% win prob(5:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep middle intended for 15-J.Jennings INTERCEPTED by 24-C.Bynum at MIN 30. 24-C.Bynum to MIN 30 for no gain (15-J.Jennings).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 4:52MIN Touchdown

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 0 — MIN 7
  2. Q2 · 7:36MIN Field goal

    (7:36) 1-G.Joseph 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: SF 0 — MIN 10
  3. Q2 · 1:04SF Touchdown

    (1:04) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 7 — MIN 10
  4. Q2 · 0:16MIN Touchdown

    (:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: SF 7 — MIN 16
  5. Q3 · 7:02MIN Field goal

    (7:02) 1-G.Joseph 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: SF 7 — MIN 19
  6. Q3 · 6:02SF Touchdown

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: SF 14 — MIN 19
  7. Q3 · 0:24MIN Field goal

    (:24) 1-G.Joseph 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: SF 14 — MIN 22
  8. Q4 · 13:26SF Field goal

    (13:26) 4-J.Moody 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: SF 17 — MIN 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric49ersVikings
Offensive plays5164
Total yards326453 (edge)
Yards per play6.47.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.080.16 (edge)
Success rate57% (edge)42%
Dropback rate63%69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.30 (edge)0.30
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.30-0.13 (edge)
Third downs5/98/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)48 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1921 (edge)
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers41 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

35/45, 378 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.9 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

21/30, 272 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

8.2 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Christian McCaffreyRB

15 att, 45 yds, 1 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

8 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

7/10 for 123 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

11/12 for 86 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 254191:25Interception
2SFMIN 485352:41Fumble
3MINMIN 1111896:06Touchdown +7
4SFSF 2511584:55Missed field goal
5MINMIN 3013877:20Field goal +3
6SFSF 2514806:32Touchdown +7
7MINMIN 257750:54Touchdown +6
8SFSF 25200:07End of half
9SFSF 258-43:15Fumble
10MINMIN 2111654:46Field goal +3
11SFSF 255751:05Touchdown +7
12MINMIN 1411555:34Field goal +3
13SFSF 327311:59Field goal +3
14MINMIN 289304:07Punt
15SFSF 207313:44Interception
16MINMIN 3010334:19Missed field goal
17SFSF 405200:46Interception
18MINMIN 22100:25End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brock Purdy21/302721218.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Christian McCaffrey15453.01-6.0
Brock Purdy5193.801.7
George Kittle122.000.6
Elijah Mitchell1-1-1.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
George Kittle5778024%4.3
Brandon Aiyuk5657021%4.6
Jauan Jennings5954031%-2.4
Christian McCaffrey3351110%4.0
Ray-Ray McCloud2320010%-1.0
Ross Dwelley111203%1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Fred Warner660.001
Dre Greenlaw620.000
Talanoa Hufanga620.000
Oren Burks500.000
Charvarius Ward310.012
Nick Bosa400.000
Deommodore Lenoir220.000
Javon Hargrave300.000
Isaiah Oliver300.000
Clelin Ferrell110.001

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins35/4537821012.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison8394.90-0.9
Cam Akers10313.10-1.3
Brandon Powell155.00-0.1
Kirk Cousins2-1-0.50-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jordan Addison710123223%6.3
T.J. Hockenson111286028%3.9
Brandon Powell4564012%4.8
K.J. Osborn5647014%-0.1
Cam Akers233007%2.1
Ty Chandler111202%0.6
Trishton Jackson11702%-0.6
Josh Oliver22605%-0.2
Alexander Mattison23307%-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Camryn Bynum620.022
Jordan Hicks240.001
Harrison Smith330.001
Josh Metellus230.000
Byron Murphy400.000
D.J. Wonnum220.000
Harrison Phillips120.000
Dean Lowry120.000
Akayleb Evans300.000
Theo Jackson110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SF -7
Closing total
44.5
SF moneyline
-325
MIN moneyline
+260

49ers closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 39 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
SF 8 days · MIN 8 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Kevin O'Connell