2023 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 22, 2023 · MetLife Stadium

Washington Commanders

New York GiantsWinner

WAS -3 upsetU 37 ✓Commanders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Giants 14–7. Biggest swing: Q4 1:01, WAS +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:01WAS 7 — NYG 14WAS ball · 4th & 5NYG 77%

(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:01WAS +21% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.
Q3 · 0:07NYG +15% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 16 for 31 yards (29-X.McKinney).
Q4 · 13:28WAS +14% win prob(13:28) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-L.Williams), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Q2 · 14:22NYG +13% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 12-D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 14:22NYG Touchdown
(14:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 12-D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — NYG 7
Q2 · 9:05NYG Touchdown
(9:05) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 26-S.Barkley for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — NYG 14
Q3 · 10:25WAS Touchdown
(10:25) 8-B.Robinson left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 7 — NYG 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Giants
Offensive plays	67	62
Total yards	273	360 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.23	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	36%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.27	0.13 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	1/15	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	15 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	4 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.23.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Tyrod TaylorQB

18/29, 279 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

22/42, 249 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-14.7 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

21 att, 77 yds, 0 TD

-7.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris RodriguezRB

7 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Darren WallerTE

7/8 for 98 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.5 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

6/9 for 90 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 25	5	-1	0:51	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 31	4	8	2:33	Punt
3	NYG	NYG 11	9	66	3:16	Missed field goal
4	WAS	WAS 32	4	4	0:55	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 11	4	9	1:17	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 38	5	15	2:17	Punt
7	NYG	NYG 12	9	98	4:33	Touchdown +7
8	WAS	WAS 38	5	-5	1:45	Punt
9	NYG	NYG 16	4	4	1:13	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 23	4	20	1:46	Interception
11	NYG	WAS 48	3	48	0:38	Touchdown +7
12	WAS	WAS 25	5	5	1:12	Punt
13	NYG	NYG 28	5	14	1:34	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 24	4	0	2:02	Punt
15	NYG	NYG 39	7	5	2:26	Punt
16	WAS	WAS 11	4	-1	0:43	Punt
17	NYG	NYG 32	3	13	0:59	End of half
18	WAS	WAS 25	5	6	1:51	Punt
19	WAS	NYG 21	7	21	2:48	Touchdown +7
20	NYG	NYG 25	8	20	2:40	Punt
21	WAS	WAS 21	6	31	2:12	Punt
22	NYG	NYG 20	4	9	1:26	Punt
23	WAS	WAS 17	4	13	1:37	Punt
24	NYG	NYG 21	4	8	1:20	Punt
25	WAS	WAS 10	8	71	2:43	Missed field goal
26	NYG	NYG 20	10	67	5:37	Fumble
27	WAS	WAS 8	17	85	6:50	Turnover on downs
28	NYG	NYG 7	3	0	0:56	End of game

3 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 98 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	22/42	249	0	1	6	-14.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Rodriguez	7	31	4.4	0	-1.0
Brian Robinson	8	23	2.9	1	-0.7
Sam Howell	2	15	7.5	0	1.2
Antonio Gibson	2	7	3.5	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	6	9	90	25%	5.2
Logan Thomas	4	6	51	17%	1.5
Jahan Dotson	5	8	43	22%	-4.3
Curtis Samuel	4	8	25	22%	-2.1
Antonio Gibson	2	2	24	6%	0.3
Byron Pringle	1	1	16	3%	1.5
Brian Robinson	0	1	0	3%	-0.5
John Bates	0	1	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Mayo	8	2	0.0	0
Montez Sweat	3	4	1.0	0
Jamin Davis	2	5	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	4	1	0.0	4
John Ridgeway	2	3	0.0	0
Chase Young	3	0	2.0	0
Khaleke Hudson	3	0	1.0	0
James Smith-Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	0	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	2	1	0.0	0

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	18/29	279	2	0	4	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Saquon Barkley	21	77	3.7	-7.2
Tyrod Taylor	8	25	3.1	0.1
Matt Breida	3	4	1.3	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	7	8	98	1	30%	7.5
Jalin Hyatt	2	5	75	0	19%	2.3
Saquon Barkley	3	4	41	1	15%	3.0
Wan'Dale Robinson	1	2	22	0	7%	0.4
Darius Slayton	1	2	22	0	7%	0.5
Isaiah Hodgins	2	4	13	0	15%	-1.1
Matt Breida	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.2
Sterling Shepard	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Okereke	5	4	0.0	0	1
Deonte Banks	5	2	0.0	1	1
Cordale Flott	3	3	0.0	0	0
Dexter Lawrence	2	4	2.0	0	0
Jason Pinnock	3	2	1.0	0	0
Micah McFadden	0	4	0.5	0	0
Kayvon Thibodeaux	1	3	1.5	0	0
Tre Hawkins	2	1	0.0	0	1
A'Shawn Robinson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Xavier McKinney	2	0	0.0	0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -3
Closing total: 37
WAS moneyline: -162
NYG moneyline: +136

Commanders closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 37; the game landed 21 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: WAS 7 days · NYG 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Brian Daboll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.