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DYNATYZE
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2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Commanders173 of 181 plays carry both curves
(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.
Swing +21.0 for GiantsExpected points +2.79 for GiantsThe model had Giants 5 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:01WAS +21% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.
3rd · 0:07NYG +15% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 16 for 31 yards (29-X.McKinney).
4th · 13:28WAS +14% win prob(13:28) 6-J.Slye 27 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-L.Williams), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
2nd · 14:22NYG +13% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 12-D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:18NYG +13% win prob(13:18) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to NYG 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 3-S.Shepard MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 21, RECOVERED by WAS-2-D.Brown at NYG 21.
4th · 2:00NYG +11% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to NYG 12 for 6 yards (25-D.Banks).
2nd · 9:05
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Darren Waller's 15-yard touchdown catch with 14:22 left in the 2nd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Commanders: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.27Commanders: −0.27 expected points added per play
+0.13Giants: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Commanders: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.31Giants: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 67 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Giants’s 62 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Giants 3.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 39.0 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
NYG's blitz rate sent turned over: 21.9% in week 6 against 61.2% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 18.6 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 25 pts
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Giants20.4%
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
NoteWAS's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 44.4%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 28.5% and 1.5 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Charles LenoT · Every snap100%69 snaps
71Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%69 snaps
76Samuel CosmiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Sam HowellQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
63Nick GatesC · Every snap100%69 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time88%61 snaps
1Jahan DotsonWR · Full-time84%58 snaps
77Saahdiq CharlesG · Heavy rotation68%47 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Heavy rotation68%47 snaps
87John BatesTE · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
4Curtis SamuelWR · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
8Brian RobinsonRB · Rotational49%34 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Rotational38%26 snaps
53Ricky StrombergC · Rotational32%22 snaps
85Cole TurnerTE · Situational20%14 snaps
2Dyami BrownWR · Situational16%11 snaps
23Chris RodriguezRB · Situational13%9 snaps
3Byron PringleWR · Situational6%4 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Christian HolmesCBEfe ObadaDEK.J. HenryDEChris PaulGTrenton ScottTCurtis HodgesTEMitchell TinsleyWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Jacoby BrissettQB
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
60Marcus McKethanT · Every snap100%68 snaps
79Tyre PhillipsT · Every snap100%68 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%68 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%68 snaps
68Ben BredesonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
2Tyrod TaylorQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
86Darius SlaytonWR · Full-time84%57 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time84%57 snaps
12Darren WallerTE · Full-time82%56 snaps
13Jalin HyattWR · Heavy rotation71%48 snaps
17Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation60%41 snaps
82Daniel BellingerTE · Heavy rotation53%36 snaps
18Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational29%20 snaps
31Matt BreidaRB · Situational16%11 snaps
3Sterling ShepardWR · Situational15%10 snaps
0Parris CampbellWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
John Michael SchmitzCAdoree' JacksonCBJordon RileyNTDaniel JonesQBMatt PeartTAndrew ThomasTEvan NealT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Howell pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Dotson.
Q4 1:01 · Commanders · 4th & 5 at NYG 7 · gained nothing · -2.79 EP · −15.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 88 yards from the NYG 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
40%
Yards
629
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2271%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1349%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.1062%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.5090%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.1550%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 34
No good9 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Commanders 23
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Commanders 36
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 20
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Giants 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Commanders 8
2nd quarter55 plays
Commanders0Giants6
Commanders0Giants7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 5
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Commanders 41
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 21
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 23 to the Commanders 43
Commanders0Giants13
Commanders0Giants14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 32
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Commanders 45
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Commanders 47
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 20
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 40
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 31
Commanders6Giants14
Commanders7Giants14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 4
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 29
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 17 to the Commanders 25
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Giants 42
4th quarter41 plays
No good4 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 9
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Commanders 10
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Turnover on downs20 plays, from the Commanders 8 to the Giants 7
The period ended6 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
