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2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Nissan Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

23

Tennessee TitansWinner

28

ATL -2.5 upsetO 35 ✓

Tennessee Titans 28–23. Biggest swing: Q1 13:06, ATL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TEN ↑ATL ↓
Q1 · 13:06ATL 0 — TEN 0TEN ball · 1st & 10ATL 56%

(13:06) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 29, touched at TEN 29, RECOVERED by ATL-93-C.Campbell at TEN 28.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:06ATL +16% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 7-M.Willis FUMBLES (Aborted) at TEN 29, touched at TEN 29, RECOVERED by ATL-93-C.Campbell at TEN 28.
  2. Q3 · 1:46TEN +14% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 8:26ATL +12% win prob(8:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder sacked at ATL 34 for -6 yards (98-J.Simmons). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons) [98-J.Simmons], touched at ATL 36, RECOVERED by TEN-2-A.Al-Shaair at ATL 33.
  4. Q1 · 2:37TEN +12% win prob(2:37) 8-W.Levis pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:51ATL Field goal

    (9:51) 6-Y.Koo 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — TEN 0
  2. Q1 · 2:37TEN Touchdown

    (2:37) 8-W.Levis pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — TEN 7
  3. Q2 · 5:32TEN Touchdown

    (5:32) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 3 — TEN 14
  4. Q3 · 12:11ATL Field goal

    (12:11) 6-Y.Koo 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 6 — TEN 14
  5. Q3 · 3:06ATL Field goal

    (3:06) 6-Y.Koo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 9 — TEN 14
  6. Q3 · 1:46TEN Touchdown

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 9 — TEN 21
  7. Q4 · 14:22ATL Touchdown

    (14:22) 7-B.Robinson left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 16 — TEN 21
  8. Q4 · 7:06TEN Touchdown

    (7:06) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-T.Graham]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 16 — TEN 28
  9. Q4 · 3:50ATL Touchdown

    (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 16-S.Miller for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-A.Key]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 23 — TEN 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsTitans
Offensive plays6564
Total yards343378 (edge)
Yards per play5.35.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.050.07 (edge)
Success rate42%42% (edge)
Dropback rate66%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.130.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)-0.05
Third downs4/155/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1616
Sacks taken62 (edge)
Turnovers11

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Will LevisQB

19/29, 238 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

5.9 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Taylor HeinickeQB

12/21, 175 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.0 expected points added · -1.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

22 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

11 att, 62 yds, 1 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

DeAndre HopkinsWR

4/6 for 128 yds, 3 TD

23% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

KhaDarel HodgeWR

3/3 for 75 yds, 0 TD

9% of team targets · 7.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TENTEN 255121:58Fumble
2ATLTEN 287233:15Field goal +3
3TENTEN 259194:01Punt
4ATLATL 154-41:26Punt
5TENTEN 395611:52Touchdown +7
6ATLATL 246212:35Punt
7TENTEN 136222:49Punt
8ATLATL 7420:51Punt
9TENTEN 32470:57Punt
10ATLATL 76291:59Fumble
11TENATL 336332:50Touchdown +7
12ATLATL 136272:10Punt
13TENTEN 226111:44Punt
14ATLATL 124-80:31Punt
15TENATL 43480:34Punt
16ATLATL 8100:28End of half
17ATLATL 258442:54Field goal +3
18TENTEN 2510334:58Punt
19ATLATL 2011594:06Field goal +3
20TENTEN 255751:25Touchdown +7
21ATLATL 257752:20Touchdown +7
22TENTEN 25582:02Punt
23ATLATL 20400:24Punt
24TENTEN 1510804:52Touchdown +7
25ATLATL 2510663:13Touchdown +7
26TENTEN 27791:27Punt
27ATLATL 13490:49Turnover on downs
28TENATL 22301:30End of game

9 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Taylor Heinicke12/211751016.0
Desmond Ridder8/1271005-10.7
Jonnu Smith0/10000-0.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson11625.612.6
Tyler Allgeier8313.90-1.1
Desmond Ridder3268.701.3
Taylor Heinicke2147.000.1
Cordarrelle Patterson273.50-0.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
KhaDarel Hodge337509%7.7
Drake London5755021%1.3
Kyle Pitts3535015%2.1
Mack Hollins232709%1.3
Van Jefferson3524015%-0.6
Scott Miller221416%1.6
Jonnu Smith111303%0.0
MyCole Pruitt12306%-1.3
Bijan Robinson050015%-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Richie Grant530.001
Nate Landman340.000
Jessie Bates340.000
Dee Alford320.000
Kaden Elliss320.000
Jeff Okudah410.000
Lorenzo Carter400.000
A.J. Terrell210.001
Bud Dupree211.000
John FitzPatrick200.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Will Levis19/292384025.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry221014.602.0
Tyjae Spears3279.000.7
Will Levis7111.60-3.1
Chigoziem Okonkwo144.000.4
Malik Willis242.00-6.5
Amani Hooker122.002.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DeAndre Hopkins46128323%10.1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine123318%3.2
Kyle Philips3324012%-0.7
Chigoziem Okonkwo4523019%0.8
Derrick Henry4421015%1.3
Tyjae Spears349015%-1.7
Treylon Burks02008%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair640.000
Amani Hooker700.001
Elijah Molden250.000
Kristian Fulton240.001
Jack Gibbens321.000
Jeffery Simmons402.000
Eric Garror400.000
Denico Autry131.002
Harold Landry402.000
K'Von Wallace100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Closing total
35
ATL moneyline
-130
TEN moneyline
+110

Falcons closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 35; the game landed 51 — over by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
77°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
ATL 7 days · TEN 14 days
Coaches
Arthur Smith vs Mike Vrabel