2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · State Farm Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Arizona Cardinals

BAL -9.5 no coverO 44.5 ✓DomeRavens closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, BAL +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:00BAL 7 — ARI 7ARI ball · 2nd & 3BAL 73%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at ARI 47. 21-B.Stephens to ARI 43 for 4 yards (85-T.McBride).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:00BAL +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at ARI 47. 21-B.Stephens to ARI 43 for 4 yards (85-T.McBride).
Q1 · 8:42ARI +7% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 2-M.Brown [99-O.Oweh]. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.
Q1 · 13:57ARI +7% win prob(13:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 23 for -8 yards (92-J.Madubuike). PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
Q3 · 1:51BAL +6% win prob(1:51) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at ARI 24. 26-G.Stone ran ob at ARI 23 for 1 yard.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:08ARI Touchdown
(8:08) 9-J.Dobbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 0 — ARI 7
Q1 · 2:43BAL Touchdown
(2:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — ARI 7
Q2 · 0:25BAL Touchdown
(:25) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 14 — ARI 7
Q3 · 0:45BAL Touchdown
(:45) 35-G.Edwards left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 21 — ARI 7
Q4 · 9:32BAL Field goal
(9:32) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 24 — ARI 7
Q4 · 6:45ARI Touchdown
(6:45) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: BAL 24 — ARI 15
Q4 · 2:56BAL Touchdown
(2:56) 35-G.Edwards up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 31 — ARI 15
Q4 · 1:18ARI Touchdown
(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left to 2-M.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: BAL 31 — ARI 21
Q4 · 0:29ARI Field goal
(:29) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.
Score after this play: BAL 31 — ARI 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Cardinals
Offensive plays	59	72
Total yards	269	313 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.19
Success rate	46%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	-0.17
Third downs	4/11	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Cardinals outgained Ravens 313–269 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Joshua DobbsQB

25/37, 208 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-9.7 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

18/27, 157 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.0 expected points added · -0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

19 att, 80 yds, 3 TD

5.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Emari DemercadoRB

20 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-6.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

10/14 for 95 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Michael WilsonWR

4/6 for 58 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · -1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	14	52	6:55	Touchdown +7
2	BAL	BAL 25	12	66	5:27	Touchdown +7
3	ARI	ARI 25	7	31	2:41	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 45	7	20	3:02	Missed field goal
5	ARI	ARI 43	6	21	3:00	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	BAL 36	4	7	1:23	Punt
7	ARI	ARI 8	4	9	2:04	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 47	4	3	1:23	Punt
9	ARI	ARI 10	5	21	2:13	Interception
10	BAL	ARI 43	7	43	1:32	Touchdown +7
11	ARI	ARI 19	2	0	0:20	End of half
12	BAL	BAL 25	6	-2	2:29	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 24	6	-9	2:50	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 30	6	17	2:21	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 8	7	19	3:28	Punt
16	BAL	BAL 40	4	6	2:01	Punt
17	ARI	ARI 10	1	0	0:06	Interception
18	BAL	ARI 23	4	23	1:05	Touchdown +7
19	ARI	ARI 25	5	-7	1:24	Punt
20	BAL	BAL 33	8	42	4:49	Field goal +3
21	ARI	ARI 25	11	77	2:55	Touchdown +8
22	BAL	BAL 25	11	44	3:41	Touchdown +7
23	ARI	ARI 25	12	73	1:37	Touchdown +6
24	BAL	50	6	26	0:48	Field goal +3
25	BAL	ARI 48	2	0	0:26	End of game

9 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	18/27	157	1	0	4	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Gus Edwards	19	80	4.2	3	5.8
Rashod Bateman	1	18	18.0	0	2.5
Lamar Jackson	5	17	3.4	0	-2.0
Justice Hill	4	15	3.8	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justice Hill	4	4	40	0	15%	0.9
Mark Andrews	4	5	40	1	19%	6.1
Rashod Bateman	2	2	34	0	8%	1.5
Zay Flowers	5	7	19	0	27%	-3.8
Gus Edwards	2	2	14	0	8%	0.7
Isaiah Likely	1	1	10	0	4%	0.6
Odell Beckham	0	4	0	0	15%	-4.8
Nelson Agholor	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	7	3	0.0	0	0
Patrick Queen	7	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	8	1	0.0	0	1
Brandon Stephens	6	1	0.0	1	1
Michael Pierce	4	1	1.0	0	1
Malik Harrison	3	1	0.0	0	0
Geno Stone	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jadeveon Clowney	1	1	0.0	0	0
Nnamdi Madubuike	2	0	1.0	0	0
Travis Jones	2	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joshua Dobbs	25/37	208	2	2	2	-9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Emari Demercado	20	78	3.9	0	-6.9
Joshua Dobbs	6	26	4.3	1	2.8
Rondale Moore	2	11	5.5	0	0.8
Keaontay Ingram	2	9	4.5	0	0.1
Damien Williams	2	5	2.5	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	10	14	95	1	39%	1.3
Michael Wilson	4	6	58	0	17%	-1.0
Marquise Brown	6	9	33	1	25%	-2.4
Rondale Moore	2	3	10	0	8%	0.1
Keaontay Ingram	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Damien Williams	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.6
Emari Demercado	1	1	1	0	3%	-1.1
Zach Pascal	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jalen Thompson	4	2	0.0	1
Budda Baker	5	1	0.0	0
Kyzir White	4	2	0.0	0
Dante Stills	3	2	1.5	0
Antonio Hamilton	5	0	0.0	2
Jonathan Ledbetter	2	2	0.0	0
Josh Woods	1	3	0.0	0
Marco Wilson	3	0	0.0	0
Victor Dimukeje	1	2	0.5	0
B.J. Ojulari	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -9.5
Closing total: 44.5
BAL moneyline: -500
ARI moneyline: +380

Ravens closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 55 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tra Blake
Rest: BAL 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Jonathan Gannon