For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · State Farm Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore31
BY 7final margin
CardinalsArizona24
Baltimore Ravens 31 at Arizona Cardinals 24. Final.
Ravens -9.5 no coverO 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Baltimore Ravens 31, Cardinals 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:00, 2nd and 3, on Brandon Stephens — 8.3 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:00 · 2nd and 3
Brandon Stephens
Ravens
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at ARI 47. 21-B.Stephens to ARI 43 for 4 yards (85-T.McBride).
Dome
Ravens closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, Ravens +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joshua DobbsCardinalsQ1 13:57(13:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 23 for -8 yards (92-J.Madubuike). PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
6.7pts
Joshua DobbsCardinalsQ1 8:42(8:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 2-M.Brown [99-O.Oweh]. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.
7.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Ravens at 5 chunk plays.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Ravens174 of 183 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at ARI 47. 21-B.Stephens to ARI 43 for 4 yards (85-T.McBride).
Swing −8.3 for CardinalsExpected points −4.14 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 28 points higher than the market did.play 70
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00BAL +8% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at ARI 47. 21-B.Stephens to ARI 43 for 4 yards (85-T.McBride).
1st · 8:42ARI +7% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass incomplete deep right to 2-M.Brown [99-O.Oweh]. PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at BAL 19 - No Play.
1st · 13:57ARI +7% win prob(13:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs sacked at ARI 23 for -8 yards (92-J.Madubuike). PENALTY on BAL-14-K.Hamilton, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 31 - No Play.
3rd · 1:51BAL +6% win prob(1:51) 9-J.Dobbs pass short left intended for 85-T.McBride INTERCEPTED by 26-G.Stone at ARI 24. 26-G.Stone ran ob at ARI 23 for 1 yard.
2nd · 12:00BAL +6% win prob(12:00) 9-J.Tucker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-11-J.Stout.
1st · 4:39ARI +6% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman to ARI 22 for 29 yards (20-Ma.Wilson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Gus Edwards's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:25 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th0:29Matt Prater·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder B.Gillikin · snap A.Brewer+331–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryCardinals
Ravens3–6Cardinals
269Total yards313
4.6Yards per play4.3
46%Success rate47%
36%Third-down rate42%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
5Explosive plays6
17First downs21
4Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Cardinals ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Ravens: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.19Cardinals: −0.19 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Ravens: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Cardinals: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.27Ravens: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.17Cardinals: −0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 59 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 72 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteCardinals outgained Ravens 313-269 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +12.4 pts in week 7 against −1.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Cardinals15.6%
leaned — got home · +5.8 vs their 9.9%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 17.7 points above their season mean of 19.8% and 1.8 times their own 9.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
70Kevin ZeitlerG · Every snap100%65 snaps
76John SimpsonG · Every snap100%65 snaps
79Ronnie StanleyT · Every snap100%65 snaps
64Tyler LinderbaumC · Every snap100%65 snaps
8Lamar JacksonQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
78Morgan MosesT · Full-time83%54 snaps
4Zay FlowersWR · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
89Mark AndrewsTE · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
7Rashod BatemanWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
3Odell BeckhamWR · Heavy rotation57%37 snaps
42Patrick RicardFB · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
35Gus EdwardsRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
43Justice HillRB · Rotational48%31 snaps
15Nelson AgholorWR · Rotational42%27 snaps
88Charlie KolarTE · Situational22%14 snaps
65Patrick MekariG · Situational17%11 snaps
80Isaiah LikelyTE · Situational11%7 snaps
13Devin DuvernayWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Sam MustipherCJalyn Armour-DavisCBMarcus WilliamsFSSala Aumavae-LauluGJosh JohnsonQBKeaton MitchellRBTylan WallaceWR
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Dobbs pass−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Dobbs pass deep left intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 21-B.Stephens at ARI 47. 21-B.Stephens to ARI 43 for 4 yards (85-T.McBride).
Q2 2:00 · Cardinals · 2nd & 3 at ARI 31 · gained nothing · -4.14 EP · −10.5% win probability
172 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 85 yards from the BAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
580
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.1766%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.2326%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.2590%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0327%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.1850%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2380%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.350%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Ravens0Cardinals6
Ravens0Cardinals7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Ravens 1
Ravens6Cardinals7
Ravens7Cardinals7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Cardinals 5
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Ravens 44
2nd quarter43 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
No good7 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Cardinals 35
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Ravens 36
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 43
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 17
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Cardinals 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 31
Ravens13Cardinals7
Ravens14Cardinals7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 35
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 38
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Ravens 47
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 27
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 40 to the Ravens 46
Intercepted1 play
Ravens20Cardinals7
Ravens21Cardinals7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 7
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter63 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 18
Ravens24Cardinals7
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 33 to the Cardinals 30
Ravens24Cardinals13
Ravens24Cardinals15
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Ravens 12
Ravens30Cardinals15
Ravens31Cardinals15
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Cardinals 1
Ravens31Cardinals21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Ravens 1
Ravens31Cardinals24
Field goal6 plays, from midfield to the Ravens 24
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
