2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Levi's Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -4 upsetO 44 ✓49ers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 31–17. Biggest swing: Q3 0:12, CIN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 0:12CIN 17 — SF 10SF ball · 1st & 8CIN 52%

(:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 25-E.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 10. 57-G.Pratt pushed ob at CIN 19 for 9 yards (13-B.Purdy). Penalty on SF-65-A.Banks, Ineligible Downfield Pass, de

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 0:12CIN +24% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right intended for 25-E.Mitchell INTERCEPTED by 57-G.Pratt at CIN 10. 57-G.Pratt pushed ob at CIN 19 for 9 yards (13-B.Purdy). Penalty on SF-65-A.Banks, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
Q2 · 0:38CIN +12% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 81-I.Smith to SF 4 for -1 yards (26-I.Oliver, 94-C.Ferrell). FUMBLES (94-C.Ferrell), touched at SF 4, RECOVERED by SF-26-I.Oliver at SF 5.
Q4 · 13:17CIN +12% win prob(13:17) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle intended for 11-B.Aiyuk INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson at SF 33. 55-L.Wilson to SF 17 for 16 yards (85-G.Kittle).
Q2 · 7:08CIN +11% win prob(7:08) 2-E.McPherson 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:17CIN Touchdown
(8:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa]. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — SF 0
Q1 · 3:23SF Touchdown
(3:23) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 7 — SF 7
Q1 · 0:01CIN Touchdown
(:01) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 80-A.Iosivas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-7-C.Ward, Defensive Holding, declined. Penalty on SF-99-J.Kinlaw, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 14 — SF 7
Q2 · 2:48SF Field goal
(2:48) 4-J.Moody 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: CIN 14 — SF 10
Q3 · 11:14CIN Field goal
(11:14) 2-E.McPherson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.
Score after this play: CIN 17 — SF 10
Q4 · 13:08CIN Touchdown
(13:08) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 24 — SF 10
Q4 · 8:18SF Touchdown
(8:18) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 24 — SF 17
Q4 · 2:59CIN Touchdown
(2:59) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 31 — SF 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	49ers
Offensive plays	61	56
Total yards	401	460 (edge)
Yards per play	6.6	8.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	-0.03
Success rate	56% (edge)	54%
Dropback rate	62%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	3/7	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

49ers outgained Bengals 460–401 but lost the turnover battle 3–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

22/31, 365 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-2.9 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

28/32, 283 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

13.4 expected points added · +17.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

16 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Brock PurdyQB

6 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

9/11 for 149 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

5/9 for 109 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	5	8	2:11	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 15	11	80	4:38	Touchdown +7
3	SF	SF 25	10	75	4:52	Touchdown +7
4	CIN	CIN 42	8	58	3:19	Touchdown +7
5	SF	SF 14	5	4	1:30	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 20	11	33	6:27	Missed field goal
7	SF	SF 40	7	52	4:19	Field goal +3
8	CIN	CIN 25	10	71	2:13	Fumble
9	SF	SF 5	4	50	0:31	End of half
10	CIN	CIN 25	8	23	3:51	Field goal +3
11	SF	SF 25	7	37	2:47	Punt
12	CIN	CIN 19	4	8	2:13	Punt
13	SF	SF 24	9	68	6:05	Interception
14	CIN	CIN 19	5	36	1:47	Fumble
15	SF	SF 20	1	0	0:09	Interception
16	CIN	SF 17	2	17	0:04	Touchdown +7
17	SF	SF 25	12	75	4:52	Touchdown +7
18	CIN	CIN 22	12	78	5:18	Touchdown +7
19	SF	SF 25	6	22	1:09	Fumble
20	CIN	CIN 38	4	-3	1:33	Punt
21	SF	SF 20	2	69	0:12	End of game

8 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	28/32	283	3	0	3	13.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	16	87	5.4	1	2.7
Joe Burrow	6	43	7.2	0	4.3
Tyler Boyd	1	6	6.0	0	0.7
Trayveon Williams	2	6	3.0	0	0.0
Ja'Marr Chase	2	-8	-4.0	0	-2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	10	12	100	1	38%	5.4
Tee Higgins	5	6	69	0	19%	5.2
Tyler Boyd	3	3	40	1	9%	4.2
Irv Smith	4	4	25	0	13%	-5.0
Trenton Irwin	2	2	24	0	6%	1.6
Joe Mixon	3	3	23	0	9%	1.6
Andrei Iosivas	1	1	2	1	3%	0.8
Drew Sample	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Logan Wilson	8	2	0.0	1	2
Sam Hubbard	4	2	1.0	0	0
Dax Hill	4	1	0.0	0	0
Cam Taylor-Britt	3	2	0.0	0	0
Germaine Pratt	2	2	0.0	1	1
Mike Hilton	3	1	0.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	1	0.0	0	1
Nick Scott	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Battle	2	0	0.0	0	0
D.J. Turner	2	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Purdy	22/31	365	1	2	2	-2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Brock Purdy	6	57	9.5	0	4.4
Christian McCaffrey	12	54	4.5	1	-0.8
Elijah Mitchell	3	2	0.7	0	-0.9
Kyle Juszczyk	2	0	0.0	0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	9	11	149	0	37%	7.2
Brandon Aiyuk	5	9	109	0	30%	0.5
Christian McCaffrey	6	7	64	1	23%	2.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	2	43	0	7%	-0.7
Elijah Mitchell	0	1	0	0	3%	-5.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	4	6	0.0	0
Talanoa Hufanga	8	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	5	3	0.0	1
Tashaun Gipson	4	2	0.0	0
Dre Greenlaw	3	2	0.0	0
Clelin Ferrell	0	5	0.5	0
Arik Armstead	2	2	2.0	0
Deommodore Lenoir	2	2	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	1	2	0.0	2
Nick Bosa	1	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -4
Closing total: 44
CIN moneyline: +170
SF moneyline: -205

49ers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 48 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 74°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: CIN 14 days · SF 6 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Kyle Shanahan