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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 8
It turned at Q4 2:04, 3rd and 3, on Julian Love — 24.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, Seahawks +24.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:04 · 3rd and 3
Julian Love
Seahawks
(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 2 giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 6 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:44 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Geno SmithLead never changed again+720–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 74 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Seahawks 5.
Browns outgained Seahawks 386-363 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 7.9%, is past their previous low of 16.7% in week 7 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
SEA's early-down pass rate, 65.9%, is past their previous high of 61.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
CLE's blitz rate sent turned over: 60.0% in week 7 against 26.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points. · −0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Browns-7.1 ptsright on their number · −3.3 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 74 snaps
Seahawks2.1 ptsright on their number · +2.0 vs their 0.0 pts, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 78%
Tendencies room →Browns41.4%leaned — ran early · −12.3 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 58 early downs
Seahawks65.9%leaned — passed early · +8.2 vs their 57.6%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+1.08× that swing) · 41 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 49%
Tendencies room →Browns27.0%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+0.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks26.3%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 21.6%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -58% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Browns0.0%leaned — took the kick · −36.8 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±25.7 week to week (−1.43× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks33.3%right on their number · +7.6 vs their 25.7%, and they swing ±32.8 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 62%
Tendencies room →Browns26.3%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks37.8%leaned — sent pressure · +11.2 vs their 26.6%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+1.23× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Browns7.9%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks27.0%leaned — got home · +12.4 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
SEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.0%, 12.4 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 1.5 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
23/37, 254 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
2.6 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
15/31, 248 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
-5.7 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Lockett banked 7.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler LockettWR · Alpha Receiver | 22.1 | +7.7 | 84% | 92% | 25% | 32% | 8/9, 81 yd, 1 TD |
| David NjokuTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.7 | +4.7 | 78% | 84% | 27% | 17% | 4/8, 77 yd, 1 TD |
| Amari CooperWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | −0.9 | 81% | 86% | 37% | 48% | 6/11, 89 yd |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 13.9 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/37, 254 yd, 2 TD, 2 INT · 2 car, -3 yd |
| Kareem HuntRB · Committee Back | 13.7 | +3.3 | 35% | 32% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 55 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 12 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +6.7 | 66% | 68% | 11% | 0% | 3/4, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.7 | −16.0 | 78% | 87% | 39% | 56% | 5/14, 67 yd |
| P.J. WalkerQB · Starter QB | 10.6 | −5.6 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 15/31, 248 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 6 car, 27 yd |
| Jake BoboWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.6 | +5.3 | 31% | 26% | 6% | 3% | 1 car, 3 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 23 yd |
| Pierre StrongRB | 9.2 | +3.4 | 31% | 30% | 3% | 0% | 10 car, 41 yd · 1/1, 41 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB | 8.4 | +2.7 | 59% | 66% | 6% | 0% | 5 car, 53 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Kenneth WalkerRB | 8.0 | +1.0 | 41% | 34% | 6% | 5% | 8 car, 66 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.2 | +0.9 | 59% | 61% | 8% | 6% | 2/3, 32 yd |
| Elijah MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | −2.7 | 82% | 89% | 17% | 33% | 2/5, 30 yd |
| Jerome FordRB | 4.9 | −2.1 | 33% | 35% | 7% | 0% | 9 car, 37 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | +0.3 | 12% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB | 0.4 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Harrison BryantTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 31% | 14% | 3% | 5% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 83% | 86% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| DeeJay DallasRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Will DisslyTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 40% | 32% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brady RussellRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Marquise GoodwinWR · Rotational Receiver | -0.5 | −1.3 | 12% | 14% | 0% | — | 1 car, -5 yd |
| D'Wayne EskridgeWR | -0.5 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Q4 2:04 · Browns · 3rd & 3 at CLE 41 · gained nothing · -2.90 EP · −23.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 81 yards from the CLE 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns0
Seahawks6Browns0Seahawks7Browns0Seahawks13Browns0Seahawks14Browns6Seahawks14Browns7Seahawks14Browns7Seahawks17Browns13Seahawks17Browns14Seahawks17How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Browns17Seahawks17Browns20Seahawks17How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Browns20Seahawks23Browns20Seahawks24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Walker | 15/31 | 248 | 1 | 2 | 3 | −5.7 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 55 | 3.9 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Pierre Strong | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 37% | +2.2 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 8 | 77 | 1 | 27% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Thornhill | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Martin Emerson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 23/37 | 254 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_08_CLE_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -4 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 39.5; the game landed 44 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jerome Ford | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 | −2.3 |
| P.J. Walker | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| −1.7 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 17% | +2.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | +1.1 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Jerome Ford | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −2.7 |
| Harrison Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Denzel Ward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Walker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maurice Hurst | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Elliott | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Mitchell | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Geno Smith | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | −3.9 |
| D'Wayne Eskridge | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 8 | 9 | 81 | 1 | 25% | +8.6 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 14 | 67 | 0 | 39% | −3.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 11% | +3.2 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 8% | −1.8 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.0 |
| Kenneth Walker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 3 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordyn Brooks | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quandre Diggs | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Adams | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derick Hall | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Love | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Darrell Taylor | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Young | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mario Edwards | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
