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Cleveland Browns 20 at Seattle Seahawks 24. Final.
Seahawks -4 pushO 39.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Seattle Seahawks 24, Browns 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:04, 3rd and 3, on Julian Love — 24.5 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:04 · 3rd and 3
Julian Love
Seahawks
(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Seahawks closed -4 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Seattle Seahawks 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, Seahawks +24.5% win probability on one snap.
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Noah FantSeahawksQ4 1:19(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to CLE 14 for 27 yards (5-A.Walker).
15.4pts
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSeahawksQ4 0:44(:44) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 2 giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Seahawks at 6 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Browns166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Swing +24.5 for SeahawksExpected points +2.90 for SeahawksModel and market agree here.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:04CLE +24% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
4th · 0:44SEA +18% win prob(:44) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:19SEA +15% win prob(1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to CLE 14 for 27 yards (5-A.Walker).
4th · 6:40CLE +12% win prob(6:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 47 for -6 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett) [95-M.Garrett], and recovers at CLE 47.
3rd · 12:35SEA +10% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass short right to 85-D.Njoku to SEA 44 for 41 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [53-B.Mafe].
4th · 8:06SEA +10% win prob(8:06) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to CLE 40 for 20 yards (1-J.Thornhill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 9-yard touchdown catch with 0:44 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Browns: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.07Seahawks: +0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 74 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 54 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Browns 5, Seahawks 5.
NoteBrowns outgained Seahawks 386-363 but lost the turnover battle 3-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's blitz rate sent turned over: 60.0% in week 7 against 26.3% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 18.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Seahawks27.0%
leaned — got home · +12.4 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+1.46× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.0%, 12.4 points above their season mean of 14.7% and 1.5 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Walker pass−23% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:04) (Shotgun) 10-P.Walker pass deep right intended for 2-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Love (33-J.Adams) at SEA 43. 20-J.Love to SEA 43 for no gain (11-D.Peoples-Jones).
Q4 2:04 · Browns · 3rd & 3 at CLE 41 · gained nothing · -2.90 EP · −23.4% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 81 yards from the CLE 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
747
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1853%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0374%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3264%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.0614%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 28
Browns0Seahawks6
Browns0Seahawks7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Browns 3
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Seahawks 47
Browns0Seahawks13
Browns0Seahawks14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Browns 10
Browns6Seahawks14
Browns7Seahawks14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Seahawks 18
Browns7Seahawks17
Field goal8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Browns 12
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 47
2nd quarter44 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 20
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 20
Browns13Seahawks17
Browns14Seahawks17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Seahawks 1
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 27
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 29
Intercepted8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Browns 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Seahawks 40
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Browns17Seahawks17
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 17 to the Seahawks 7
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 29
Browns20Seahawks17
Field goal9 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 9
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 33
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Seahawks 40
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 11 to the Browns 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 41
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Browns20Seahawks23
Browns20Seahawks24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 43 to the Browns 9
Turnover on downs6 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
