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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
TexansHouston13
BY 2final margin
PanthersCarolina15
Houston Texans 13 at Carolina Panthers 15. Final.
Texans -3 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Carolina Panthers 15, Texans 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:22, 4th and 2, on Adam Thielen — 17.2 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:22 · 4th and 2
Adam Thielen
Panthers
(3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
U 43 ✓
Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 15–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:22, Panthers +17.2% win probability on one snap.
17.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Andrew BeckPanthersQ3 10:04(10:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 47-A.Beck to HOU 30 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), RECOVERED by CAR-25-X.Woods at HOU 32. 25-X.Woods to HOU 27 for 5 yards (26-D.Singletary).
15.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ4 0:03(:03) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on HOU-4-T.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-4-T.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.
15.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 40% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Texans at 1 giveaway.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Texans153 of 166 plays carry both curves
(3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
Swing +17.2 for PanthersExpected points +2.34 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 15 points higher than the market did.play 150
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:22CAR +17% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
3rd · 10:04HOU +16% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 47-A.Beck to HOU 30 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), RECOVERED by CAR-25-X.Woods at HOU 32. 25-X.Woods to HOU 27 for 5 yards (26-D.Singletary).
4th · 0:03CAR +15% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on HOU-4-T.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-4-T.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.
4th · 0:03CAR +15% win prob(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
4th · 1:50CAR +14% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to HOU 19 for 3 yards (5-J.Pitre).
3rd · 12:57CAR +12% win prob(12:57) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 15-J.Mingo to HOU 30 for 40 yards (1-J.Ward).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Eddy Pineiro's 23-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd1:39Tommy Tremble·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce Youngfrom Bryce Young · kick no good, wide right+67–6
3rd10:50Eddy Pineiro·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+37–9
3rd8:02Eddy Pineiro·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.Jansen+37–12
3rd0:42C.J. Stroud·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+613–12
4th0:03Eddy Pineiro·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+313–15
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryPanthers
Texans8–1Panthers
229Total yards224
4.0Yards per play3.7
40%Success rate33%
42%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays3
18First downs14
2Sacks taken6
1Turnovers0
The read
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Texans: −0.03 expected points added per play
−0.16Panthers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.12Texans: −0.12 expected points added per play
+0.01Panthers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Texans: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.47Panthers: −0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 57 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Panthers’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 2, Panthers 4.
NoteTexans outgained Panthers 229-224 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's pass rate over expected, −11.4 pts, is past their previous low of −9.5 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 17.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.32× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Panthers10.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.54× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteHOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 32.5%, 13.3 points above their season mean of 19.2% and 1.6 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Eddy Pineiro+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 0:03 · Panthers · 1st & goal at HOU 5 · gained nothing · +0.05 EP · +16.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 92 yards from the HOU 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
38%
Yards
453
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.1261%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0363%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14-0.5236%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 29
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Panthers 37
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 8 to the Panthers 29
The period ended14 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Panthers 24
2nd quarter51 plays
Texans6Panthers0
Texans7Panthers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 1
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Texans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 2 to the Texans 20
Texans7Panthers6
Touchdown15 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Texans 1
The period ended8 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Panthers 31
3rd quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Texans7Panthers9
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Texans 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Texans 22
Texans7Panthers12
Field goal4 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Texans 18
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Texans13Panthers12
Touchdown15 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Panthers 1
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from midfield to the Texans 45
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 39
Punt4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Panthers 35
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Texans13Panthers15
Field goal24 plays, from the Panthers 9 to the Texans 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3
Closing total
43
Texans moneyline
-162
Panthers moneyline
+136
Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43; the game landed 28 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 78°F at kickoff; breezy at 12 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Texans 14 days · Panthers 14 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Frank Reich
4th · 2:42CAR +11% win prob(2:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 30-C.Hubbard to HOU 30 for 14 yards (21-S.Nelson).
2nd · 1:20CAR +11% win prob(1:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 74 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 19 for 5 yards (37-D.Ross, 35-J.Hansen).
