2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium

Houston Texans

Carolina PanthersWinner

HOU -3 upsetU 43 ✓Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 15–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:22, CAR +17% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:22HOU 13 — CAR 12CAR ball · 4th & 2HOU 65%

(3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:22CAR +17% win prob(3:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to HOU 44 for 3 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
Q3 · 10:04HOU +16% win prob(10:04) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 47-A.Beck to HOU 30 for 8 yards (26-D.Jackson). FUMBLES (26-D.Jackson), RECOVERED by CAR-25-X.Woods at HOU 32. 25-X.Woods to HOU 27 for 5 yards (26-D.Singletary).
Q4 · 0:03CAR +15% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on HOU-4-T.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 20 - No Play. Penalty on HOU-4-T.Thomas, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q4 · 0:03CAR +15% win prob(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 13:15HOU Touchdown
(13:15) 78-L.Tunsil reported in as eligible. 47-A.Beck up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CAR 0
Q2 · 1:39CAR Touchdown
(1:39) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CAR 6
Q3 · 10:50CAR Field goal
(10:50) 4-E.Pineiro 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CAR 9
Q3 · 8:02CAR Field goal
(8:02) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: HOU 7 — CAR 12
Q3 · 0:42HOU Touchdown
(:42) 78-L.Tunsil reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — CAR 12
Q4 · 0:03CAR Field goal
(:03) 4-E.Pineiro 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — CAR 15

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Panthers
Offensive plays	57	61
Total yards	229 (edge)	224
Yards per play	4.0 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	-0.03 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	40% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	49%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12	0.01 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Texans outgained Panthers 229–224 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

22/31, 235 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +1.6% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

16/24, 140 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.5 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Dameon PierceRB

12 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Devin SingletaryRB

10 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Adam ThielenWR

8/11 for 72 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 0.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Jonathan MingoWR

4/5 for 62 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 21	5	8	1:20	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 10	4	-3	1:51	Punt
3	HOU	CAR 49	5	8	2:09	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 8	5	21	2:07	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 8	18	92	9:20	Touchdown +7
6	CAR	CAR 34	11	49	5:30	Turnover on downs
7	HOU	HOU 2	6	8	2:50	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 40	10	60	3:18	Touchdown +6
9	HOU	HOU 25	5	-13	0:29	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 19	4	4	1:06	End of half
11	CAR	CAR 23	10	49	4:14	Field goal +3
12	HOU	HOU 19	3	11	0:51	Fumble
13	CAR	HOU 27	4	8	1:57	Field goal +3
14	HOU	HOU 25	14	80	7:23	Touchdown +6
15	CAR	HOU 47	5	-10	2:03	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 21	6	18	2:56	Punt
17	CAR	CAR 21	4	-12	2:06	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 48	6	17	2:13	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 9	15	58	6:17	Field goal +3

6 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 92 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	16/24	140	0	0	2	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dameon Pierce	12	46	3.8	0	-1.1
Devin Singletary	10	30	3.0	0	-1.6
Tank Dell	3	15	5.0	0	0.8
C.J. Stroud	2	13	6.5	1	3.3
Mike Boone	1	5	5.0	0	0.2
Andrew Beck	2	1	0.5	1	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Brown	3	5	57	21%	4.0
Nico Collins	4	6	30	25%	0.4
Tank Dell	3	4	16	17%	-1.5
Devin Singletary	2	2	13	8%	0.5
Mike Boone	1	1	11	4%	2.0
Andrew Beck	1	1	8	4%	-4.4
Dalton Schultz	2	5	5	21%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jimmie Ward	3	5	0.0	1
Denzel Perryman	5	3	0.5	0
Shaquill Griffin	6	0	0.0	0
Tavierre Thomas	3	3	0.0	0
Jonathan Greenard	4	2	2.5	0
Jalen Pitre	3	2	0.0	1
Maliek Collins	2	3	2.0	0
Blake Cashman	2	1	1.0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	1	2	0.0	0
Kurt Hinish	2	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bryce Young	22/31	235	1	0	6	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chuba Hubbard	15	28	1.9	-5.5
Bryce Young	4	11	2.8	0.6
Raheem Blackshear	3	5	1.7	-3.1
Miles Sanders	2	0	0.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	8	11	72	0	35%	0.0
Jonathan Mingo	4	5	62	0	16%	1.9
Chuba Hubbard	2	2	26	0	6%	1.9
Raheem Blackshear	2	2	26	0	6%	2.0
D.J. Chark	2	4	23	0	13%	0.0
Stephen Sullivan	1	1	13	0	3%	1.2
Terrace Marshall	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Tommy Tremble	2	3	4	1	10%	1.1
Hayden Hurst	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Frankie Luvu	7	5	1.0	2
Xavier Woods	4	2	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	5	0	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	2	3	0.0	1
Jammie Robinson	2	3	0.0	0
C.J. Henderson	3	1	0.0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	2	0.0	1
Kamu Grugier-Hill	1	2	0.0	0
Sam Franklin	1	1	0.0	0
LaBryan Ray	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3
Closing total: 43
HOU moneyline: -162
CAR moneyline: +136

Texans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 28 — under by 15.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: HOU 14 days · CAR 14 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Frank Reich