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Jacksonville Jaguars 20 at Pittsburgh Steelers 10. Final.
Jaguars -2.5 ✓U 41 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Steelers 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:27, 2nd and 6, on Tank Bigsby — 9.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:27 · 2nd and 6
Tank Bigsby
Steelers
(10:27) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to PIT 35 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig, 24-J.Porter). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-31-K.Neal at PIT 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Jaguars closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:27, Steelers +9.3% win probability on one snap.
9.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan EngramSteelersQ1 0:30(:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to PIT 19 for -1 yards (54-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (54-K.Alexander), touched at PIT 27, RECOVERED by PIT-55-C.Holcomb at PIT 29. 55-C.Holcomb to PIT 29 for no gain (77-A.Harrison).
8.3pts
Travis EtienneJaguarsQ3 5:14(5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Jaguars won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jaguars won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.08 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Jaguars169 of 180 plays carry both curves
(10:27) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to PIT 35 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig, 24-J.Porter). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-31-K.Neal at PIT 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and
Swing +9.3 for SteelersExpected points +5.33 for SteelersThe model had Steelers 4 points higher than the market did.play 97
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:27JAX +9% win prob(10:27) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to PIT 35 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig, 24-J.Porter). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-31-K.Neal at PIT 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 5:14PIT +9% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:30JAX +8% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to PIT 19 for -1 yards (54-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (54-K.Alexander), touched at PIT 27, RECOVERED by PIT-55-C.Holcomb at PIT 29. 55-C.Holcomb to PIT 29 for no gain (77-A.Harrison).
1st · 13:21PIT +8% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley (42-J.Pierre). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
2nd · 10:24JAX +8% win prob(10:24) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right intended for 0-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Kazee at PIT -5. 23-D.Kazee ran ob at PIT 2 for 7 yards (89-L.Farrell).
1st · 3:14
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 50-yard field goal with 10:51 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:51Brandon McManus·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.MatiscikLead never changed again+33–0
1st5:59Brandon McManus·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+36–0
2nd4:01Chris Boswell·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder P.Harvin · snap C.Kuntz+36–3
2nd1:07Brandon McManus·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+39–3
4th4:38Brandon McManus·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+320–10
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categorySteelers
Jaguars6–1Steelers
379Total yards261
5.7Yards per play4.1
48%Success rate38%
46%Third-down rate27%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays3
18First downs16
3Sacks taken3
3Turnovers2
The read
Jaguars ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Jaguars: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.24Steelers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Jaguars: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.25Steelers: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Jaguars: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.20Steelers: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 66 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Steelers’s 63 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Steelers 2.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Steelers11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.0%, 23.9 points above their season mean of 48.1% and 1.7 times their own 14.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
77Anton HarrisonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%71 snaps
69Tyler ShatleyG · Every snap100%71 snaps
16Trevor LawrenceQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
68Brandon ScherffG · Every snap100%71 snaps
1Travis EtienneRB · Full-time89%63 snaps
0Calvin RidleyWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
17Evan EngramTE · Heavy rotation79%56 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Heavy rotation66%47 snaps
89Luke FarrellTE · Rotational46%33 snaps
85Brenton StrangeTE · Rotational41%29 snaps
15Tim JonesWR · Rotational35%25 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Rotational28%20 snaps
14Elijah CooksWR · Situational10%7 snaps
4Tank BigsbyRB · Situational8%6 snaps
73Blake HanceG · Situational7%5 snaps
25D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Tyson CampbellCBTyler LacyDECole Van LanenGYasir AbdullahOLBAndre CiscoSSZay JonesWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
C.J. BeathardQB
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 3 never used
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%67 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%67 snaps
61Mason ColeC · Every snap100%67 snaps
78James DanielsG · Every snap100%67 snaps
65Dan MooreT · Every snap99%66 snaps
14George PickensWR · Full-time93%62 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time91%61 snaps
83Connor HeywardTE · Heavy rotation73%49 snaps
11Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation69%46 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
22Najee HarrisRB · Heavy rotation52%35 snaps
30Jaylen WarrenRB · Rotational49%33 snaps
8Kenny PickettQB · Rotational42%28 snaps
19Calvin AustinWR · Rotational27%18 snaps
—Rodney WilliamsTE · Situational18%12 snaps
80Darnell WashingtonTE · Situational15%10 snaps
13Miles BoykinWR · Situational7%5 snaps
77Broderick JonesT · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 4
Levi WallaceCBBreiden FehokoNTMason RudolphQBDylan CookT
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Lawrence pass−16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to PIT 19 for -1 yards (54-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (54-K.Alexander), touched at PIT 27, RECOVERED by PIT-55-C.Holcomb at PIT 29. 55-C.Holcomb to PIT 29 for no gain (77-A.Harrison).
Q1 0:30 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at PIT 18 · lost 9 · -6.28 EP · −15.9% win probability
167 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 93 yards from the PIT 2 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
42%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.2076%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.3361%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2363%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.7946%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Jaguars3Steelers0
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Steelers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 29
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jaguars6Steelers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Steelers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Steelers 18
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 32
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Steelers 6
Jaguars6Steelers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 2 to the Jaguars 5
Jaguars9Steelers3
Field goal14 plays, from the Jaguars 37 to the Steelers 20
No good9 plays, from the Steelers 32 to the Jaguars 38
3rd quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Steelers 35
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Jaguars 35
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 27
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Jaguars15Steelers3
Jaguars17Steelers3
Touchdown3 plays
Jaguars17Steelers9
Jaguars17Steelers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Jaguars 22
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter53 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Steelers 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 27
Jaguars20Steelers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Steelers 17
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 46
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 39
Intercepted10 plays, from the Steelers 2 to the Jaguars 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jaguars -2.5
Closing total
41
Jaguars moneyline
-135
Steelers moneyline
+114
Jaguars closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 41; the game landed 30 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 55°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the east; 0.09 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Jaguars 10 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Mike Tomlin
PIT +7% win prob
(3:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to PIT 45 for 29 yards (28-M.Killebrew). PENALTY on PIT-31-K.Neal, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 45.
3rd · 0:59PIT +6% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:57JAX +6% win prob(11:57) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 17-E.Engram to PIT 25 for 4 yards (42-J.Pierre). PENALTY on JAX-17-E.Engram, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 29 - No Play.
Jaguarscategory by categorySteelers
Jaguars3
Steelers0
