2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

JAX -2.5 ✓U 41 ✓Jaguars closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:27, JAX +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:27JAX 9 — PIT 3JAX ball · 2nd & 6JAX 84%

(10:27) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to PIT 35 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig, 24-J.Porter). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-31-K.Neal at PIT 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:27JAX +9% win prob(10:27) 4-T.Bigsby right guard to PIT 35 for no gain (51-Ni.Herbig, 24-J.Porter). FUMBLES (51-Ni.Herbig), RECOVERED by PIT-31-K.Neal at PIT 36. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 5:14PIT +9% win prob(5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 0:30JAX +8% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 17-E.Engram to PIT 19 for -1 yards (54-K.Alexander). FUMBLES (54-K.Alexander), touched at PIT 27, RECOVERED by PIT-55-C.Holcomb at PIT 29. 55-C.Holcomb to PIT 29 for no gain (77-A.Harrison).
Q1 · 13:21PIT +8% win prob(13:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 0-C.Ridley (42-J.Pierre). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:51JAX Field goal
(10:51) 10-B.McManus 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 3 — PIT 0
Q1 · 5:59JAX Field goal
(5:59) 10-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 6 — PIT 0
Q2 · 4:01PIT Field goal
(4:01) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Score after this play: JAX 6 — PIT 3
Q2 · 1:07JAX Field goal
(1:07) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 9 — PIT 3
Q3 · 5:14JAX Touchdown
(5:14) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: JAX 17 — PIT 3
Q3 · 0:59PIT Touchdown
(:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 14-G.Pickens for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: JAX 17 — PIT 10
Q4 · 4:38JAX Field goal
(4:38) 10-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Score after this play: JAX 20 — PIT 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Steelers
Offensive plays	66	63
Total yards	379 (edge)	261
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.1
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	48% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	55%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	-0.20 (edge)
Third downs	6/13 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

24/32, 292 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

7.1 expected points added · +6.6% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

15/27, 138 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-7.6 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

24 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

5 att, 19 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Evan EngramTE

10/10 for 88 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Diontae JohnsonWR

8/14 for 85 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	-5	0:57	Punt
2	JAX	JAX 47	6	19	3:16	Field goal +3
3	PIT	PIT 25	5	4	1:24	Punt
4	JAX	JAX 32	7	36	3:29	Field goal +3
5	PIT	PIT 25	5	8	1:27	Punt
6	JAX	JAX 20	7	38	4:04	Fumble
7	PIT	PIT 29	4	2	1:48	Punt
8	JAX	JAX 37	6	57	3:20	Interception
9	PIT	PIT 2	12	61	6:16	Field goal +3
10	JAX	JAX 37	10	38	2:55	Field goal +3
11	PIT	PIT 32	7	30	1:04	Missed field goal
12	JAX	JAX 25	10	39	4:38	Fumble
13	PIT	PIT 36	4	-9	1:25	Punt
14	JAX	JAX 30	4	5	1:24	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 11	6	16	2:15	Punt
16	JAX	JAX 44	3	58	0:13	Touchdown +8
17	PIT	PIT 25	10	75	4:12	Touchdown +7
18	JAX	JAX 27	12	38	5:39	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 20	2	2	0:54	Interception
20	JAX	JAX 41	7	55	4:45	Field goal +3
21	PIT	PIT 25	10	15	2:10	Turnover on downs
22	JAX	PIT 40	4	-4	0:33	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 2	9	62	1:52	Interception

7 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trevor Lawrence	24/32	292	1	1	3	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Travis Etienne	24	79	3.3	-4.2
Trevor Lawrence	1	10	10.0	0.3
Tank Bigsby	3	9	3.0	-4.1
D'Ernest Johnson	2	8	4.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	10	10	88	0	31%	-0.1
Calvin Ridley	6	10	83	0	31%	-0.3
Travis Etienne	3	6	70	1	19%	4.3
Christian Kirk	4	5	46	0	16%	4.1
Luke Farrell	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	2	0.0	0	0
Devin Lloyd	6	2	0.0	0	0
Andrew Wingard	4	1	0.0	1	2
Josh Hines-Allen	3	2	2.0	0	0
Montaric Brown	1	2	0.0	0	0
Roy Robertson-Harris	1	2	0.0	0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0	0
Tre Herndon	1	1	0.0	0	0
Travon Walker	1	1	1.0	0	0
Darious Williams	2	0	0.0	0	3

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	15/27	138	1	2	2	-7.6
Kenny Pickett	10/16	73	0	0	1	-6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jaylen Warren	5	19	3.8	-0.4
Mitchell Trubisky	3	18	6.0	1.0
Najee Harris	7	13	1.9	-2.9
Kenny Pickett	1	10	10.0	0.2
Calvin Austin	2	10	5.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Diontae Johnson	8	14	85	0	35%	1.5
Najee Harris	5	5	42	0	13%	0.3
Connor Heyward	5	6	24	0	15%	-1.0
George Pickens	1	5	22	1	13%	-2.1
Jaylen Warren	4	5	19	0	13%	-3.3
Calvin Austin	2	2	19	0	5%	0.3
Rod Williams	0	2	0	0	5%	-0.7
Allen Robinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cole Holcomb	5	4	0.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	6	0	0.0	0	0
Damontae Kazee	5	0	0.0	1	1
Elandon Roberts	4	1	1.5	0	0
Joey Porter	4	1	0.0	0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Highsmith	3	1	0.5	0	0
Montravius Adams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Miles Killebrew	3	0	0.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -2.5
Closing total: 41
JAX moneyline: -135
PIT moneyline: +114

Jaguars closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 41; the game landed 30 — under by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: JAX 10 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Doug Pederson vs Mike Tomlin