2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver BroncosWinner

KC -7 upsetU 45.5 ✓26°FChiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:56, KC +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:56KC 6 — DEN 14KC ball · 1st & 10KC 56%

(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:56KC +19% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
Q4 · 11:24DEN +15% win prob(11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to KC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, touched at KC 6, RECOVERED by DEN-41-D.Sanders at KC 10. Penalty on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
Q2 · 13:13KC +10% win prob(13:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 42 for 15 yards (47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (47-J.Jewell), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at DEN 43. 31-J.Simmons to 50 for 7 yards (52-C.Humphrey).
Q1 · 6:13DEN +10% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-Ju.Watson ran ob at DEN 32 for 27 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 8:04DEN Touchdown
(8:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 0 — DEN 7
Q1 · 1:14KC Field goal
(1:14) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 3 — DEN 7
Q2 · 11:57DEN Touchdown
(11:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-J.Jeudy for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 3 — DEN 14
Q2 · 5:42KC Field goal
(5:42) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 6 — DEN 14
Q2 · 0:04KC Field goal
(:04) 7-H.Butker 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: KC 9 — DEN 14
Q4 · 10:40DEN Touchdown
(10:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-C.Sutton for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: KC 9 — DEN 21
Q4 · 0:34DEN Field goal
(:34) 16-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: KC 9 — DEN 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Broncos
Offensive plays	57	65
Total yards	274 (edge)	240
Yards per play	4.8 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	-0.32	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	39%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.34	-0.14 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	-0.01 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16	17 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Chiefs outgained Broncos 274–240 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/38, 240 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-11.0 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Russell WilsonQB

12/19, 114 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

-4.8 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Javonte WilliamsRB

27 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Isiah PachecoRB

8 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/9 for 58 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Rashee RiceWR

4/5 for 56 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · -0.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	5	-4	1:44	Punt
2	DEN	KC 39	11	39	5:20	Touchdown +7
3	KC	KC 25	13	71	6:45	Field goal +3
4	DEN	DEN 23	5	11	1:58	Punt
5	KC	KC 25	3	27	1:10	Fumble
6	DEN	50	4	50	1:12	Touchdown +7
7	KC	KC 25	5	10	1:50	Interception
8	DEN	KC 48	4	8	1:35	Turnover on downs
9	KC	KC 40	5	44	2:47	Field goal +3
10	DEN	DEN 25	7	10	2:09	Punt
11	KC	KC 21	8	44	2:42	Fumble
12	DEN	DEN 30	6	16	0:39	Fumble
13	KC	DEN 47	2	10	0:09	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 25	14	55	8:26	Missed field goal
15	KC	KC 27	8	31	3:49	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 9	12	42	6:30	Punt
17	DEN	KC 10	3	10	0:42	Touchdown +7
18	KC	KC 25	12	49	2:58	Turnover on downs
19	DEN	DEN 27	4	-6	1:02	Punt
20	KC	KC 31	4	-17	1:48	Interception
21	DEN	KC 20	7	5	4:14	Field goal +3
22	KC	KC 14	2	9	0:31	End of game

7 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 71 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/38	240	0	2	3	-11.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isiah Pacheco	8	40	5.0	-0.2
Patrick Mahomes	3	20	6.7	1.7
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	4	4.0	-0.1
Mecole Hardman	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Jerick McKinnon	2	-2	-1.0	-1.5
Kadarius Toney	1	-3	-3.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	6	9	58	24%	-0.3
Rashee Rice	4	5	56	14%	-0.1
Justin Watson	2	3	42	8%	3.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	4	27	11%	-6.4
Noah Gray	2	3	25	8%	1.9
Mecole Hardman	2	2	13	5%	0.3
Jerick McKinnon	1	2	10	5%	0.1
Skyy Moore	1	3	8	8%	-3.2
Kadarius Toney	1	1	4	3%	0.3
Blake Bell	0	1	0	3%	-0.6
Isiah Pacheco	3	4	-3	11%	-3.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Drue Tranquill	7	4	1.0	0
Leo Chenal	5	4	1.0	0
George Karlaftis	3	3	2.5	0
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0
Charles Omenihu	2	2	0.5	0
Trent McDuffie	3	1	0.0	0
Jack Cochrane	2	2	0.0	1
Mike Edwards	3	1	0.0	0
Willie Gay	2	1	0.0	0
Michael Danna	3	0	1.0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	12/19	114	3	0	6	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Javonte Williams	27	85	3.1	-4.2
Jaleel McLaughlin	4	33	8.3	2.8
Russell Wilson	8	30	3.8	1.9
Samaje Perine	1	5	5.0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jerry Jeudy	2	6	50	1	33%	1.6
Courtland Sutton	2	3	29	1	17%	4.0
Samaje Perine	2	3	16	0	17%	0.4
Javonte Williams	3	3	13	1	17%	0.9
Jaleel McLaughlin	2	2	6	0	11%	-0.7
Marvin Mims	1	1	0	0	6%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	6	1	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	4	1	0.0	0	1
Josey Jewell	3	2	0.0	0	1
Ja'Quan McMillian	4	1	0.0	1	1
Zach Allen	3	1	0.5	0	0
Baron Browning	4	0	2.0	0	0
P.J. Locke	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jonathon Cooper	1	2	0.5	0	0
Tremon Smith	2	0	0.0	0	0
Patrick Surtain	2	0	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7
Closing total: 45.5
KC moneyline: -340
DEN moneyline: +270

Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 33 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 26°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: KC 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Sean Payton

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.