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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
ChiefsKansas City9
BY 15final margin
BroncosDenver24
Kansas City Chiefs 9 at Denver Broncos 24. Final.
Chiefs -7 upset
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Denver Broncos 24, Chiefs 9 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:56, 1st and 10, on Patrick Mahomes — 19.3 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:56 · 1st and 10
Patrick Mahomes
Broncos
(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
U 45.5 ✓
22°F
Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:56, Broncos +19.3% win probability on one snap.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingBroncosQ2 13:13(13:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 42 for 15 yards (47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (47-J.Jewell), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at DEN 43. 31-J.Simmons to 50 for 7 yards (52-C.Humphrey).
10.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ4 11:24(11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to KC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, touched at KC 6, RECOVERED by DEN-41-D.Sanders at KC 10. Penalty on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
14.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.25 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Chiefs157 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
Swing +19.3 for BroncosExpected points +4.78 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 30 points higher than the market did.play 77
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:56KC +19% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
4th · 11:24DEN +15% win prob(11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to KC 5, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-M.Hardman MUFFS catch, touched at KC 6, RECOVERED by DEN-41-D.Sanders at KC 10. Penalty on KC, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
2nd · 13:13KC +10% win prob(13:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling to DEN 42 for 15 yards (47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (47-J.Jewell), RECOVERED by DEN-31-J.Simmons at DEN 43. 31-J.Simmons to 50 for 7 yards (52-C.Humphrey).
1st · 6:13DEN +10% win prob(6:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-Ju.Watson ran ob at DEN 32 for 27 yards.
3rd · 6:40KC +8% win prob(6:40) 16-W.Lutz 38 yard field goal is BLOCKED (20-J.Reid), Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon, recovered by DEN-16-W.Lutz at KC 26. 16-W.Lutz to KC 27 for -1 yards (54-L.Chenal).
2nd · 10:09KC +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Javonte Williams's 4-yard touchdown catch with 8:04 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:04Javonte Williams·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+70–7
1st1:14Harrison Butker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–7
2nd11:57Jerry Jeudy·11-yd TD catch11-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–14
2nd5:42Harrison Butker·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+36–14
2nd0:04Harrison Butker·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+39–14
4th10:40Courtland Sutton·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+79–21
4th0:34Wil Lutz·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap M.Fraboni+39–24
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Chiefs3–6Broncos
274Total yards240
4.8Yards per play3.7
39%Success rate40%
30%Third-down rate43%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays5
16First downs17
3Sacks taken6
4Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.32Chiefs: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.07Broncos: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Chiefs: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.14Broncos: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Chiefs: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Broncos 5.
NoteChiefs outgained Broncos 274-240 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.8% in week 7 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos22.7%
leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 11.3 points above their season mean of 18.7% and 1.8 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
52Creed HumphreyC · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Trey SmithG · Every snap100%61 snaps
79Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%61 snaps
74Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%61 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%61 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time85%52 snaps
4Rashee RiceWR · Heavy rotation61%37 snaps
11Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation57%35 snaps
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes sacked−11% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
Q2 0:56 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at DEN 19 · lost 11 · -4.78 EP · −10.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 71 yards from the KC 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
39%
Yards
514
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4476%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.0561%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.0464%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0941%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.060%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1520%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays
Chiefs0Broncos6
Chiefs0Broncos7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 39 to the Chiefs 4
Chiefs3Broncos7
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 28
2nd quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 29
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 43
Chiefs3Broncos13
Chiefs3Broncos14
Touchdown4 plays, from midfield to the Chiefs 11
Intercepted5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 35
The period ended5 plays, from the Chiefs 48 to the Chiefs 40
Chiefs6Broncos14
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Broncos 13
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Broncos 19
The period ended9 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 49
Chiefs9Broncos14
Field goal2 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 37
3rd quarter33 plays
No good16 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 13
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Broncos 42
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 35
4th quarter48 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Chiefs 27
Chiefs9Broncos20
Chiefs9Broncos21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 6
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 26
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 27 to the Broncos 29
Intercepted4 plays
Chiefs9Broncos24
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 8
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7
Closing total
45.5
Chiefs moneyline
-340
Broncos moneyline
+270
Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 33 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 22°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-east; mainly clear.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Sean Payton
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(10:09) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 29-J.McMillian at DEN 47. 29-J.McMillian to KC 48 for 5 yards (24-S.Moore).
2nd · 8:35KC +8% win prob(8:35) 3-R.Wilson sacked at KC 40 for 0 yards (23-D.Tranquill). FUMBLES (23-D.Tranquill) [23-D.Tranquill], ball out of bounds at KC 40.
4th · 15:00DEN +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at DEN 29 - No Play.
