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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 8
It turned at Q2 0:56, 1st and 10, on Patrick Mahomes — 19.3 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 24–9. Biggest swing: Q2 0:56, Broncos +19.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:56 · 1st and 10
Patrick Mahomes
Broncos
(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
19.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 4 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chiefs at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — -0.07 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at -0.32 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — -0.01 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Javonte Williams's 4-yard touchdown catch with 8:04 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Javonte Williams4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryBroncos
Broncos ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 57 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Broncos’s 65 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 3, Broncos 5.
Chiefs outgained Broncos 274-240 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 24.5% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate, 42.0%, is past their previous low of 50.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
KC's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 68.1% in week 2 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.8% in week 7 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs8.0 ptsright on their number · +1.2 vs their 6.8 pts, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 57 snaps
Broncos-7.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their -3.7 pts, and they swing ±4.0 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 33% to 83%
Tendencies room →Chiefs75.0%leaned — passed early · +12.5 vs their 62.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 44 early downs
Broncos42.0%leaned — ran early · −14.2 vs their 56.2%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.60× that swing) · 50 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 44%
Tendencies room →Chiefs18.2%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos26.7%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 21.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.64× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 97%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs40.0%right on their number · +8.6 vs their 31.4%, and they swing ±25.8 week to week (+0.33× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 64%
Tendencies room →Chiefs33.3%right on their number · +0.2 vs their 33.1%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos20.5%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 31.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 35%
Tendencies room →Chiefs30.0%leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 18.7%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.76× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Broncos22.7%leaned — got home · +7.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
KC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.0%, 11.3 points above their season mean of 18.7% and 1.8 times their own 6.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
24/38, 240 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-11.0 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
12/19, 114 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Courtland Sutton banked 4.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.8 | −0.8 | 63% | 43% | 17% | 0% | 27 car, 85 yd · 3/3, 13 yd, 1 TD |
| Russell WilsonQB · Starter QB | 17.6 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/19, 114 yd, 3 TD · 8 car, 30 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.0 | +0.8 | 59% | 77% | 33% | 100% | 2/6, 50 yd, 1 TD |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 11.8 | −1.6 | 85% | 89% | 24% | 17% | 6/9, 58 yd |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +4.6 | 79% | 90% | 17% | 27% | 2/3, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Rashee RiceWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | −0.2 | 61% | 59% | 14% | 7% | 4/5, 56 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB · Committee Back | 6.7 | −3.0 | 54% | 52% | 11% | 0% | 8 car, 40 yd · 3/4, -3 yd |
| Justin WatsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +1.6 | 36% | 43% | 8% | 27% | 2/3, 42 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB · Receiving Back | 5.9 | +0.5 | 11% | 10% | 11% | 0% | 4 car, 33 yd · 2/2, 6 yd |
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 5.6 | −9.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/38, 240 yd, 2 INT · 3 car, 20 yd |
| Noah GrayTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.5 | +0.7 | 48% | 43% | 8% | 10% | 2/3, 25 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Receiving Back | 4.1 | −0.9 | 24% | 47% | 17% | 0% | 1 car, 5 yd · 2/3, 16 yd |
| Mecole HardmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | +0.3 | 36% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 13 yd |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −3.4 | 57% | 61% | 11% | 28% | 2/4, 27 yd |
| Jerick McKinnonRB | 1.8 | −2.4 | 41% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 2 car, -2 yd · 1/2, 10 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −3.1 | 54% | 52% | 8% | 17% | 1/3, 8 yd |
| Kadarius ToneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.3 | 20% | 18% | 3% | 2% | 1 car, -3 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Marvin MimsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.0 | −0.4 | 39% | 40% | 6% | 0% | 1/1, 0 yd |
| Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB | 0.4 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Blake BellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 27 for -8 yards (56-B.Browning). FUMBLES (56-B.Browning) [56-B.Browning], RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at DEN 30.
Q2 0:56 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at DEN 19 · lost 11 · -4.78 EP · −10.9% win probability
155 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 71 yards from the KC 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Chiefs0
Broncos6Chiefs0Broncos7Chiefs3Broncos7How the play was built
Three in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chiefs3Broncos13Chiefs3Broncos14Chiefs6Broncos14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Chiefs9Broncos14Chiefs9Broncos20Chiefs9Broncos21Chiefs9Broncos24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/38 | 240 | 0 | 2 | 3 | −11.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 | +1.7 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 | 24% | −0.3 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 14% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drue Tranquill | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Karlaftis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/19 | 114 | 3 | 0 | 6 | −4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_08_KC_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 33 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| −0.1 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 8% | +3.4 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 11% | −6.4 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 8% | +1.9 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 5% | +0.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 8% | −3.2 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 4 | -3 | 0 | 11% | −3.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Cochrane | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Edwards | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Willie Gay | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Danna | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 27 | 85 | 3.1 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | +2.8 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 50 | 1 | 33% | +1.6 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 | 17% | +4.0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 17% | +0.4 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 17% | +0.9 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11% | −0.7 |
| Marvin Mims | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josey Jewell | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ja'Quan McMillian | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Allen | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| P.J. Locke | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremon Smith | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Surtain | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
