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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Rams161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.1 for CowboysExpected points +8.09 for CowboysThe model had Rams 12 points higher than the market did.play 37
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:43LA +10% win prob(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:30DAL +6% win prob(10:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-B.Cooks to LA 18 for 19 yards (1-D.Kendrick).
1st · 0:48DAL +5% win prob(:48) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
1st · 12:44DAL +5% win prob(12:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 40 for 17 yards (14-C.Durant; 53-E.Jones).
1st · 1:34LA +5% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at LA 40 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald).
1st · 13:46DAL +5% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 20 for -4 yards (0-B.Young). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Contact, 6 yards, enforced at DAL 24 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jake Ferguson's 18-yard touchdown catch with 9:49 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:49Jake Ferguson·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–7
1st5:25Lucas Havrisik·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+33–7
1st0:48Brandon Aubrey·58-yd field goal58-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–10
2nd13:44Cowboys·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+23–19
2nd12:50CeeDee Lamb·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+73–26
2nd2:34CeeDee Lamb·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+73–33
2nd0:09Royce Freeman·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+69–33
3rd11:35Ben Skowronek·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point good+817–33
3rd1:36Brandon Aubrey·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+317–36
4th12:24Brandin Cooks·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+717–43
4th5:34Lucas Havrisik·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap A.Ward+320–43
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryCowboys
Rams1–6Cowboys
282Total yards390
4.7Yards per play6.5
42%Success rate50%
31%Third-down rate55%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays7
15First downs22
2Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Rams: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.25Rams: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.29Cowboys: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.01Rams: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.11Cowboys: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 60 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 60 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Cowboys 6.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonOver Expected
DAL's pass rate over expected, +15.7 pts, is past their previous high of +7.8 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
LA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.5 points.
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 7 against 7.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys13.5%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
NoteDAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.7 pts, 12.6 points above their season mean of 3.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:43 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 25 · gained nothing · -8.09 EP · −14.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
669
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.1660%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.4167%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2055%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Rams0Cowboys6
Rams0Cowboys7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 18
Rams3Cowboys7
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 15
Rams3Cowboys10
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Rams 30
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams3Cowboys16
Touchdown2 plays
Rams3Cowboys17
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter54 plays
Rams3Cowboys19
Punt3 plays, from the Rams 22 to the Rams 32
Rams3Cowboys25
Rams3Cowboys26
Touchdown4 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 10
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 32
Intercepted10 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Rams 9
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 23
Rams3Cowboys32
Rams3Cowboys33
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Rams 22
Rams9Cowboys33
Touchdown19 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Rams15Cowboys33
Rams17Cowboys33
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cowboys 20
Rams17Cowboys36
Field goal21 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Rams 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 33
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Cowboys 46
Rams17Cowboys42
Rams17Cowboys43
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Rams 25
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 29
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 7 to the Cowboys 8
Rams20Cowboys43
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 46 to the Cowboys 22
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 33
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 20
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
