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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 8
It turned at Q1 0:43, 1st and 10, on Daron Bland — 10.1 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 43–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:43, Cowboys +10.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:43 · 1st and 10
Daron Bland
Cowboys
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.25 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.16 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jake Ferguson's 18-yard touchdown catch with 9:49 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Jake Ferguson18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak PrescottLead never changed again+70–7Cowboyssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+23–19
Ben Skowronek20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point good+817–3312 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 60 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 60 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Cowboys 6.
Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's pass rate over expected, +15.7 pts, is past their previous high of +7.8 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
LA's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 28.5 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
LA's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 7 against 7.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Rams-12.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.3 vs their -3.0 pts, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.22× that swing) · 58 snaps
Cowboys15.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.6 vs their 3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.98× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Rams51.2%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 53.4%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 43 early downs
Cowboys62.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 56.9%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 48%
Tendencies room →Rams13.5%inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Cowboys36.6%leaned — faked the run · +11.3 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+1.29× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 120%
Fourth Down room →Rams66.7%leaned — went for it · +33.1 vs their 33.6%, and they swing ±28.5 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys33.3%right on their number · −13.3 vs their 46.7%, and they swing ±28.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 59%
Tendencies room →Rams34.1%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys43.2%leaned — sent pressure · +14.1 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+1.19× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 32%
Tendencies room →Rams7.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −6.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys13.5%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.37× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
DAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 15.7 pts, 12.6 points above their season mean of 3.1 pts and 2.0 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
25/31, 304 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
11.6 expected points added · +11.5% completion over expected
Passing · LA
13/22, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.9 expected points added · -8.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
CeeDee Lamb banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 41.0 | +11.9 | 82% | 85% | 41% | 49% | 1 car, 12 yd · 12/14, 158 yd, 2 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 28.1 | +4.8 | 86% | — | 0% | — | 25/31, 304 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 19 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.7 | +5.8 | 80% | 88% | 12% | 8% | 4/4, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.2 | +3.3 | 62% | 68% | 12% | 20% | 1 car, 3 yd · 3/4, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| Tony PollardRB · Committee Back | 6.5 | −2.5 | 65% | 68% | 3% | 0% | 12 car, 53 yd · 1/1, 2 yd |
| Rico DowdleRB | 4.5 | −1.4 | 35% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 5 car, 18 yd · 2/2, 7 yd |
| Michael GallupWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | −1.3 | 51% | 51% | 9% | 10% | 2/3, 20 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +0.8 | 38% | 29% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Kavontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −1.6 | 17% | 15% | 6% | 12% | 1/2, 13 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 0.8 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 45% | 44% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sean McKeonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.5 | 17% | 17% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Cooper RushQB | -0.2 | −1.4 | 14% | — | 0% | — | 2/3, 3 yd · 3 car, -3 yd |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Bland at LA 30. 26-D.Bland for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:43 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 25 · gained nothing · -8.09 EP · −14.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 165. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 75 yards from the DAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams0
Cowboys6Rams0Cowboys7Rams3Cowboys7Rams3Cowboys10How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Rams3Cowboys16Rams3Cowboys17Rams3Cowboys19Rams3Cowboys25Rams3Cowboys26Rams3Cowboys32Rams3Cowboys33Rams9Cowboys33Rams15Cowboys33Rams17Cowboys33Rams17Cowboys36Rams17Cowboys42Rams17Cowboys43Rams20Cowboys43Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 13/22 | 162 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −5.9 |
| Brett Rypien | 5/10 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 | +3.7 |
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 9% | +3.0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/31 | 304 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +11.6 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/3 | 3 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_08_LA_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 23.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 63 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| 22% |
| −1.1 |
| Puka Nacua | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 | 22% | +3.9 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 31% | −14.5 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 | 3% | +3.3 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Derion Kendrick | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Russ Yeast | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larrell Murchison | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Donald | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Lake | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kobie Turner | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ahkello Witherspoon | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.6 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 12 | 14 | 158 | 2 | 41% | +12.5 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 12% | +6.8 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 | 12% | +3.4 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 9% | +0.8 |
| Kavontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −0.2 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −1.4 |
| Sean McKeon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −6.0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daron Bland | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Markquese Bell | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damone Clark | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayron Kearse | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demarcus Lawrence | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorance Armstrong | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
