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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 26, Raiders 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 11:47, 2nd and 6, on Marcus Peters — 17.4 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 11:47 · 2nd and 6
Marcus Peters
Raiders
(11:47) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at LV 25. 24-M.Peters for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Lions closed -7 and covered, winning by 12.
Detroit Lions 26–14. Biggest swing: Q3 11:47, Raiders +17.4% win probability on one snap.
17.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Josh ReynoldsRaidersQ1 5:10(5:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to DET 27 for 13 yards (59-L.Masterson). FUMBLES (59-L.Masterson), touched at DET 28, RECOVERED by LV-41-R.Spillane at DET 26.
14.0pts
Kerby JosephLionsQ1 4:59(4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET -4. 31-K.Joseph to DET 11 for 15 yards (13-H.Renfrow).
13.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Raiders at 0 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Raiders owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Lions at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Raidersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — -0.16 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.87 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Raiders at 1 of 9 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Raiders161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(11:47) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at LV 25. 24-M.Peters for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.4 for LionsExpected points −11.21 for LionsThe model had Raiders 5 points higher than the market did.play 98
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 11:47LV +17% win prob(11:47) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at LV 25. 24-M.Peters for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:10LV +14% win prob(5:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 8-J.Reynolds to DET 27 for 13 yards (59-L.Masterson). FUMBLES (59-L.Masterson), touched at DET 28, RECOVERED by LV-41-R.Spillane at DET 26.
1st · 4:59LV +14% win prob(4:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right intended for 17-D.Adams INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET -4. 31-K.Joseph to DET 11 for 15 yards (13-H.Renfrow).
3rd · 5:52LV +12% win prob(5:52) 13-C.Reynolds left tackle to LV 3 for 1 yard (90-J.Tillery, 98-M.Crosby). FUMBLES (98-M.Crosby), RECOVERED by LV-98-M.Crosby at LV 3. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 3:20DET +8% win prob(3:20) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:00DET +5% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Riley Patterson's 44-yard field goal with 7:56 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:56Riley Patterson·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.DalyLead never changed again+30–3
2nd12:27Riley Patterson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+30–6
2nd8:12Riley Patterson·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+30–9
4th10:04Riley Patterson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap S.Daly+314–26
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryLions
Raiders2–6Lions
157Total yards488
3.5Yards per play6.2
44%Success rate42%
11%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
0Explosive plays10
10First downs28
6Sacks taken1
1Turnovers3
The read
Lions ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.87 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.52Raiders: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.87Raiders: −0.87 expected points added per play
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Raiders: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.11Lions: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 45 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Lions’s 79 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 1, Lions 6.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.52.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's early-down pass rate turned over: 80.0% in week 7 against 40.6% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Lions32.1%
leaned — got home · +14.6 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteDET's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.1%, 14.6 points above their season mean of 17.5% and 1.7 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−22% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:47) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 24-M.Peters at LV 25. 24-M.Peters for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 11:47 · Lions · 2nd & 6 at LV 28 · gained nothing · -11.21 EP · −21.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 79 yards from the DET 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
40%
Yards
643
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.0958%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR32-0.4634%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.8669%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.0960%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.480%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Raiders0Lions3
Field goal16 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Raiders 26
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 46
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 41 to midfield
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 49 to the Raiders 21
2nd quarter48 plays
Raiders0Lions6
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 8 to the Raiders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Raiders0Lions9
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Raiders 7
Raiders6Lions9
Raiders7Lions9
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Lions 3
Raiders7Lions15
Raiders7Lions16
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Raiders 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 37
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Raiders13Lions16
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 44 to the Raiders 28
Raiders14Lions16
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Raiders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 3 to the Raiders 8
Raiders14Lions22
Raiders14Lions23
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Raiders 27
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 22
4th quarter41 plays
Raiders14Lions26
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Raiders 34
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Raiders 2 to the Raiders 36
No good9 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 4
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -7
Closing total
46
Raiders moneyline
+270
Lions moneyline
-340
Lions closed -7 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 46; the game landed 40 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Raiders 8 days · Lions 8 days
Coaches
Josh McDaniels vs Dan Campbell
(10:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to LV 43 for 14 yards (1-M.Epps).
2nd · 2:15DET +5% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 9-J.Williams to DET 43 for 22 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
3rd · 3:27DET +4% win prob(3:27) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 8-J.Reynolds [91-B.Nichols]. DET-74-K.Awosika was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on LV-21-A.Robertson, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at LV 45 - No Play.
