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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Vikings170 of 182 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
Swing +9.3 for PackersExpected points +1.12 for PackersThe model had Packers 8 points higher than the market did.play 43
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00GB +9% win prob(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
1st · 7:11MIN +9% win prob(7:11) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
3rd · 14:28GB +7% win prob(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn ran ob at GB 42 for 32 yards (20-R.Ford).
2nd · 13:56GB +6% win prob(13:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 17-K.Osborn to MIN 48 for 21 yards (20-R.Ford, 59-D.Campbell).
1st · 3:20GB +5% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson pushed ob at GB 4 for 23 yards (25-K.Nixon).
1st · 1:13MIN +5% win prob(1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 21 for -12 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
1st · 1:39
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Akers's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 1:39 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:39Cam Akers·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd10:16Greg Joseph·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Wright · snap A.DePaola+310–0
2nd0:00Anders Carlson·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+310–3
3rd2:42Romeo Doubs·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+724–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryPackers
Vikings8–0Packers
347Total yards270
5.2Yards per play4.4
42%Success rate37%
56%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays3
20First downs15
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers1
The read
Vikings ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Vikings: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.24Packers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Vikings: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.23Packers: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Vikings: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.27Packers: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 67 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Packers’s 62 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Packers 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.4% in week 7 against 75.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Packers20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteGB's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 8.2%, 15.0 points below their season mean of 23.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Greg Joseph−12% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(7:11) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
Q1 7:11 · Vikings · 4th & 1 at GB 24 · gained nothing · -4.13 EP · −12.2% win probability
168 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 177. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 81 yards from the GB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
39%
Yards
616
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.2677%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.4275%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1826%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2850%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Packers 28
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Packers 24
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Packers 36
Vikings6Packers0
Vikings7Packers0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Packers 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 33
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt1 play
Vikings10Packers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Packers 7
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 44
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
Vikings10Packers3
Field goal20 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Vikings 12
3rd quarter45 plays
Vikings16Packers3
Vikings17Packers3
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 2
Intercepted4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 27
Vikings23Packers3
Vikings24Packers3
Touchdown2 plays
Vikings24Packers9
Vikings24Packers10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Vikings 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 29
4th quarter49 plays
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Packers 13
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Packers 44 to the Vikings 10
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 12
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Vikings 15 to the Vikings 14
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 6 to the Vikings 29
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Vikings 34
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
