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2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Lambeau Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

24

Green Bay Packers

10

MIN -1 ✓U 41.5 ✓

Minnesota Vikings 24–10. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, GB +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑MIN ↓
Q2 · 15:00MIN 7 — GB 0GB ball · 4th & 13MIN 83%

(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 15:00GB +9% win prob(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 55 yards to MIN 20, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.
  2. Q1 · 7:11MIN +9% win prob(7:11) 1-G.Joseph 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.
  3. Q3 · 14:28GB +7% win prob(14:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn ran ob at GB 42 for 32 yards (20-R.Ford).
  4. Q2 · 13:56GB +6% win prob(13:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 17-K.Osborn to MIN 48 for 21 yards (20-R.Ford, 59-D.Campbell).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:39MIN Touchdown

    (1:39) (Shotgun) 31-C.Akers up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — GB 0
  2. Q2 · 10:16MIN Field goal

    (10:16) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 10 — GB 0
  3. Q2 · 0:00GB Field goal

    (:00) 17-A.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: MIN 10 — GB 3
  4. Q3 · 9:28MIN Touchdown

    (9:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — GB 3
  5. Q3 · 7:53MIN Touchdown

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 3-J.Addison for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — GB 3
  6. Q3 · 2:42GB Touchdown

    (2:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — GB 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsPackers
Offensive plays6762
Total yards347 (edge)270
Yards per play5.2 (edge)4.4
Expected points added / play0.19 (edge)-0.24
Success rate42% (edge)37%
Dropback rate58%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.44 (edge)-0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.17 (edge)-0.27
Third downs10/18 (edge)5/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)15
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers11

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

23/31, 274 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

19.5 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

24/41, 229 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Alexander MattisonRB

16 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

7 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

K.J. OsbornWR

8/10 for 99 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

6/9 for 88 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 19592:22Punt
2MINMIN 3411425:31Missed field goal
3GBGB 32441:00Punt
4MINMIN 238524:33Touchdown +7
5GBGB 28521:41Punt
6MINMIN 209684:40Field goal +3
7GBGB 405111:59Punt
8MINMIN 257203:18Punt
9GBGB 1514714:56Field goal +3
10MINMIN 2515755:35Touchdown +7
11GBGB 25421:32Interception
12MINGB 202200:05Touchdown +7
13GBGB 1916755:09Touchdown +7
14MINMIN 1415457:57Missed field goal
15GBGB 449462:27Turnover on downs
16MINMIN 10321:21Fumble
17GBMIN 15491:08Turnover on downs
18MINMIN 67232:05Punt
19GBGB 207411:24Turnover on downs
20MINMIN 44201:17End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 75 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins23/3127420219.5
Jaren Hall3/423001-2.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Alexander Mattison16311.90-5.3
Cam Akers9192.11-0.9
Kirk Cousins294.501.8
Jordan Addison122.00-0.4
Brandon Powell122.000.4
Jaren Hall2-1-0.500.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
K.J. Osborn81099029%8.7
T.J. Hockenson6988126%6.3
Jordan Addison7882124%6.3
Brandon Powell131009%-0.6
Johnny Mundt11803%0.8
Cam Akers11603%0.1
Alexander Mattison11203%-0.6
C.J. Ham11203%2.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Josh Metellus430.011
Jordan Hicks240.000
Harrison Phillips240.500
Camryn Bynum410.502
Harrison Smith410.000
Akayleb Evans400.001
Jay Ward310.000
D.J. Wonnum122.000
Jaquelin Roy120.000
Danielle Hunter301.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love24/41229114-7.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jordan Love4348.50-3.6
Aaron Jones7294.10-1.1
A.J. Dillon6111.80-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jayden Reed4683015%-0.9
A.J. Dillon5541013%2.3
Christian Watson3833020%-0.5
Dontayvion Wicks2428010%1.5
Romeo Doubs4918123%-1.8
Aaron Jones4517013%0.1
Luke Musgrave23908%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
De'Vondre Campbell740.000
Tedarrell Slaton450.000
Quay Walker630.001
Keisean Nixon410.002
Preston Smith232.001
Rasul Douglas320.000
Rudy Ford320.000
Jaire Alexander310.000
Kenny Clark121.000
Jonathan Owens210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -1
Closing total
41.5
MIN moneyline
-112
GB moneyline
-108

Vikings closed -1 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
39°F, wind 8 mph
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
MIN 6 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.