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2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
PatriotsNew England17
BY 14final margin
DolphinsMiami31
New England Patriots 17 at Miami Dolphins 31. Final.
Dolphins -7.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
Miami Dolphins 31, Patriots 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:28, 2nd and 6, on Tyreek Hill — 12.1 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:28 · 2nd and 6
Tyreek Hill
Dolphins
(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15 mph wind
Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Miami Dolphins 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:28, Dolphins +12.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kendrick BournePatriotsQ1 3:39(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.0pts
Jalen RamseyDolphinsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [43-A.Van Ginkel] at MIA 11. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at NE 40 for 49 yards (81-D.Douglas).
10.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Patriots at 1 of 9 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.19 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Patriots161 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +12.1 for DolphinsExpected points +4.19 for DolphinsThe model had Patriots 19 points higher than the market did.play 35
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:28MIA +12% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00NE +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [43-A.Van Ginkel] at MIA 11. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at NE 40 for 49 yards (81-D.Douglas).
1st · 3:39MIA +9% win prob(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 15:00NE +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 19, touched at MIA 21, RECOVERED by NE-33-A.Jennings at MIA 19.
2nd · 12:32NE +7% win prob(12:32) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 26-S.Ahmed to MIA 48 for -8 yards (99-K.White).
1st · 4:37NE +6% win prob(4:37) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Dugger at MIA 45. 23-K.Dugger pushed ob at MIA 30 for 15 yards (10-T.Hill).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cedrick Wilson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 6:14 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st3:39Kendrick Bourne·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+77–0
1st0:28Tyreek Hill·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+77–7
2nd6:14Cedrick Wilson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+77–14
2nd0:29Jason Sanders·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap B.Ferguson+37–17
3rd12:49Chad Ryland·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.Cardona+310–17
4th8:33JuJu Smith-Schuster·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Mac Jonesfrom Mac Jones+717–24
4th2:49Jaylen Waddle·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+717–31
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryDolphins
Patriots1–8Dolphins
220Total yards393
4.4Yards per play5.6
40%Success rate43%
11%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays7
13First downs22
3Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Patriots: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Patriots: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.30Dolphins: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.43Dolphins: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 70 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Dolphins 6.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 7 against 40.8% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Dolphins21.9%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteNE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 21.8 points above their season mean of 15.7% and 2.9 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
77Trenton BrownT · Every snap100%53 snaps
71Michael OnwenuG · Every snap100%53 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%53 snaps
10Mac JonesQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Full-time92%49 snaps
81Demario DouglasWR · Heavy rotation77%41 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Heavy rotation60%32 snaps
83Jalen ReagorWR · Heavy rotation58%31 snaps
38Rhamondre StevensonRB · Heavy rotation58%31 snaps
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Jones pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [43-A.Van Ginkel] at MIA 11. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at NE 40 for 49 yards (81-D.Douglas).
Q2 2:00 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at MIA 23 · gained nothing · -6.82 EP · −17.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 81 yards from the NE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
608
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.3468%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.0076%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.0256%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3050%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3560%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 27
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Patriots 36
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 40
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 36
Patriots6Dolphins0
Patriots7Dolphins0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Dolphins 24
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Patriots7Dolphins6
Patriots7Dolphins7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 42
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Patriots7Dolphins13
Patriots7Dolphins14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Patriots 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Dolphins 23
Patriots7Dolphins17
Field goal12 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Patriots 12
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Patriots10Dolphins17
Field goal4 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 14
Patriots10Dolphins23
Patriots10Dolphins24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Patriots 1
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 47
Punt12 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to the Dolphins 42
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Patriots 16 to the Patriots 22
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 15 to the Dolphins 18
Patriots16Dolphins24
Patriots17Dolphins24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Patriots 19 to the Dolphins 3
Patriots17Dolphins30
Patriots17Dolphins31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Patriots 31
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 30
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
