2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England Patriots

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -7.5 ✓O 46.5 ✓17 mph windDolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Miami Dolphins 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:28, MIA +12% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:28NE 7 — MIA 6MIA ball · 2nd & 6MIA 60%

(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:28MIA +12% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:00NE +10% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [43-A.Van Ginkel] at MIA 11. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at NE 40 for 49 yards (81-D.Douglas).
Q1 · 3:39MIA +9% win prob(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 15:00NE +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 19, touched at MIA 21, RECOVERED by NE-33-A.Jennings at MIA 19.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 3:39NE Touchdown
(3:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 0
Q1 · 0:28MIA Touchdown
(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 7
Q2 · 6:14MIA Touchdown
(6:14) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 11-C.Wilson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 14
Q2 · 0:29MIA Field goal
(:29) 7-J.Sanders 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NE 7 — MIA 17
Q3 · 12:49NE Field goal
(12:49) 37-C.Ryland 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: NE 10 — MIA 17
Q3 · 7:38MIA Touchdown
(7:38) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 10 — MIA 24
Q4 · 8:33NE Touchdown
(8:33) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 7-J.Smith-Schuster for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — MIA 24
Q4 · 2:49MIA Touchdown
(2:49) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep middle to 17-J.Waddle for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NE 17 — MIA 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Dolphins
Offensive plays	50	70
Total yards	220	393 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	40%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	64%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29	0.30 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.43
Third downs	1/9	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

30/45, 324 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

12.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Mac JonesQB

19/29, 161 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-9.1 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Raheem MostertRB

13 att, 46 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Rhamondre StevensonRB

10 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

7/12 for 121 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Tyreek HillWR

8/13 for 112 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	5	2	1:57	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 36	8	25	3:08	Punt
3	NE	NE 20	6	20	3:20	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 20	4	10	2:09	Interception
5	NE	MIA 30	4	30	0:54	Touchdown +7
6	MIA	MIA 25	8	75	3:10	Touchdown +7
7	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:47	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 47	15	43	7:25	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 25	10	52	4:22	Interception
10	MIA	NE 40	8	38	1:22	Field goal +3
11	NE	NE 25	2	0	0:26	End of half
12	MIA	MIA 25	2	0	0:05	Fumble
13	NE	MIA 19	4	-1	2:10	Field goal +3
14	MIA	MIA 23	11	82	5:10	Touchdown +7
15	NE	NE 23	6	24	1:29	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 4	10	42	4:55	Punt
17	NE	NE 15	4	7	1:32	Punt
18	MIA	MIA 15	4	3	0:52	Punt
19	NE	NE 19	14	86	5:17	Touchdown +7
20	MIA	MIA 25	12	75	5:47	Touchdown +7
21	NE	NE 25	5	-4	0:51	Turnover on downs
22	MIA	NE 10	3	0	1:52	End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 86 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mac Jones	19/29	161	2	1	3	-9.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Rhamondre Stevenson	10	39	3.9	-0.5
Ezekiel Elliott	7	36	5.1	0.3
Demario Douglas	1	4	4.0	-0.1
Mac Jones	1	-2	-2.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kendrick Bourne	3	4	36	1	14%	-4.0
Pharaoh Brown	2	2	33	0	7%	2.8
Hunter Henry	3	3	28	0	11%	1.4
Demario Douglas	5	7	25	0	25%	-3.9
DeVante Parker	1	2	14	0	7%	0.6
Rhamondre Stevenson	2	4	11	0	14%	-1.8
Mike Gesicki	2	3	11	0	11%	-0.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	1	3	1	4%	4.1
Jalen Reagor	0	2	0	0	7%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Dugger	7	2	1.0	1	1
Jahlani Tavai	3	4	0.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	4	1	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	2	2	0.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	4	0	0.0	0	0
Christian Barmore	2	2	1.0	0	0
J.C. Jackson	3	0	0.0	0	2
Jonathan Jones	1	2	0.0	0	1
Mack Wilson	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jack Jones	2	1	0.0	0	1

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	30/45	324	3	1	2	12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	13	46	3.5	1	-1.6
Jeffery Wilson	5	23	4.6	0	-0.3
Tua Tagovailoa	6	8	1.3	0	-8.6
Salvon Ahmed	2	1	0.5	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaylen Waddle	7	12	121	1	27%	10.2
Tyreek Hill	8	13	112	1	30%	4.8
Durham Smythe	3	3	28	0	7%	2.9
Salvon Ahmed	4	4	16	0	9%	0.7
Chase Claypool	1	2	15	0	5%	-0.2
Jeffery Wilson	2	2	14	0	5%	0.3
Braxton Berrios	2	3	8	0	7%	-1.3
Alec Ingold	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.8
Julian Hill	1	2	4	0	5%	-1.0
Cedrick Wilson	1	1	1	1	2%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Brandon Jones	4	3	0.0	1
Jaelan Phillips	6	1	1.0	0
DeShon Elliott	3	2	0.0	1
Jerome Baker	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	1	1.0	0
Kader Kohou	3	0	0.0	1
David Long Jr.	2	1	0.0	0
Eli Apple	2	0	0.0	0
Zach Sieler	1	1	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -7.5
Closing total: 46.5
NE moneyline: +300
MIA moneyline: -380

Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 17 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Mike McDaniel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 17 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.