For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Not startedThis page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 8
It turned at Q1 0:28, 2nd and 6, on Tyreek Hill — 12.1 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Miami Dolphins 31–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:28, Dolphins +12.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:28 · 2nd and 6
Tyreek Hill
Dolphins
(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.29 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 5 of 13 on third down, against Patriots at 1 of 9 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(:28) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Cedrick Wilson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 6:14 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cedrick Wilson1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+77–148 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryDolphins
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 50 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 70 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Dolphins 6.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's play-action rate, 37.5%, is past their previous high of 15.2% in week 7 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +2.9σ from their own normal
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, was the highest of the 25 team-games charted in week 8 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.5 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NE's sack or hit rate, 4.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
MIA's blitz rate sent, 15.6%, is past their previous low of 18.6% in week 5 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
MIA's play-action rate turned over: 16.7% in week 7 against 40.8% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-2.9 ptsright on their number · +0.4 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 50 snaps
Dolphins11.7 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.7 vs their -1.0 pts, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.77× that swing) · 70 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 82%
Tendencies room →Patriots53.8%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 55.7%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 39 early downs
Dolphins61.1%inside their normal wobble · +9.7 vs their 51.5%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Patriots37.5%off script — faked the run · +21.8 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+2.88× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Dolphins40.8%leaned — faked the run · +15.9 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.92× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -33% to 134%
Fourth Down room →Patriots33.3%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 31.2%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins100.0%leaned — went for it · +44.8 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±30.5 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 58%
Tendencies room →Patriots34.7%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 33.0%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Dolphins15.6%leaned — sat back · −12.6 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 40%
Tendencies room →Patriots4.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Dolphins21.9%right on their number · +1.9 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.5%, 21.8 points above their season mean of 15.7% and 2.9 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIA
30/45, 324 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
12.6 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected
Passing · NE
19/29, 161 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-9.1 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected
Receiving · MIA
7/12 for 121 yds, 1 TD
27% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Kendrick Bourne banked 6.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek HillWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.2 | −3.2 | 75% | 92% | 30% | 37% | 8/13, 112 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.1 | +3.6 | 75% | 88% | 27% | 44% | 7/12, 121 yd, 1 TD |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 21.8 | −5.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 30/45, 324 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 8 yd |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +6.8 | 60% | 59% | 14% | 20% | 3/4, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| Mac JonesQB · Starter QB | 12.2 | −0.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/29, 161 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 1 car, -2 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 10.6 | +0.9 | 56% | 53% | 0% | — | 13 car, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Demario DouglasWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.9 | −4.8 | 77% | 84% | 25% | 23% | 1 car, 4 yd · 5/7, 25 yd |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +4.3 | 34% | 34% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +2.7 | 30% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 7.0 | −4.8 | 58% | 66% | 14% | 3% | 10 car, 39 yd · 2/4, 11 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −0.6 | 66% | 65% | 7% | 8% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | +1.4 | 58% | 56% | 11% | 11% | 3/3, 28 yd |
| Jeffery WilsonRB | 5.7 | +0.2 | 25% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 5 car, 23 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Salvon AhmedRB | 5.7 | −2.9 | 25% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 2 car, 1 yd · 4/4, 16 yd |
| Pharaoh BrownTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | +1.5 | 40% | 25% | 7% | 9% | 2/2, 33 yd |
| Ezekiel ElliottRB | 3.6 | +0.4 | 42% | 34% | 0% | — | 7 car, 36 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −1.6 | 28% | 38% | 11% | 17% | 2/3, 11 yd |
| Braxton BerriosWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.0 | 53% | 57% | 7% | 4% | 2/3, 8 yd |
| Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.7 | 14% | 12% | 5% | 8% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| DeVante ParkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.4 | 43% | 41% | 7% | 6% | 1/2, 14 yd |
| Alec IngoldRB | 1.5 | −1.3 | 32% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −1.8 | 44% | 43% | 5% | 2% | 1/2, 4 yd |
| Jalen ReagorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.1 | 58% | 63% | 7% | 9% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Ty MontgomeryWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey [43-A.Van Ginkel] at MIA 11. 5-J.Ramsey ran ob at NE 40 for 49 yards (81-D.Douglas).
Q2 2:00 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at MIA 23 · gained nothing · -6.82 EP · −17.8% win probability
159 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 164. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 81 yards from the NE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots6
Dolphins0Patriots7Dolphins0How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Patriots7Dolphins6Patriots7Dolphins7How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
Patriots7Dolphins13Patriots7Dolphins14How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Patriots7Dolphins17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Patriots10Dolphins17Patriots10Dolphins23Patriots10Dolphins24Patriots16Dolphins24Patriots17Dolphins24Patriots17Dolphins30Patriots17Dolphins31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 19/29 | 161 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −9.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Demario Douglas |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 14% | −4.0 |
| Pharaoh Brown | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Dugger | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jabrill Peppers |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 30/45 | 324 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +12.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_08_NE_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 4.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.1 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| 7% |
| +2.8 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 11% | +1.4 |
| Demario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 25% | −3.9 |
| DeVante Parker | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 7% | +0.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 14% | −1.8 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 11% | −0.3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4% | +4.1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −3.2 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Bryant | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Barmore | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.C. Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mack Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 | −1.6 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | −8.6 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 7 | 12 | 121 | 1 | 27% | +10.2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 8 | 13 | 112 | 1 | 30% | +4.8 |
| Durham Smythe | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 7% | +2.9 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 4 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 9% | +0.7 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 5% | −0.2 |
| Jeffery Wilson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 7% | −1.3 |
| Alec Ingold | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 5% | −0.8 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2% | +0.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jones | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 6 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShon Elliott | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jerome Baker | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Wilkins | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kader Kohou | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Long Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Apple | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Sieler | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
