2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Indianapolis Colts

NO -2 ✓O 43.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.

New Orleans Saints 38–27. Biggest swing: Q2 5:50, IND +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:50NO 20 — IND 17NO ball · 2nd & 5NO 52%

(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:50IND +20% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 4:02NO +16% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 2. 29-P.Adebo to NO 29 for 27 yards (1-J.Downs).
Q3 · 5:14IND +13% win prob(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss right tackle pushed ob at NO 37 for 41 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Q1 · 7:02IND +10% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:02IND Touchdown
(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — IND 7
Q1 · 3:50NO Touchdown
(3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — IND 7
Q2 · 14:52IND Field goal
(14:52) 7-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: NO 7 — IND 10
Q2 · 11:42IND Touchdown
(11:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — IND 17
Q2 · 7:35NO Touchdown
(7:35) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-44-Z.Franklin was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. 7-T.Hill in at QB for NO. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — IND 17
Q2 · 5:50NO Touchdown
(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 21 — IND 17
Q2 · 0:26IND Field goal
(:26) 7-M.Gay 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: NO 21 — IND 20
Q3 · 0:12NO Touchdown
(:12) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 28 — IND 20
Q4 · 10:53NO Touchdown
(10:53) (Shotgun) 67-L.Young, 70-T.Penning and 99-K.Saunders reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. 7-T.Hill in at QB for NO. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 35 — IND 20
Q4 · 8:29IND Touchdown
(8:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right to 85-A.Ogletree for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 35 — IND 27
Q4 · 0:28NO Field goal
(:28) 19-B.Grupe 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.
Score after this play: NO 38 — IND 27

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Colts
Offensive plays	65	67
Total yards	512 (edge)	371
Yards per play	7.9 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.33 (edge)	0.05
Success rate	52% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	48%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.19 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	7/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Derek CarrQB

19/27, 310 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.5 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Gardner MinshewQB

23/41, 213 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.0 expected points added · -10.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

12 att, 95 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Zack MossRB

11 att, 66 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Rashid ShaheedWR

3/3 for 153 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 12.7 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Josh DownsWR

7/9 for 72 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	6	1:41	Punt
2	NO	NO 25	6	23	2:04	Punt
3	IND	IND 19	8	81	4:19	Touchdown +7
4	NO	NO 25	9	75	3:12	Touchdown +7
5	IND	IND 25	10	45	3:55	Field goal +3
6	NO	NO 25	4	0	0:34	Fumble
7	IND	NO 30	7	24	2:36	Touchdown +7
8	NO	NO 25	10	75	4:11	Touchdown +7
9	IND	IND 25	5	5	1:04	Punt
10	NO	NO 37	3	63	0:42	Touchdown +7
11	IND	IND 25	14	51	5:21	Field goal +3
12	NO	NO 25	2	0	0:21	End of half
13	NO	NO 25	8	19	3:13	Punt
14	IND	IND 14	4	11	2:22	Punt
15	NO	NO 42	6	19	2:01	Punt
16	IND	IND 3	7	64	3:40	Interception
17	NO	NO 29	8	71	3:37	Touchdown +7
18	IND	IND 25	5	4	0:25	Defensive touchdown
19	NO	NO 24	9	80	3:53	Touchdown +7
20	IND	IND 25	8	60	2:30	Touchdown +7
21	NO	NO 25	8	19	2:57	Punt
22	IND	IND 16	7	16	1:34	Punt
23	NO	NO 33	9	68	3:24	Field goal +3
24	IND	IND 25	4	4	0:24	End of game

11 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 81 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	19/27	310	2	0	1	13.5
Taysom Hill	1/2	44	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Taysom Hill	9	63	7.0	2	6.7
Alvin Kamara	17	59	3.5	1	-1.8
Jamaal Williams	6	30	5.0	0	0.7
Kendre Miller	3	10	3.3	0	-0.1
Derek Carr	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashid Shaheed	3	3	153	1	10%	12.7
Michael Thomas	4	7	68	0	24%	2.6
Alvin Kamara	4	5	51	1	17%	2.4
Chris Olave	5	9	46	0	31%	-0.4
Taysom Hill	1	1	14	0	3%	1.0
Kendre Miller	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Jamaal Williams	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Juwan Johnson	1	2	5	0	7%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Demario Davis	5	7	0.0	0	1
Jordan Howden	3	4	0.0	0	1
Marshon Lattimore	6	0	0.0	0	1
Carl Granderson	3	2	1.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	2	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	1	3	0.0	0	0
Pete Werner	2	1	0.0	0	0
Paulson Adebo	3	0	0.0	1	3
Alontae Taylor	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nathan Shepherd	0	3	0.5	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	23/41	213	2	1	2	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	12	95	7.9	0	2.2
Zack Moss	11	66	6.0	1	2.1
Gardner Minshew	1	3	3.0	0	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Downs	7	9	72	0	24%	5.3
Alec Pierce	3	5	41	0	13%	2.8
Michael Pittman	8	13	40	1	34%	-5.8
Andrew Ogletree	1	3	33	1	8%	2.3
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	11	0	5%	0.9
Zack Moss	1	1	8	0	3%	1.3
Will Mallory	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.9
Jonathan Taylor	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.1
Juwann Winfree	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Zaire Franklin	3	8	0.0	1
Shaquille Leonard	4	5	0.0	0
Tony Brown	4	2	0.0	0
Kenny Moore	4	2	0.0	0
Julian Blackmon	2	3	0.0	0
Kwity Paye	2	2	0.0	0
Rodney Thomas	3	0	0.0	0
Taven Bryan	1	1	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	1	1	1.0	0
Jaylon Jones	1	1	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2
Closing total: 43.5
NO moneyline: -130
IND moneyline: +110

Saints closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 65 — over by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NO 10 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Dennis Allen vs Shane Steichen