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2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans38
BY 11final margin
ColtsIndianapolis27
New Orleans Saints 38 at Indianapolis Colts 27. Final.
Saints -2 ✓O 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2023 Week 8
New Orleans Saints 38, Colts 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 5:50, 2nd and 5, on Rashid Shaheed — 20.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:50 · 2nd and 5
Rashid Shaheed
Saints
(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Saints closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.
New Orleans Saints 38–27. Biggest swing: Q2 5:50, Saints +20.5% win probability on one snap.
20.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zack MossColtsQ3 5:14(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss right tackle pushed ob at NO 37 for 41 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
13.4pts
Paulson AdeboSaintsQ3 4:02(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 2. 29-P.Adebo to NO 29 for 27 yards (1-J.Downs).
15.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Saints won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Colts at 5 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Colts at +0.05 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Saints180 of 189 plays carry both curves
(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.5 for ColtsExpected points −5.24 for ColtsThe model had Colts 10 points higher than the market did.play 74
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:50IND +20% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:02NO +16% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass deep right intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 29-P.Adebo at NO 2. 29-P.Adebo to NO 29 for 27 yards (1-J.Downs).
3rd · 5:14IND +13% win prob(5:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 21-Z.Moss right tackle pushed ob at NO 37 for 41 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
1st · 7:02IND +10% win prob(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:12IND +10% win prob(:12) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:17IND +9% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to IND 40 for 31 yards (45-E.Speed, 38-T.Brown).
2nd · 11:42
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rashid Shaheed's 58-yard touchdown catch with 5:50 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
4th0:28Blake Grupe·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder L.Hedley · snap Z.Wood+338–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryColts
Saints9–0Colts
512Total yards371
7.9Yards per play5.5
52%Success rate37%
50%Third-down rate44%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays5
22First downs16
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers2
The read
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.33Saints: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.05Colts: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.58Saints: +0.58 expected points added per play
−0.02Colts: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Saints: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.19Colts: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 65 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Colts’s 67 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Saints 6, Colts 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs 0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 25 team-games charted in week 8 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.7 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 65.1% in week 7 against 41.5% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 0.0% in week 7 against 15.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 11.2%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.86× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Colts6.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.6 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.59× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 26.4 points below their season mean of 26.4% and 1.7 times their own 15.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:50 · Saints · 2nd & 5 at NO 42 · gained 58 · +5.24 EP · +18.8% win probability
178 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 184. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 81 yards from the IND 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
40%
Yards
882
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.0962%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.3045%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4550%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+1.3344%
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR7-0.5386%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3550%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 48
Saints0Colts6
Saints0Colts7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Saints 10
Saints6Colts7
Saints7Colts7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Colts 18
The period ended10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Saints 2
2nd quarter52 plays
Saints7Colts10
Field goal2 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
Saints7Colts16
Saints7Colts17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 30 to the Saints 1
Saints13Colts17
Saints14Colts17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Colts 20
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Saints20Colts17
Saints21Colts17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Saints 42
Saints21Colts20
Field goal15 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Saints 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 14 to the Colts 20
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Colts 39
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Colts 3 to the Saints 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Saints27Colts20
Saints28Colts20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Colts 16
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Punt2 plays
Saints34Colts20
Saints35Colts20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Colts 1
Saints35Colts26
Saints35Colts27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Saints 33
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 44
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 16 to the Colts 27
Saints38Colts27
Field goal15 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Colts 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
