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DYNATYZE
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New York Jets 13, Giants 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 6:17, 3rd and 5, on Zach Wilson — 38.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Jets closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
New York Jets 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 6:17, Jets +38.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 6:17 · 3rd and 5
Zach Wilson
Jets
(6:17) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 86-M.Taylor. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at NYG 45 - No Play.
38.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Allen LazardJetsQ4 0:17(:17) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard to NYG 17 for 29 yards (22-A.Jackson).
30.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsOT 8:21(8:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to NYJ 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
22.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — -0.15 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — -0.35 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.79 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Jets183 of 196 plays carry both curves
(6:17) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 86-M.Taylor. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at NYG 45 - No Play.
Swing −38.6 for GiantsExpected points −0.77 for GiantsModel and market agree here.play 192
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 6:17NYG +39% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 86-M.Taylor. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at NYG 45 - No Play.
4th · 0:17NYG +31% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard to NYG 17 for 29 yards (22-A.Jackson).
Overtime · 8:21NYG +23% win prob(8:21) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to NYJ 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
4th · 1:33NYJ +20% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 26 for -15 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux).
Overtime · 7:26NYG +18% win prob(7:26) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to 50 for 11 yards (25-D.Banks). Penalty on NYG-25-D.Banks, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 13:43NYJ +17% win prob(13:43) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson sacked at NYJ 32 for -10 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). FUMBLES (5-K.Thibodeaux) [5-K.Thibodeaux], RECOVERED by NYG-55-J.Ward at NYJ 26. 55-J.Ward to NYJ 19 for 7 yards (60-C.McGovern; 71-W.Schweitzer). Penalty on NYJ-60-C.McGovern, Offensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 33-yard field goal with 6:12 left in overtime put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:11Graham Gano·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
4th0:01Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.Hennessy+310–10
Overtime6:12Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+313–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryGiants
Jets6–2Giants
251Total yards194
4.1Yards per play2.8
31%Success rate23%
13%Third-down rate11%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
10First downs7
4Sacks taken4
2Turnovers0
The read
Jets ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.79 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Jets: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.37Giants: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.35Jets: −0.35 expected points added per play
−0.79Giants: −0.79 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.56Jets: −0.56 expected points added per play
−0.15Giants: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 61 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Giants’s 70 at 34%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Giants 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−3.0σtheir own normal+3.0σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NYG's pass rate over expected, −26.7 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 14.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −9.4 pts in week 5.
2.8 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.9-swing turn from week 7.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −2.8σ from their own normal
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYG's early-down pass rate, 27.5%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 9.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 46.0% in week 6.
2.5 times their own weekly swing below their number.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points. · −2.5σ from their own normal
NYJ's sack or hit rate, 29.2%, is past their previous high of 22.9% in week 4 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 8.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 21 pts
leaned — got home · +12.1 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+1.48× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Giants21.4%
leaned — got home · +9.6 vs their 11.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -26.7 pts, 24.9 points below their season mean of -1.8 pts and 2.8 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
78Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
61Max MitchellT · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%64 snaps
2Zach WilsonQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
17Garrett WilsonWR · Full-time89%57 snaps
10Allen LazardWR · Full-time81%52 snaps
65Xavier Newman-JohnsonG · Heavy rotation72%46 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Heavy rotation69%44 snaps
20Breece HallRB · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
54Billy TurnerT · Heavy rotation56%36 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Rotational47%30 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Rotational44%28 snaps
89Jeremy RuckertTE · Rotational42%27 snaps
86Malik TaylorWR · Rotational36%23 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Rotational28%18 snaps
82Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational25%16 snaps
32Michael CarterRB · Situational23%15 snaps
33Dalvin CookRB · Situational13%8 snaps
48Nick BawdenFB · Situational8%5 snaps
16Jason BrownleeWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Joe TippmannCJarrick Bernard-ConverseCBCarl LawsonDEZaire BarnesILBIsrael AbanikandaRBIrvin CharlesWRRandall CobbWR
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Z.Wilson pass+39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:17) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 86-M.Taylor. PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Jackson, Defensive Pass Interference, 30 yards, enforced at NYG 45 - No Play.
OT 6:17 · Jets · 3rd & 5 at NYG 45 · gained nothing · +0.77 EP · +38.6% win probability
181 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 35 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 190. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 35 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 75 yards from the NYG 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
-0.29
Success rate
29%
Yards
445
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.3626%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.4171%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.7358%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11-0.3555%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.6333%
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 42
Jets0Giants3
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 12
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Jets 26
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 44
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 20
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Jets 49
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 2 to the Giants 9
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Jets6Giants3
Jets7Giants3
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
No good5 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Jets 29
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 37 to the Jets 45
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 26
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 35
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 28
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 41
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 35
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 12
Punt4 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Jets7Giants9
Jets7Giants10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Jets 5
Punt8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 32
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 34 to the Giants 37
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 32
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 42
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 25
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Giants 36
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Giants 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended13 plays, from the Giants 3 to the Giants 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Jets 17
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Jets10Giants10
Field goal5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Giants 17
Overtime16 plays
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Jets13Giants10
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Giants 15
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jetscategory by categoryGiants
Jets0
Giants3
