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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · FedExField
FinalThe verdict · 2023 Week 8
It turned at Q4 8:53, 2nd and 10, on DeVonta Smith — 24.0 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 38–31. Biggest swing: Q4 8:53, Eagles +24.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:53 · 2nd and 10
DeVonta Smith
Eagles
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
24.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — +0.00 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.75 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Julio Jones's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:22 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Julio Jones8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+731–2411 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Commanders ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Commanders’s 69 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Commanders 4.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's pass rate over expected, +17.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
WAS's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
PHI's play-action rate turned over: 36.1% in week 7 against 12.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 11.1% in week 7 against 27.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles3.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their -1.5 pts, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 60 snaps
Commanders17.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +11.9 vs their 5.4 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.62× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 91%
Tendencies room →Eagles63.0%inside their normal wobble · +6.3 vs their 56.8%, and they swing ±9.7 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 46 early downs
Commanders77.8%leaned — passed early · +13.2 vs their 64.6%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 54 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 43%
Tendencies room →Eagles12.2%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.7 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.19× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Commanders20.0%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 108%
Fourth Down room →Eagles—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 59.2%.
Commanders—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 35.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Eagles27.3%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 21.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Commanders39.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.6 vs their 28.5%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.97× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -10% to 35%
Tendencies room →Eagles10.9%inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Commanders9.8%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
WAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 17.4 pts, 11.9 points above their season mean of 5.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · WAS
39/52, 397 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
3.6 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
29/38, 319 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
23.6 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
A.J. Brown banked 18.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. BrownWR · Featured Receiver | 33.0 | +18.9 | 98% | 98% | 23% | 39% | 8/8, 130 yd, 2 TD |
| Sam HowellQB · Starter QB | 31.0 | +7.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 39/52, 397 yd, 4 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 11 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 27.4 | +7.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/38, 319 yd, 4 TD · 4 car, 6 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Featured Receiver | 24.8 | +8.3 | 85% | 89% | 20% | 25% | 8/10, 108 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Featured Receiver | 22.9 | +12.3 | 97% | 100% | 20% | 23% | 7/7, 99 yd, 1 TD |
| Jamison CrowderWR · Rotational Receiver | 22.5 | +11.5 | 32% | 35% | 14% | 14% | 7/7, 95 yd, 1 TD |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Featured Receiver | 17.3 | −3.9 | 94% | 96% | 24% | 32% | 5/12, 63 yd, 1 TD |
| Logan ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +2.1 | 74% | 84% | 16% | 14% | 6/8, 44 yd, 1 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Bell Cow Back | 14.4 | +0.2 | 70% | 61% | 9% | 11% | 16 car, 57 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 7 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.9 | +2.2 | 49% | 40% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 59 yd · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Antonio GibsonRB | 9.2 | +0.6 | 51% | 60% | 10% | 2% | 2 car, 14 yd · 5/5, 28 yd |
| Julio JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.8 | +2.6 | 24% | 29% | 6% | 7% | 1/2, 8 yd, 1 TD |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −2.3 | 92% | 93% | 20% | 9% | 4/7, 36 yd |
| Curtis SamuelWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.2 | +0.5 | 19% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 4/4, 22 yd |
| Kenneth GainwellRB · Receiving Back | 5.6 | −4.6 | 30% | 39% | 14% | 0% | 2 car, -4 yd · 5/5, 30 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | +0.5 | 47% | 36% | 2% | 4% | 1/1, 17 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.6 | 48% | 56% | 6% | 13% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Boston ScottRB | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Alex ArmahRB | 1.0 | −0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Grant CalcaterraTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Dyami BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.8 | 31% | 27% | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Byron PringleWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:53 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at WAS 38 · gained 38 · +4.14 EP · +21.7% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles0
Commanders6Eagles0Commanders7Eagles3Commanders7How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles3Commanders13Eagles3Commanders14Eagles9Commanders14Eagles10Commanders14Eagles10Commanders17How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles16Commanders17Eagles17Commanders17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles17Commanders23Eagles17Commanders24How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles23Commanders24Eagles24Commanders24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Eagles30Commanders24Eagles31Commanders24Eagles37Commanders24Eagles38Commanders24Eagles38Commanders30Eagles38Commanders31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Commanders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 29/38 | 319 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +23.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 | −1.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | −5.7 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 8 | 130 | 2 | 23% | +16.2 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 7 | 99 | 1 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakobe Dean | 9 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Blankenship | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Sydney Brown |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Howell | 39/52 | 397 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2023_08_PHI_WAS
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 69 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| -4 |
| -2.0 |
| 0 |
| −6.5 |
| +9.2 |
| Dallas Goedert | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 20% | −0.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 14% | +2.5 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 6% | +1.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 9% | −1.3 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Boston Scott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 6 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| James Bradberry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Haason Reddick | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Tuipulotu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eli Ricks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fletcher Cox | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brian Robinson | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Sam Howell | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahan Dotson | 8 | 10 | 108 | 1 | 20% | +7.9 |
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 14% | +7.2 |
| Terry McLaurin | 5 | 12 | 63 | 1 | 24% | −9.3 |
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 8 | 44 | 1 | 16% | +2.1 |
| Antonio Gibson | 5 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 10% | +0.4 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 8% | −0.9 |
| Brian Robinson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| John Bates | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 2% | +1.1 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Byron Pringle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Mayo | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Curl | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Percy Butler | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Montez Sweat | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaleke Hudson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamin Davis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Benjamin St-Juste | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daron Payne | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
