2023 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 29, 2023 · FedExField

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

Washington Commanders

PHI -7 pushO 42.5 ✓Eagles closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Philadelphia Eagles 38–31. Biggest swing: Q4 8:53, WAS +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 8:53PHI 23 — WAS 24PHI ball · 2nd & 10WAS 67%

(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 8:53WAS +24% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 12:06WAS +23% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:16PHI +21% win prob(10:16) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to WAS 1 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by WAS-29-K.Fuller at WAS 1.
Q3 · 10:21WAS +19% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at WAS 32 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:19WAS Touchdown
(7:19) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 0 — WAS 7
Q1 · 2:15PHI Field goal
(2:15) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.
Score after this play: PHI 3 — WAS 7
Q2 · 12:44WAS Touchdown
(12:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep middle to 1-J.Dotson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 3 — WAS 14
Q2 · 0:38PHI Touchdown
(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 10 — WAS 14
Q2 · 0:06WAS Field goal
(:06) 6-J.Slye 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
Score after this play: PHI 10 — WAS 17
Q3 · 4:22PHI Touchdown
(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Allen]. Penalty on WAS-31-K.Curl, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 17 — WAS 17
Q4 · 12:06WAS Touchdown
(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 17 — WAS 24
Q4 · 8:53PHI Touchdown
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 24 — WAS 24
Q4 · 7:22PHI Touchdown
(7:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-J.Jones for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 31 — WAS 24
Q4 · 1:53PHI Touchdown
(1:53) 0-D.Swift left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 38 — WAS 24
Q4 · 1:08WAS Touchdown
(1:08) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass deep left to 83-J.Crowder for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PHI 38 — WAS 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Eagles	Commanders
Offensive plays	60	69
Total yards	375	472 (edge)
Yards per play	6.3	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	42%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	80%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.62 (edge)	0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.75	0.00 (edge)
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	7/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · WAS

Sam HowellQB

39/52, 397 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

3.6 expected points added · +8.4% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

29/38, 319 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

23.6 expected points added · +15.3% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Brian RobinsonRB

10 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

16 att, 57 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

A.J. BrownWR

8/8 for 130 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 16.2 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Jahan DotsonWR

8/10 for 108 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	10	23	5:21	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 8	4	7	1:32	Punt
3	WAS	WAS 38	4	62	0:54	Touchdown +7
4	PHI	PHI 25	12	42	5:02	Field goal +3
5	WAS	WAS 25	11	90	4:31	Touchdown +7
6	PHI	PHI 25	11	68	5:52	Fumble
7	WAS	WAS 7	9	58	5:00	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	PHI 35	8	65	1:14	Touchdown +7
9	WAS	WAS 25	6	37	0:33	Field goal +3
10	PHI	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
11	PHI	PHI 25	9	38	4:51	Fumble
12	WAS	WAS 1	6	29	2:22	Punt
13	PHI	PHI 49	8	51	3:30	Touchdown +7
14	WAS	WAS 25	16	70	7:14	Touchdown +7
15	PHI	PHI 25	9	80	3:16	Touchdown +7
16	WAS	WAS 25	3	0	0:45	Interception
17	PHI	WAS 7	3	7	0:45	Touchdown +7
18	WAS	WAS 25	8	35	3:04	Turnover on downs
19	PHI	PHI 40	4	1	1:04	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 20	4	-4	0:56	Turnover on downs
21	PHI	WAS 16	4	16	0:23	Touchdown +7
22	WAS	WAS 28	6	72	0:49	Touchdown +7
23	PHI	WAS 49	3	0	1:01	End of game

11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	29/38	319	4	0	2	23.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	16	57	3.6	1	-1.7
Jalen Hurts	4	6	1.5	0	-5.7
Kenneth Gainwell	2	-4	-2.0	0	-6.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	8	8	130	2	23%	16.2
DeVonta Smith	7	7	99	1	20%	9.2
Dallas Goedert	4	7	36	0	20%	-0.3
Kenneth Gainwell	5	5	30	0	14%	2.5
Julio Jones	1	2	8	1	6%	1.8
D'Andre Swift	2	3	7	0	9%	-1.3
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	2	5	0	6%	-0.5
Boston Scott	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nakobe Dean	9	2	0.0	0	0
Reed Blankenship	7	2	0.0	1	1
Sydney Brown	6	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	3	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	3	2	0.0	0	2
James Bradberry	2	1	0.0	0	1
Haason Reddick	3	0	1.0	0	0
Marlon Tuipulotu	1	1	0.0	0	0
Eli Ricks	1	1	0.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	1	1	0.0	0	1

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Howell	39/52	397	4	1	1	3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Brian Robinson	10	59	5.9	-0.1
Antonio Gibson	2	14	7.0	0.3
Sam Howell	3	11	3.7	1.8
Dyami Brown	1	0	0.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jahan Dotson	8	10	108	1	20%	7.9
Jamison Crowder	7	7	95	1	14%	7.2
Terry McLaurin	5	12	63	1	24%	-9.3
Logan Thomas	6	8	44	1	16%	2.1
Antonio Gibson	5	5	28	0	10%	0.4
Curtis Samuel	4	4	22	0	8%	-0.9
Brian Robinson	2	2	20	0	4%	1.3
John Bates	1	1	17	0	2%	1.1
Alex Armah	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Byron Pringle	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
David Mayo	5	3	0.0	0
Kamren Curl	5	2	0.0	1
Percy Butler	4	3	0.0	1
Montez Sweat	3	2	1.0	0
Khaleke Hudson	1	3	0.0	0
Jamin Davis	3	1	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	1	0.0	0
Danny Johnson	3	1	0.0	0
Benjamin St-Juste	3	0	0.0	1
Daron Payne	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -7
Closing total: 42.5
PHI moneyline: -305
WAS moneyline: +245

Eagles closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 69 — over by 26.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: PHI 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Nick Sirianni vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.