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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Eagles169 of 181 plays carry both curves
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −24.0 for CommandersExpected points −4.14 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 12 points higher than the market did.play 140
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:53WAS +24% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:06WAS +23% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:16PHI +21% win prob(10:16) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to WAS 1 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by WAS-29-K.Fuller at WAS 1.
3rd · 10:21WAS +19% win prob(10:21) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at WAS 32 - No Play. Penalty on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
4th · 8:10PHI +18% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship at WAS 32. 32-R.Blankenship to WAS 15 for 17 yards (69-T.Larsen; 24-A.Gibson). PENALTY on WAS-87-J.Bates, Unnecessary Roughness, 8 yards, enforced at WAS 15.
2nd · 6:59PHI +16% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell left end to WAS 5 for -2 yards (31-K.Curl). FUMBLES (31-K.Curl), RECOVERED by WAS-98-P.Mathis at WAS 7.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Julio Jones's 8-yard touchdown catch with 7:22 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:19Terry McLaurin·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+70–7
1st2:15Jake Elliott·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap R.Lovato+33–7
2nd12:44Jahan Dotson·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+73–14
4th1:08Jamison Crowder·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Howellfrom Sam Howell+738–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryCommanders
Eagles2–7Commanders
375Total yards472
6.3Yards per play6.8
42%Success rate51%
62%Third-down rate58%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays6
20First downs25
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Eagles: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.07Commanders: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Eagles: +0.62 expected points added per play
+0.09Commanders: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.75Eagles: −0.75 expected points added per play
+0.00Commanders: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 60 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Commanders’s 69 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 7, Commanders 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
WAS's pass rate over expected, +17.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
WAS's early-down pass rate, 77.8%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 8 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
PHI's play-action rate turned over: 36.1% in week 7 against 12.2% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
PHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 11.1% in week 7 against 27.3% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 25 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.7 vs their 13.6%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Commanders9.8%
right on their number · −2.8 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteWAS's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 17.4 pts, 11.9 points above their season mean of 5.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+22% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(8:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 6-D.Smith for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:53 · Eagles · 2nd & 10 at WAS 38 · gained 38 · +4.14 EP · +21.7% win probability
167 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 75 yards from the WAS 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
44%
Yards
846
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0182%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.4377%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.4638%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.2771%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0350%
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 47
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 8 to the Eagles 15
Eagles0Commanders6
Eagles0Commanders7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the Eagles 26
Eagles3Commanders7
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 47
2nd quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCombination coverageMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles3Commanders13
Eagles3Commanders14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 41 to the Eagles 15
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 7 to the Eagles 35
Eagles9Commanders14
Eagles10Commanders14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Commanders 16
Eagles10Commanders17
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 38
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 1
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Eagles16Commanders17
Eagles17Commanders17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 49 to the Commanders 25
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 39
4th quarter59 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles17Commanders23
Eagles17Commanders24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 37 to the Eagles 7
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Eagles23Commanders24
Eagles24Commanders24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Commanders 38
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 9, three deep with a matchMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Eagles30Commanders24
Eagles31Commanders24
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Eagles 40
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Eagles 41
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 25
Eagles37Commanders24
Eagles38Commanders24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Commanders 16 to the Commanders 7
Eagles38Commanders30
Eagles38Commanders31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Eagles 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -7
Closing total
42.5
Eagles moneyline
-305
Commanders moneyline
+245
Eagles closed -7 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 69 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north-east; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Ron Rivera
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
3rd · 4:22WAS +14% win prob(4:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Allen]. Penalty on WAS-31-K.Curl, Illegal Contact, declined.
2nd · 1:51PHI +13% win prob(1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-J.Bradberry).
